Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: moving on?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Fire

I want to wait for an updated formula of the vaccine before getting the next shot. That should be soon? Unless they require a recent booster for travel then I guess I have no choice.

Pretty sure I remember opendoor explaining how it wouldn't matter much, and would likely have almost the same effectiveness.

[djsFlames]

Might have come down with Covid. Was at Stampede just before the weekend.

I suspect a mini Calgary wave happening this week.

I tend to make a point of distancing myself too and didn't take the train.

Also been Covid free for the full 2+ years, albeit with a couple of false alarms.

[opendoor]

The updated vaccine will certainly be better than the original at stopping Omicron, but not a game changer or anything (last I saw it was about 2x more effective at generating antibodies). Though the updated vaccines that do exist are based on a variant (BA.1) that barely exists anymore, which does limit their utility a little bit. Though the extra breadth of immunity from a multivalent vaccine could plausibly improve protection against severe disease as well (you can't tell that from antibodies).

So whether it makes sense to wait for it depends a lot on someone's personal circumstance. If you're at high risk for any reason (age, comorbidities, etc.), it would virtually never make sense to wait beyond the recommended timeline. On the other hand, if you're younger and healthy or have had an infection relatively recently, the difference between 3-dose and 4-dose protection is probably going to be pretty minimal on an individual level.

Part of the problem is that whatever momentum existed to get these vaccines developed and produced in record time is basically gone now. What should have been relatively simple and inexpensive tasks (e.g. running trials to test vaccines for each new variant, comparing the breadth of immunity of people with different combos of vaccination and infection, etc.) that would have told us so much more about immunity to COVID basically haven't been happening. Similarly, there seems to be little investment or interest in speeding up 2nd generation vaccines that might provide better mucosal immunity (which would be more effective at preventing infection) or vaccines with fewer side effects than mRNA vaccines have.

[activeStick]

Hope you feel better soon. BA.5 is supposed to be more similar to Delta in the sense that it is making many people cough as a symptom, which was not the case for Omicron BA.1/2.

Someone else asked about the updated vaccine - I read today that it's expected in November.

[Fuzz]

The way I see it, if you qualify now, get it. If the new vaccine comes in November, healthy people may not even qualify/get it until Dec/January. Is Canada top of the list to receive these? Anyway, that's 5-6 months, which is the suggested interval anyway. Now is the perfect time to get it.

[opendoor]

Yeah, one needs to only look at the original timelines bandied about for updating vaccines (6-12 weeks) to see how you might basically be waiting for vaporware if you're waiting for an updated vaccine based on what's happened since. I recall people who were becoming eligible for 3rd doses in January talking about waiting until March for the updated vaccine. But now we're looking at almost a year from identifying BA.1 to a vaccine being rolled out, and it's already far from ideal given the drift that has happened since.

And the stats are pretty clear. Based on UK/Israeli data, a 3rd dose of the original vaccine drops the hospitalization risk for Omicron by about 6x vs. 2 doses. And a 4th dose drops it about 3-4x vs. a waning 3rd dose (though we don't have longer term data on that). So anyone with any real hospitalization risk (i.e. people over 40, anyone with comorbidities) should probably stick to the recommended schedule (6 months after prior dose or 3-6 months after latest infection).

At the same time, you do have to balance the risk reduction with potential side effects. mRNA vaccines unfortunately do carry small risks and seem to be less well tolerated than other types of vaccines. From what I understand, evidence is suggesting that people who had bad side effects with earlier doses are more likely to have them with later doses (and vice versa for people who didn't). So I wouldn't necessarily blame a younger person who had 3 doses and had bad side effects from shying away from a 4th dose at this point.

All that said, it's also important to remember when you see low effectiveness numbers for vaccines these days, the control group (unvaccinated people who've never been infected) basically doesn't exist anymore, and where they do are nearly impossible to identify. Vaccine efficacy is normally expressed as the risk reduction compared to an immunologically naive person. But when a bunch of people with prior infections are randomly thrown into the unvaccinated group, it will tend to depress effectiveness numbers even while protection remains the same. For instance, if we took protection from prior infection as being equivalent to vaccination, and 75% of the unvaccinated group had a prior infection, then all of the sudden something like 75-80% effectiveness for vaccines will show up as 20% effectiveness because 75% of the control group have significant protection. And the same applies to hospitalization data. The risk reduction looks much smaller than it really is because there is significant immunity among the unvaccinated group.

