Drafting outside of the top 3 picks 2016

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Eh, not really. Just more interesting to see a poll finally and see how many people actually like McLeod best. It's hard to tell from our draft thread, seemed like a few people were really big on him. He hasn't looked like a top 10 pick so far this U18 but he's got time to turn it around.

Kind of reminds me of Scheifele who was a late riser and not in many top 10 rankings up to the draft but was picked 7th by the Jets. When you look back it was a pretty good pick.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by New Era

I wonder how many bothered to watch these guys play or if the votes are based off of information from draft preview articles? That would be interesting to know. All I can say is that every time I watched the Steelheads I was blown away by McLeod and underwhelmed by Nylander. That wasn't a shot a Nylander either. McLeod was just that much more noticeable and impressive.

100% agree with this assessment, but I still have Nylander (who I don't like all that much) just slightly ahead. The only reason is that I think he fits the team better, and has a higher offensive season.

McLeod I think pushes the pace way more than Nylander. McLeod is a guy that will be 'the guy' on the line - the proverbial 'stirs the drink' kind of player, no question. Nylander will be more of the complimentary piece to a line who can finish well (I think he has a much nicer shot) and is more of a sheer skills kind of prospect, but one that I think will be a good top 6 winger.

An elite 3rd line center > a good 2nd (with 1st line upside) winger to me in terms of value - and I feel hypocritical in stating that Nylander should be drafted by the Flames ahead of McLeod because I always think teams should draft BPA. If it wasn't for the huge hole in top 6 wingers, I would be all over the McLeod pick. Fisher is a guy that helps any team win (well, at least Fisher in his prime). These guys are invaluable. Just that damn huge hole...

I think that Gaudreau suffers a bit on the road because it is easier for teams to match-up against the Flames. The Flames need a higher-threat offensive player - though one can make the argument that the Flames also need a CORSI-darling as well - a strong puck-possession type. Maybe Nylander should be in the 'next group' with McLeod, rather than just a bit ahead as he is right now in my personal rankings - I just think it is a bigger need, though once again, I always preach that BPA should always be taken without hesitation. (and I don't really like Nylander all that much actually...).

[kyuss275]

Dubois, that is all.


Followed by Nylander, then Chychrun, but they are way bellow my want of Dubois.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

By that same vein though shouldn't your top three then be:

1)Mackinnon
2)Monahan
3)Barkov

Personally even 3 years post draft I have a hard time seeing any major difference between those 3. Each of them has clearly had a season better than the other two Mackinnon in the rookie season, Monahan last season, and Barkov this season.

My explanation was over-simplified but in the case of Nich I think you have to evaluate primarily on the basis of offensive production - as that is the type of player he is. So the fact that Domi is outscoring him coupled with some red flags for Nich, makes it hard for me to see how one would draft anyone else.

In the case of the top 3 - there are arguments that could be made for all 3 - and the difference between the 3 is somewhat trivial. All are great players. I take Barkov because he is the best 2 way player on the list, and is now showing he can also produce offensively, which was the biggest question market about him.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I get the hesitancy to draft high out of the Q but your data also shows a significant success rate for the top player(s) out of the first round.

In the case of Dubois, you also have to factor in his age and the success he has had already.

I would think looking at the last decade and a bit of drafting there haven't been many top 10 players from the Q. Looking at the list that have been draft in the top 10 you have the following players.

2004 - Picard (8th)
2005 - Crosby (1st)
2006 - Brassard (6th), Sheppard (9th)
2007 - Voracek (7th)
2011 - Huberdeau (3rd)
2013 - Mackinnon (1st), Drouin (3rd)
2014 - Elhers (9th)
2015 - Meier (9th)

Jury is still out for the recent drafts, but at the top of the draft there are some things to like. Also Dubois Q numbers (62GP 99 PTS 112 PIMS) are pretty similar to Huberdeau (67GP 105 PTS 88 PIMS)

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

An elite 3rd line center > a good 2nd (with 1st line upside) winger to me in terms of value - and I feel hypocritical in stating that Nylander should be drafted by the Flames ahead of McLeod because I always think teams should draft BPA.

