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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Well after the not quite quarter point of the season this would be my observations.
AFC East: It's a one trick pony.
Division clearly belongs to the Bills. I'll be surprised if the Bills don't work over the Patriots this coming week to reinforce who the boss is. Really it's hard to find any losses on the schedule for the Bills if they show up and play. The three toughest games left on their schedule vs. KC, Tampa, and Philly are all at home. Looks like a pretty east jog to the 1 seed in the AFC for them.
Patriots are coming around and maybe next year might be able to at least make the Bills think about the Division. Really easy schedule to date, and after this week it's another trio of suck with the Saints, Titans, and Browns up. So they could be 5-3 by week 8 and there could be 9 wins to be had for them which will have them in the conversation for the playoffs.
Dolphins are on the decline here. The defence is not very good, and the offence can still be functional wihout Tyreek. But I see a 7-10 team at best here.
Jets are still well the Jets. Turnover prone, and not as stout on defence it's going to be a long season for Aaron Glenn.
AFC South: Maybe not as bad as it's been.
Indianapolis is one of the surprise teams of the season for sure. They caught a bad Dolphins team in week 1, got some breaks and a generous call to win in week 2, railed a hapless Titans team in week 3, and nearly took out a pretty good team in the Rams. I think they can hang in there, but playing the AFC and NFC West doesn't give them as many ole's as a team like the Patriots get. So could be tough to get 10 wins or more.
Jacksonville has similarities to the Colts in that they're shockingly close to being 4-0 on the season. Turnover luck has been in their favor thus far and they have been effective running the ball. That said they draw the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams in their next three all at home. So if they're 3-4 after that, they might fade away after that. If they win a couple of those, and if Cohen can get Lawrence to stop turning the ball over, it could be a confident team.
Houston has a big game at Baltimore this weekend. The Texans have beaten up on a bad Division the past couple of years, but it's not as bad this year and with a tough 4 game stretch coming up and a bye mixed in after it's a must win game for a team who hasn't been very good against playoff teams. The offensive line sucks, but they have a strong defence, and Woody Marks might provide a spark to their offence. Still I have a hard time seeing the Texans rallying to finish with more than 8 wins.
Tennessee...We keep it a buck we ass seems pretty accurate here. Until the finally get rid of Brian Callahan, that's exactly what they'll be.
AFC North: Might be an imposter
Steelers seem to be a complete fraud at 3-1, but you can't take the wins away, and with the current health of the Ravens, the Burrow injury, and the Browns...9 wins might be enough here.
Ravens looked great until a Derrick Henry fumble, and from that it seems to have snowballed on them. They have a pretty significant injury list and the loss of Madabuike is huge for the defensive line for the rest of the season. If they can get to their bye without too many more guys going down and regroup, I still think they can turn it around as they have the best QB, and their schedule does ease up. The 2015 Chiefs rallied from a 1-5 start to win 11 games and get in the playoffs. The Ravens don't have a Superbowl champion inside their Division and an extra game to work with so they could still come back and get to 10 or 11 wins which will take this Division.
Cincinnati should not be as bad as they've been the past two games. But they were fortunate to start out with 2 wins too. Without Burrow this team will struggle to win 5 more games until they get him back and if they're 5-10 and he could come back...they might as well just shut him down.
Cleveland...really the only thing left here is do they end up using 2 starting QB's or will they eventually turn to Shedeur? From a defensive yardage perspective the Browns defence is one of the NFL's elite units. But the offence is just that bad.
AFC West: Menage a trois?
Los Angeles Chargers have a big leg up having won Division games against the rest of their competition. They also just lost to the Giants...so they're still prone to those flat spots. They also lost Alt and Becton on the O-Line here after already losing Slater at the start of the season. It's still their Division to lose but they still need to keep their foot on the gas.
Denver Broncos are a questionable call away from being 3-1, and also had a 4th quarter lead in their other loss. Nix has been a bit hot and cold to start the season and they don't need him to be the GOAT MVP to be a team that wins 10 or 11 games. They should be in the mix for a playoff spot.
Kansas City after 10 pretty brutal quarters to start the season have shown a bit of life since that time. The Chargers pantsed them in week one, but the Defence has been good the past 3 games. The offence maybe get's a bit better here once Rice get's back from his suspension. But they still have some horrible play calls and the players really don't execute very well under that dolt that is Matt Nagy. Seems like Andy Reid's offensive creativity is more mid than elite these days. Still a playoff thread and they have that Patriot like aura where teams fear who they could be which is scarier than what the really are.
Las Vegas, well a blocked field goal that puts them at 1-3 vs being at 2-2 might sum up who they are. They did finally see some things from Jeanty, although the Bears defence may have played a role. Geno seems to be good one week, and awful the next. That won't cut it in this Division with the competition they have. They might win 6-7 games, but Caroll still needs a bit more time to put his stamp on this team.
NFC East: Fly Eagles fly
Philly still appears to be the class of this Division. They seem to remind me of last years Chiefs where the style is hard on the eyes at times, but they find ways to win these games. They're still a tough as anyone in the league in the trenches. Barkley does look a bit slower than last year, and it's hard to say if they'll ever get their passing game going with what is a talented duo of receivers and some other good complementary pass catchers. But no one has been able to take them down yet, and that might keep up for a while.