[GGG]

I think vaccine effectiveness vs the unvaccinated population is almost not worth discussing anymore. If you haven’t gotten vaccinated yet you likely aren’t.

So discussions as you said that are biased by being unable to distinguish between unvaccinated and uninfected to infected just leads to understating the effectiveness which in turn could suppress booster uptick.

The only question worth trying to answer is how much does an additional dose add additional protection relative to not getting an additional dose. This is because people making a decision today on whether to get a booster or not are already vaccinated so it doesn’t matter how effective the vaccine is vs an unvaccinated person.

Do I reduce my risk of mortality by getting a 4th dose or if I haven’t gotten a 3rd dose yet, a third.

[Azure]

Didn't Germany just come out and say that 1 in 5000 people can have a serious side effect after being vaccinated?

What were the numbers till now?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1549688073478455297

[opendoor]

I guess that depends on what they define as serious. 20 per 100K doesn't sound too far out of line with other data assuming we're not talking strictly about life-threatening reactions. mRNA and viral vector vaccines unfortunately have relatively high rate of adverse reactions, which is why it's so annoying that we've basically ignored potential improvements/alternatives. Novavax (a more traditional vaccine) should absolutely be getting used more widely so we can have data on if it is better tolerated, but barely anywhere is using it.

[Nyah]

Does anyone know where I'd be able to find rapid home Covid tests anywhere in Calgary? Or is this something that is need to order online?

[Amethyst]

Originally Posted by Nyah

Does anyone know where I'd be able to find rapid home Covid tests anywhere in Calgary? Or is this something that is need to order online?

I never have trouble getting them at FreshCo pharmacy in Saddleridge.

[Raekwon]

Originally Posted by Amethyst

I never have trouble getting them at FreshCo pharmacy in Saddleridge.

Yeah, I called my pharmacy last week in Airdrie, a smaller one and got 3 boxes. He didn't seem to be short, its probably a really good time now to get them as they will be flying off shelves again very soon.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think vaccine effectiveness vs the unvaccinated population is almost not worth discussing anymore. If you haven’t gotten vaccinated yet you likely aren’t.

So discussions as you said that are biased by being unable to distinguish between unvaccinated and uninfected to infected just leads to understating the effectiveness which in turn could suppress booster uptick.

The only question worth trying to answer is how much does an additional dose add additional protection relative to not getting an additional dose. This is because people making a decision today on whether to get a booster or not are already vaccinated so it doesn’t matter how effective the vaccine is vs an unvaccinated person.

Do I reduce my risk of mortality by getting a 4th dose or if I haven’t gotten a 3rd dose yet, a third.

A few things that I am questioning.

North America has for some reason completely ignored the effectiveness of natural immunity. Why?

As we get more data, it is becoming clear that mRNA vaccines are not nearly as safe as was originally stated, or for that matter not nearly as dangerous as some think. I think our health agencies need to be clear on this, and be as transparent as possible, because there have been so many claimed 'truths' about the mRNA vaccines that have have been completely wrong. You can find many examples of these from almost every major health agency.

What is the efficiency data on repeated boosters? Are there no concerns about the immune response it is supposed to illicit with each new shot?

What are the updated risk factors for different demographics once we assume that pretty much everyone has been infected? Is it lower than before? What is the risk factor of getting COVID now, after infection, compared to the risk of getting another booster. Who is the target demographic for the boosters? Is the original time frame of the booster still in place?

At this point everything is being ignored and I'd say there is a lot of mistrust in what the government is saying.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

North America has for some reason completely ignored the effectiveness of natural immunity. Why?

Given that:

1) Immunity from a pre-Omicron infection is basically useless against Omicron

2) Immunity from an Omicron infection doesn't seem to last particularly long in many people (some who were infected in Jan-Feb have been getting infected again in Apr-Jul)

3) There is no longer a simple and reliable way to verify if someone has been infected now that PCR tests aren't used as much.

What do you expect authorities to do differently? Never mind the fact that beyond crossing a border, there is basically nothing that requires a particular vaccination status any more.

[Sliver]

Got my booster (Moderna) yesterday. No line...just waltzed into Shopper's with my wife and walked out immunized 15 minutes later.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Given that:

1) Immunity from a pre-Omicron infection is basically useless against Omicron

Is it? And does it even matter at this point considered almost everyone who has been infected has been infected by Omicron or will be? So any natural immunity is from Omicron infection, or from the new variant.

