Flames record down the stretch

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Do they start Backstrom or Hiller vs the Yotes tomorrow? I know some would hate it but the games against the other bottom feeders are perfect games to start our backups.

[Toonage]

Sounds like Ortio. My guess is we see Backstrom start against Toronto in a week.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Yeah Fan960 just said Ortio tomorrow.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Flames have been playing better of late but weren't being rewarded.

Now they're on a lengthy home-stand.

I expect they are going to go on a bit of a tear. And I expect a lot of fans are going to lose their minds over it.

However, I think it's important to remember that there is more to the Flames' future than a single draft pick...

• Ortio's growth is a good thing.
• Bennett playing centre really well is a good thing.
• Backlund playing better is a good thing.
• The emergence of Nakladal and Wotherspoon are good things.
• The surprisingly solid and consistent play of Jokipakka is a good thing.
• The emergence of Hathaway is a good thing.

It takes a lot of players to make a good team and the development of these guys helps the organization.

These are good points - and developments like this around the existing core guys plus a #1 goaltender and some free agent parts gets us a contender for multiple years.

I'm hoping for 15 - 0 the rest of the way.

Seriously - only losers look forward to the draft lottery.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Corral

Seriously - only losers look forward to the draft lottery.

F that crap. No need to be such an uppity blow hard.

I don't control how this team plays, and I'm always happy when they win.

But when they are in the midst of a rebuild and having a down year, there isn't anything wrong with me, a fan, looking forward to the draft in the hopes that we end up drafting a top end prospect who will hopefully help the team I've cheered 35~ years for become a contender and win a Stanley Cup. It just so happens that the higher they draft, the better the odds are that it happens.

It sure as hell doesn't make me a loser, and anybody who thinks it does can go fornicate with themselves as far I'm concerned.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

F that crap. No need to be such an uppity blow hard.

I don't control how this team plays, and I'm always happy when they win.

But when they are in the midst of a rebuild and having a down year, there isn't anything wrong with me, a fan, looking forward to the draft in the hopes that we end up drafting a top end prospect who will hopefully help the team I've cheered 35~ years for become a contender and win a Stanley Cup. It just so happens that the higher they draft, the better the odds are that it happens.

It sure as hell doesn't make me a loser, and anybody who thinks it does can go fornicate with themselves as far I'm concerned.

OK fine - my comment was over the top to emphasize a point. Being OK with losing games and looking forward to the draft is fine as a fan I suppose, but hoping they lose because you are looking forward to the draft - as some are suggesting here - is quite another matter IMO. Every roster player on the Flames is at that level because they play to win - always - and I'm sure every one of them would rather go 15-0 to end this down year and just miss the playoffs - then have the team get another high draft pick.

[GranteedEV]

The FLames are 28-34-5 with 15 games left.

If the law of averages applies to those final 15 games, they would go around 6-8-1 to close out the year. That leaves a final record of 34-42-6 and they finish the year with 74 points. That would be a worse season than 2013-14 when they had 77 points.

In order to finish with 78 points, they'd like to go 7-5-3 for a final record of 35-39-8 so that at the very least, this season isn't the worst of the rebuild, because it should not be.

If they get really hot, and somehow go 9-3-3 in those final games, they finish the year 37-37-8 with 82 points for a .500 point %. It's not the most lofty goal in the world for a bad team, but at the very least it'd be an indicator that a few more bounces and they can be in the thick of things next year.

If they continue playing at the points percentage they've played the last three games, they could finish the year 11-0-3. That would leave them at 86 points. Now we're into "bubble team" finish territory.

All that said - they need to go at least 14-1-0 in those final fifteen games to finish the year with a .500 win percentage.

A perfect 15-0-0 finish is the only way they can finish over .500

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Imporantant reverse standings games for Friday, March 12

CGY vs ARI
CBJ vs PIT

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Looking ahead to tomorrow we've got a few reverse standings games with the heavy Saturday schedule. There's a few 11am games even if you fancy some morning hockey.