Washington is a team who spiked last year so regression was likley unavoidable. So far they've only had their star sophomore QB for 2 of their games and he should be back for their next one. It's a team that can be dynamic on offence, but the defence shows some vulnerabilities. They're not suprising teams like they did last year so they might have a tough climb to get back in the playoffs.
Dallas has a pretty horrific defence. But the offence has been pretty good at times. Still I think this is a 6-7 win team that lights up the scoreboard at home, but also comes shockingly close to giving up 600 points.
New York Giants had a bit of optimism after Dart's first drive...only to lose their best offensive player the next series. I think they could be a bit flat in New Orleans this week, and than it's rough in the next 4 with the Eagles twice, the Broncos and 49'ers. By that time it's pretty easy to see them being 1-7 or 2-6 at best, and maybe 5 wins tops this year.
NFC South: Same as last year
Tampa Bay still seems to be the class of this Division. They did put up a fight against Philly, but ultimately fell short. They still seem to end up in a lot of close games and find a way to get on the right side more often than not. They have their share of injuries right now, but should be able to take this Division as they do have a pretty talented roster.
Atlanta seems like the same old story every year. There's talent, but can they harnass enough of it long enough to keep pace with Tampa. Bijan Robinson will likely be the best Running Back in the League this year. Drake London is a tantalizing player too. But can Michael Pennix Jr. be consistent enough week in and week out? They already laid an egg againt the Panthers and I think they have a couple more of those in them. 8 or 9 win team again.
Carolina is a team that some thought might improve. Thus far they look a lot like the same Panthers they've been for much of the Bryce Young era. Likely another fired coach at season's end, and maybe 5 wins.
New Orleans is who we thought they were. Bad team, but at times have played hard and found ways to be in games. Seems like they set themselves up to finally get a high pick in a draft that has some QB's and the plan is working. I think they're live to beat the Giants this week, but if they win 4 games I'll be pretty stuneed. 3 seems like the ceiling to me.
NFC North: Might be the best of the bunch
Detroit had a bad week one in Green Bay, but have rallied to beat up on the Bears, Ravens, and Browns since that. The defence was decimated with injuries last year but has shown signs of getting back to being a strong unit that can complement the offence. They still have a pretty stout offensive line that can beat teams up and allow them to move the ball effectively. I'm still not sure if they're the beast they were last year, but I think they'll be one of the NFC's final 4 teams.
Green Bay slipped up and gave up a 40 burger in Dallas after 3 straight solid outings to start the season. It's a talented team, but are they ready to get over the hump here and be an elite level conteder?
Minnesota has been a bit up and down and really is dangerously close to being 1-3. They're still a reasonably well coached team with a lot of talent, but they have question marks at QB that the other teams in this Division don't. I don't think they're piling up 12 wins this year with Wentz and McCarthy once he get's back. Not sure if they can coax th 10 they might need to secure a playoff spot.
Chicago had a pretty rough start, but have now won two straight even if the last one was a bit lucky. They still can't run the ball worth balls, their secondary is pretty battered and their defence as a whole is still a bit suspect. Still Williams and Odunze are progressing and Ben Johnson did rally them for a couple of wins after getting run down by Detroit. Which a lot of other teams don't recover from. So maybe he can get them to stay in the playoff mix.
AFC West: Competitive, but is it good?
Los Angles Rams are two blocked kicks away from having started 4-0 and being in the mix for best team in the Conference. Nakua has been unbelievable, and Adams has been a good complement here too so far. Still they did need some breaks to take out the Colts last week and we should find out this week if they are a cut above the rest when they play San Fran.
San Francisco looked like they might start 4-0 despite having played through numerous injuries but crapped the bed. They're also not that far from potentially being 0-4 too. Brock's had some turnover issues, and those injuries are also stacking up for them. CMC has not been real effective as a runner, but continues to produce in the pass game. They seem like they could either win 11 games..or fade and finish with like 7.
Seattle is another team who could be 4-0 if not for a week one brain fart. They also let the Cards back into a game that they had owned for 57 minutes last week. Their defence can be quite good, and as much as some friends of mine lamented losing Geno...they now realize Darnold is just a younger version of him who they can win with if he can get protection and not turn the ball over. Should be in the mix for 9 to 10 wins and stay in the playoff hunt.
Arizona is a bit of an odd one. Kyler Murray and his 8-20 career record is something. He's been good enough to be their guy and stay with the team for a few seasons. He's also near the bottom of the Division most years. The decision making at times can still be perplexing, and he seems reluctant to use his legs in games until it's too late. The defence has some pieces and has it's moments. Still I think they're the 4th best team in this Division, and likley end up with 7 wins.
In the AFC I have
Buffalo
Los Angeles Chargers as playoff locks.
Kansas City
Denver as playoff likely
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
New England as playoff contenders (a healthier Ravens would step up a class).
Las Vegas, Houston, Miami as the won't be drafting first but not making the playoffs.
New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati, and Cleveland as the bad teams, Cinci a step above where I don't see them being in the mix for the top pick.
In the NFC I have
Philadelphia
Detroit playoff locks
Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay
Green Bay playoff likely
Washington
Minnesota
Chicago
San Francisco
Seattle
Atlanta as playoff contenders
Arizona
Dallas as not being playoff bound but not in the mix for a top pick
Carolina
New York Giants
New Orleans are in the mix for the top pick in the draft.
I'm probably wrong on a lot of this. You have the receipt to mock me if I am.
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"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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