Yep. And a top 3 defenseman is arguably worth more than either of those. Maybe we should be moving guys like Sergachev and Juolevi ahead of Nylander/McLeod in our personal rankings?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yep. And a top 3 defenseman is arguably worth more than either of those. Maybe we should be moving guys like Sergachev and Juolevi ahead of Nylander/McLeod in our personal rankings?

Follow the Nashville model and trade from a position of strength to get that top six forward. Not a bad idea if missing out on one of the top forwards you grab that Dman. Sergachev intrigues me as this team could use that threat of a heavy shot from the point.

[Vulcan]

I went with Dubois but I'd like to add Tyson Jost who may go a lot earlier than expected. He's Canada's captain at the World Under 18s and the leading tournament scorer. Just a good all round centre who easily is outshining McLeod.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yep. And a top 3 defenseman is arguably worth more than either of those. Maybe we should be moving guys like Sergachev and Juolevi ahead of Nylander/McLeod in our personal rankings?

They both already are in mine as per my post in page 3

I am not sure any other defencemen will leapfrog Nylander and McLeod on my rankings - Bean looks really intriguing to me. I am not sure Bean is in my personal top 10, but I find him intriguing as I think he also has the potential to be a scoring #2 guy - but want to see more out of him defensively and physically (at least, more able to control forwards on the boards - he is skinny though, and I am sure he will fill out - but he is rather weak looking to me).

Out of curiosity, where do you rank Gauthier personally? I had him firmly in my top 10 even 2 months ago, and thought he would have been moving up.. but now I feel as the more I look at other players, the lower I have him ranked. I just see soooo much potential there, and I always say that he could be such a great addition to Calgary, but then I see Rene Bourque 2.0 at times a lot in his game. Is it just me?

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by New Era

I wonder how many bothered to watch these guys play or if the votes are based off of information from draft preview articles? That would be interesting to know. All I can say is that every time I watched the Steelheads I was blown away by McLeod and underwhelmed by Nylander. That wasn't a shot a Nylander either. McLeod was just that much more noticeable and impressive.

Yeah, I think we got it, considering you've mentioned this about 10 times already. You repeating your opinion isn't going to sway anyone elses.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by JJ1532

Yeah, I think we got it, considering you've mentioned this about 10 times already. You repeating your opinion isn't going to sway anyone elses.

It also doesn't change what everyone else sees. I've seen many of the top 10-20 guys play a few times now, and I haven't been overwhelmed by McLeod's play. Based on what I've seen, I don't even think he goes top 8. We all see different things when we watch hockey. It's part of the beauty of the game. But prospect profiles and discussions can keep us from deviating too far from reality.

Nylander is the more intriguing one for me. He does have great offensive abilities, but I'm not sure how much he'd actually help our team win. I think he'd be a solid powerplay tool and he'll probably continue to develop well. I've heard people say that while he has a lower ceiling than his brother, he may end being better defensively. But he wouldn't make as much sense for the Flames based on need at the moment.

[albertGQ]

Nylander keeps growing on me. I still pick Mattthews, Laine, Pul-an-RV and Dubois before him but he's closing the gap.

[genetic_phreek]

I've said this before in another thread, I think Michael Mcleod all day. He has size, he is a RH shot, and has game-breaking speed. I just feel he would be a good fit for for the Flames. After Mcleod I would probably take Nylander for the skill factor.

Most people on here are picking PLD or Tkachuk but I just feel they don't have that next level skating.

I also feel like the Flames are a lot closer to the Blackhawks/TB speed and skill style than it would be to Kings/Ducks. From what I've seen so far with Mcleod is he creates a lot of space with his speed for Nylander in the OHL and he could do the same for Gaudreau/Monahan/Bennett.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Out of curiosity, where do you rank Gauthier personally? I had him firmly in my top 10 even 2 months ago, and thought he would have been moving up.. but now I feel as the more I look at other players, the lower I have him ranked. I just see soooo much potential there, and I always say that he could be such a great addition to Calgary, but then I see Rene Bourque 2.0 at times a lot in his game. Is it just me?

