Scott Wheeler's Top 100 drafted NHL prospects

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Many pro coaches say that "availability" is the most important trait a player can have.

As for the this list, it's obviously a point in time and a singular opinion. But kind of reinforces the view that Flames are going to need a few years of well above average drafting to turn this ship around. This team needs a top line and a top pairing and if you want to be a contender, these need to be in the top tier of the league.

So 2 or 3 more years of a high pick and then some good drafting with all your other picks could really change things.

Thanks to the volume of picks even if they are average drafting they should bet out more nhlers than average
If you have higher pick volume and draft well then I have one word for you : watch out

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Thanks to the volume of picks even if they are average drafting they should bet out more nhlers than average
If you have higher pick volume and draft well then I have one word for you : watch out

For sure. But they need more than NHLers, they need top level talent.

You look at all the first round picks since Tkachuk, which was a layup pick.
Valimaki, Pelletier, Zary, Coronato, Honzek. All mid to late first round picks. To build a contender, probably need to do better than that with the picks outside the top 10. I could maybe say the same of the four 2nd round picks. in that timeframe.

It's still way early to pass any final judgment. But last four years of picks only placed two players on this list.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

For sure. But they need more than NHLers, they need top level talent.

You look at all the first round picks since Tkachuk, which was a layup pick.
Valimaki, Pelletier, Zary, Coronato, Honzek. All mid to late first round picks. To build a contender, probably need to do better than that with the picks outside the top 10. I could maybe say the same of the four 2nd round picks. in that timeframe.

It's still way early to pass any final judgment. But last four years of picks only placed two players on this list.

There are 32 teams. 3 prospects on a top 100 list is average, whether or not they're your own draft picks.

At this time in two years, we should have one of the best prospect pipelines in the NHL.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Skill may be the wrong word, but durability is a characteristic that should be rewarded or punished when evaluating a player. It's no different than size or speed in that regard.

"If he can stay healthy this year..." isn't analysis; it's an admission that the player is more likely than others to be injured, which should be part of the projection.

It's only an issue when it becomes consistent.

If they get injuried again next year then it's a trend, but for now everyone gets one season of "injury forgiveness". Every player tends to have a season like this at some point in their career, it's how you rebound from it and ensure it doesn't become a nagging injury that's important

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Conroy may have to make a tough decision if Parekh has a dominant pre-season and training camp. I think the flames fully plan to send him to junior this year but what if he goes on a crazy run and forces their hand to give him a spot on the opening night roster? Highly unlikely but stranger things have happened.

It happened to Benson with the Sabres last year. They had no intention of having him make the team out of camp last year but he played so well they kept him up… which was impressive considering how many good forward prospects the team has. Part of that was due to injuries as well that created openings in the line up.

My hope is that he shows his skills in the pre-season and looks close to ready but is still sent to Junior for another year. Would hate to stifle his game this year with tough matchups and physical play that could lead to injury. I think I heard one of the things he needs to work on was avoiding big hits… sounds like he was getting rocked too frequently for a player of his skillset and size. Would rather him work on that in Junior than the NHL.

And then Benson tapered off very quickly and it was obvious after his percentages driven scoring run that he wasn't physically ready for the NHL. And the Sabres wasted a year of his ELC for no reason.

18 year olds shouldn't be playing in the NHL unless they are a Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby or Connor Bedard level freak of nature. In my opinion.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's only an issue when it becomes consistent.

If they get injuried again next year then it's a trend, but for now everyone gets one season of "injury forgiveness". Every player tends to have a season like this at some point in their career, it's how you rebound from it and ensure it doesn't become a nagging injury that's important

It can't become consistent until it's happened at all. Someone with one instance of injury is far closer to injury consistency than someone with zero instances.

As far as "injury forgiveness" goes, you have to deal with what you have as management. Certainly no one would be drafting a player where they do given the (near impossible) knowledge of an injury happening the following year. The player's value goes way down once the injury occurs, impeding the chance they will make a list like this.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

And then Benson tapered off very quickly and it was obvious after his percentages driven scoring run that he wasn't physically ready for the NHL. And the Sabres wasted a year of his ELC for no reason.

18 year olds shouldn't be playing in the NHL unless they are a Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby or Connor Bedard level freak of nature. In my opinion.

Plus, keeping a winger up is far different than a defenceman. For many reasons.

[D as in David]

Backlund is a good example of an oft-injured player early in his career. Apparently, he picked up the "skill" of staying healthy.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Backlund is a good example of an oft-injured player early in his career. Apparently, he picked up the "skill" of staying healthy.

I'm not arguing that it is a constant that someone is born with and can never be modified. There are examples of people like Backlund who have improved, and others who have deteriorated.

I think people - especially professional athletes - can improve on things like core stability with proper training programs, or allow them to deteriorate either by not adhering enough or ignoring them altogether.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Plus, keeping a winger up is far different than a defenceman. For many reasons.

Agreed. Would be much better if the flames give him another year to marinate in juniors.