2) Immunity from an Omicron infection doesn't seem to last particularly long in many people (some who were infected in Jan-Feb have been getting infected again in Apr-Jul)

What are you calling infection? Testing positive? Getting sick? Getting not as sick? The t-cell response from a previous Omicron infection is still robust enough to prevent serious illness, no?

3) There is no longer a simple and reliable way to verify if someone has been infected now that PCR tests aren't used as much.

What do you expect authorities to do differently? Never mind the fact that beyond crossing a border, there is basically nothing that requires a particular vaccination status any more.

Clear guidelines on what people can expect from the mRNA vaccine, including updated efficiency, risk expectations, etc. This should include booster efficiency. As in whether or not subsequent boosters are eliciting the same immune response. I've read that they are not. This is a real problem.

Why? Because perhaps like you said more focus should be put on Novavax and other options, including better treatment options. Plus the dreaded 'eat better, exercise, take your vitamins' talk. We are 2 years in. That is more than enough time for people to do more than just go get a booster shot whenever it is available.

Most people I talk too are either boosted and mad that they can't go get boosted again, or they are double-vaccinated and have ZERO interest in getting another shot. This lines up with some polling that was done recently. In both cases perhaps the approach isn't the correct one.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Busted! You're right, that's exactly what people are doing. I'm planning on voting for NDP over UCP just because I don't like the personalities in the UCP and I enjoy pretending NDP will have better policies because I like the people more.

Good grief, Cliff.

Are you suggesting all political parties approach healthcare spending/expected outcomes the exact same way? Is it possible some parties have better plans for addressing the healthcare crisis than others? Is it also possible some people prefer to cast their vote in the direction of parties that offer the best chance of improving the healthcare system over parties that prioritize other spending (e.g. billion dollar pipeline projects that are obviously doomed to fail)? Maybe some of us like parties with a backbone that will not adjust public health mandates to placate redneck rallies?

Good ****ing grief is right.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Azure

A few things that I am questioning.

North America has for some reason completely ignored the effectiveness of natural immunity. Why?

As we get more data, it is becoming clear that mRNA vaccines are not nearly as safe as was originally stated, or for that matter not nearly as dangerous as some think. I think our health agencies need to be clear on this, and be as transparent as possible, because there have been so many claimed 'truths' about the mRNA vaccines that have have been completely wrong. You can find many examples of these from almost every major health agency.

What is the efficiency data on repeated boosters? Are there no concerns about the immune response it is supposed to illicit with each new shot?

What are the updated risk factors for different demographics once we assume that pretty much everyone has been infected? Is it lower than before? What is the risk factor of getting COVID now, after infection, compared to the risk of getting another booster. Who is the target demographic for the boosters? Is the original time frame of the booster still in place?

At this point everything is being ignored and I'd say there is a lot of mistrust in what the government is saying.

Your first statement is false. NACI includes consideration for immunity through infection in its recommendations. It is saying you don’t need a booster for 3 months post infection or 6 months post vaccination. This is based on evidence which is linked in the NACI recommendations

Safety signals are again discussed in the NACI recommendations for vaccination. The reduced risk of death from Omicron after boosting is considered im the MACI recommendations.

It sounds like you are saying that since all of the studies and news about boosters and vaccination left the media you haven’t kept reading the information.

Start here read the linked data if interested or trust the experts who are far more up to date then we are

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...e-booster.html

Also if heart disease and diabetes aren’t reasons to eat well why would Covid move the needle. Health policy exists in the real world where changing peoples food behaviour is generally not possible.

[Azure]

Public messaging is important. Right now the public messaging is to just ignore everything. I think most here would agree with that.

Also, in great remembrance of the greatest public messaging work of the past 2 years.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1550465903413940229

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Azure

Public messaging is important. Right now the public messaging is to just ignore everything. I think most here would agree with that.

Also, in great remembrance of the greatest public messaging work of the past 2 years.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1550465903413940229

Advice still relevant for Monkey Pox.

I agree that a push for fall boosters is key for protecting hospitals this fall. I don’t think that data and evidence is going to sway minds. Instead clear messaging of 3 Months post Infection and 6 months post injection will reduce your risk of death is the information required to be disseminated generally.

The Covid vaccine is no longer special just get it with your flu shot.