Haven't seen him enough to have a strong opinion. So I'm referring to my favorite scouting resources where he's dropped. Nobody seems to be talking about him these days. It's really hard to tell with him. Maybe I'll go back and watch a WJC game with him to get a better sense of his game.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I've said this before in another thread, I think Michael Mcleod all day. He has size, he is a RH shot, and has game-breaking speed. I just feel he would be a good fit for for the Flames. After Mcleod I would probably take Nylander for the skill factor.

I think some of you have been mesmerized by his speed. And frankly at these U18s he doesn't look two steps ahead of anyone. His speed has generated no breakaways that I remember and certainly he hasn't done anything game breaking with it in 4 games. He looks like a checking centre to me. Think Backlund with more size, more speed but less skill. I wouldn't draft a guy who looks like a 3rd liner with a top 8 pick this draft when there are potential top line wingers available. You have to look at the entire package, not just his skating.

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

Most people on here are picking PLD or Tkachuk but I just feel they don't have that next level skating.

PLD has very good skating, not as far behind McLeod's as you seem to be suggesting. Tkachuk isn't blazing fast but skating certainly isn't going to hold him back. Both players have a ton more offensive skill than McLeod IMO and that's why people are hoping for them if I had to guess. They also play wing which is a huge need for us both short term and long term.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I've said this before in another thread, I think Michael Mcleod all day. He has size, he is a RH shot, and has game-breaking speed. I just feel he would be a good fit for for the Flames. After Mcleod I would probably take Nylander for the skill factor.

Most people on here are picking PLD or Tkachuk but I just feel they don't have that next level skating.

I also feel like the Flames are a lot closer to the Blackhawks/TB speed and skill style than it would be to Kings/Ducks. From what I've seen so far with Mcleod is he creates a lot of space with his speed for Nylander in the OHL and he could do the same for Gaudreau/Monahan/Bennett.

I have always seen the exact opposite, Nylander absolutely inflates Mcleod's game. I think you are seeing that with the U18 right now and Mcleod's game, without Nylander he has not looked all that great. I am not saying he won't be a decent player but he is not in the same ballpark as the other guys like Nylander, Laine, Pull..whatever, and Mathews. I don't think he is as good as Tkachuk or Dubois either.

[868904]

What's the deal with Sergachev?

When I watch the youtube videos of all the prospects, I see him as being at the upper echelon of the skill spectrum, right up there with the top 3. He seems to have everything you want in a franchise type defenceman.

Does he have poor character or is his defensive play (which isn't always shown on youtube videos) really poor?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by 868904

What's the deal with Sergachev?

When I watch the youtube videos of all the prospects, I see him as being at the upper echelon of the skill spectrum, right up there with the top 3. He seems to have everything you want in a franchise type defenceman.

Does he have poor character or is his defensive play (which isn't always shown on youtube videos) really poor?

There's not a lot of criticisms on his game overall and yes a lot of people do seem to think he has huge upside amongst the best d-men in this draft. He could go as high as top 5-6 if the teams drafting there prefer him over Juolevi/Chychrun. He's got a howitzer of a shot, loves to jump into the play, good skater, can play physical, needs a bit more work in his own end (which can be said of most d-men his age).

I think he's talked about less on this board because our defensive depth is extremely solid and defensemen picks are less sexy overall than picking a scoring forward. I'd have no issues if the Flames think he's the highest upside player left at #6/7. I have mild concerns about Russian factor with Russians but it's alleviated quite a bit by coming over to NA, acclimatizing to the NA style, learning the NA game and its much easier to learn English getting immersed in your teens then it is coming over in your early 20's. I think the risk of a player like Sergachev leaving NA to go back to Russia is a lot less than a guy who plays in Russia til his early 20's.

He's an intriguing prospect.

[Robbob]

Anyone reminded or get a little of Rico Fata vibe with McLeod? I don't know what it is but some of the descriptions/comments are giving me reservations.

[Loudog]

Why is CP so much higher on Dubois than Tkachuck? I like both of them and have a hard time choosing between the two. Just curious as to why it is so one sided on here?