Parekh is a confident kid with tons of skill. It would not shock me if he puts up numbers in preseason that makes the flames give him a cup of coffee in the NHL.

Where it could get tough is if he keeps it up in the first 9 games of the regular season in this scenario. I would still prefer in that scenario for him to get sent down but it’s tough to do that to a kid if he does better than every player competing for that spot and still gets sent down.

[Rejean31]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

The best thing about this rebuild is that we finally have more than 1 or 2 prospects at the World Juniors. Hopefully 5 or 6 instead of ZERO like last year! lol

Honzek was at the World Juniors last year.

[Enoch Root]

Injuries are random. Very few players are actually 'injury prone'.

[blender]

Originally Posted by Rejean31

Honzek was at the World Juniors last year.

Played well, too.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Injuries are random. Very few players are actually 'injury prone'.

Interesting claim. Any evidence?

How could anyone be "injury prone" if they're random?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Agreed. Would be much better if the flames give him another year to marinate in juniors.

Parekh is a confident kid with tons of skill. It would not shock me if he puts up numbers in preseason that makes the flames give him a cup of coffee in the NHL.

Where it could get tough is if he keeps it up in the first 9 games of the regular season in this scenario. I would still prefer in that scenario for him to get sent down but it’s tough to do that to a kid if he does better than every player competing for that spot and still gets sent down.

Parekh is a top 2 talent offensively in the recent draft and a 4th rounder defensively. That averaged out to 9th overall. The best case scenario is he goes back to junior and plays in all situations and improves defensively.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Interesting claim. Any evidence?

How could anyone be "injury prone" if they're random?

It is you that is using terms and phrases like 'injury consistency', 'durability is a skill', and 'more likely to be injured'. All of these require evidence for the claim. Stating that injuries are random does not require evidence - the opposite requires evidence.

You understand statistics and randomness, so I'm not sure why this is challenging for you.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It is you that is using terms and phrases like 'injury consistency', 'durability is a skill', and 'more likely to be injured'. All of these require evidence for the claim. Stating that injuries are random does not require evidence - the opposite requires evidence.

You understand statistics and randomness, so I'm not sure why this is challenging for you.

With respect to what I claimed, that's a fair criticism.

I was reading this earlier:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4196323/

Stating that injuries are random absolutely requires evidence. Rolling a die, flipping a coin, drawing cards from an infinitely shuffled deck are activities that demonstratively yield perfect randomness, and profitable games can be developed from this.

A species of tree is endemic to Kosrae in Micronesia; should we assume randomness? The Flames sold fewer tickets this year than last year; should we assume randomness? A player injured their ACL and now has another lower extremity problem; should we assume randomness?

You can assume anything you like with an open mind, but to simply declare it as fact without (seemingly) the desire to pursue evidence is somewhat childish in my opinion.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I am not very worried about random injuries on a player. These happens, and I would say it is more 'bad luck' than anything. Sure, a case can be made that a player is not fit enough - players that are more fit can probably withstand certain (not all!) types of contact/accidents that would result in injuries. Flexibility for sure can impact it as well.


When I get concerned about a player's injury history, it is when it is a recurring injury, especially to the head (concussions), or to knees, ankles, wrists and shoulders. In Honzek's case, I would make the claim that worrying about his injuries is essentially a waste of time, especially when some of his injuries were cut-related.


I make no secret that I am actually quite high on him. If he had recurring injuries, I would drop him down my list. I think he went to low in the rankings personally, but time will tell if he went too late, or even too early. I just think one poor season, and having non-recurring injuries isn't a huge deal. Consecutive bad seasons? I will start to worry.

[blender]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Parekh is a top 2 talent offensively in the recent draft and a 4th rounder defensively. That averaged out to 9th overall. The best case scenario is he goes back to junior and plays in all situations and improves defensively.

Where are you getting this from?
I was just reading Wheeler's write up and he certainly rates him higher than a fourth rounder defensively.

I don't disagree that a year in junior would be good for him, but I don't see the need to overstate perceived defensive deficiencies to make the point.

I remember hearing lots of talk about Adam Fox being an undersized defensive liabilty that wouldn't cut it in the big leagues, and the same group that identified him, drafted Parehk.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

With respect to what I claimed, that's a fair criticism.

I was reading this earlier:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4196323/

Stating that injuries are random absolutely requires evidence. Rolling a die, flipping a coin, drawing cards from an infinitely shuffled deck are activities that demonstratively yield perfect randomness, and profitable games can be developed from this.

A species of tree is endemic to Kosrae in Micronesia; should we assume randomness? The Flames sold fewer tickets this year than last year; should we assume randomness? A player injured their ACL and now has another lower extremity problem; should we assume randomness?

You can assume anything you like with an open mind, but to simply declare it as fact without (seemingly) the desire to pursue evidence is somewhat childish in my opinion.

Again, it was you that was making claims. Calling injuries random is simply stating a baseline - they're random, unless someone can demonstrate something other than simple randomness.

There is absolutely nothing childish there, and your need to personalize simple posts, serves no positive purpose