BUF vs CAR 11am
Ryan O'Reilly has just resumed skating, that should help BUF down the stretch hopefully.

OTT vs TOR 5pm
TOR may have a chance here. OTT is the worst defensive team in the league

WPG vs COL
Show some pride WPG!

EDM vs ARI 8pm
Well one of them has to win lol. Either result helps us, an OT game would be ideal.

VAN vs NSH 8pm
I'm not holding out much hope for this one even though NSH looked far from dominating vs the Flames.

[1qqaaz]

I love this thread. Thanks for keeping it updated!

Out of those 4 games tomorrow, I think the Edm vs Ari game has the largest impact on us. Like you said, one of them has to get points. I kind of hope the Oilers lose all their games in overtime. That way, they're still losing, yet getting points.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Here are the chances of us finishing in the various spots at the moment.

30th: 8%
29th: 15%
28th: 17%
27th: 17%
26th: 15%
25th: 11%
24th: 8%
23rd: 5%

64% chance of finishing 2nd last through 5th last.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Sounds like Ortio. My guess is we see Backstrom start against Toronto in a week.

Wouldn't shock me if the only time Backstrom plays is the game in Minnesota. I'm sure the teams they are battling for a playoff spot will be bitter about it but they'll get over it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Incredibly good night on Saturday for the reverse standings as BUF, WPG, VAN, and ARI all won. We're starting to see a bit more separation at the bottom than previously. TOR has pretty much locked up last place as far as I'm concerned. EDM is a favourite to finish 2nd last now. CGY and WPG look to be duking it out for 3/4th last most likely. BUF is just ahead of us at the moment but they seem to be on the upswing to me. Everyone else has pulled away a bit and its going to be hard to catch them without going on a big win streak.

Updated odds for the Flames final position from http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

30th: 6%
29th: 14%
28th: 21%
27th: 21%
26th: 15%
25th: 10%
24th: 6%

Average position: 26.9

76% chance of finishing bottom 5
61% chance of finishing bottom 4
41% chance of finishing bottom 3

Only significant game tomorrow is TB-CBJ at 1pm.

[browna]

Going undefeated gives the Flames a 66% chance of making the playoffs and 100% chance of being an awesome last 4 weeks as a fan to watch that spectacle.

Oilers going undefeated the rest of the way (lol) gives them a 0.2% chance.

[kn]

Since this thread was created:

             
            GP  W  L  OTL  PTS
Arizona     4   3  0   1    7
Calgary     5   3  1   1    7
Toronto     5   3  2   0    6
Edmonton    6   3  3   0    6
Buffalo     5   2  2   1    5
Vancouver   5   2  3   0    4
Winnepeg    6   2  4   0    4
Columbus    4   1  3   0    2

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Yeah the home stand combined with good goaltending from Ortio has us competitive despite our weak depth upfront and some injuries. We'll see if they can keep it up since the majority of the remaining schedule is away where they've been terrible. They may also be more likely to start Backstrom/Hiller away from home against fellow bottom feeders. But yeah no longer does a top five pick look assured.

In the end the only day we need to get lucky is lottery day.

[kn]

             
            GP  W  L  OTL  PTS
Calgary     6   4  1   1    9
Toronto     6   4  2   0    8
Arizona     6   3  2   1    7
Edmonton    7   3  4   0    6
Buffalo     7   2  4   1    5
Winnepeg    7   2  4   1    5
Vancouver   6   2  4   0    4
Columbus    5   2  3   0    4

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Haven't updated this thread in a while as our mini run had me a little scared to look at the reverse standings lol. Huge games tonight though as the majority of the bottom feeders play each other or nonplayoff teams

BUF @ CAR 5 pm
We really need a BUF win here. Ryan o'Reilly recently returned to the lineup, Eichel is back from food poisoning and the Sabres offense is as deep as it's been all year.

PHI @ CBJ 5 pm
We really need a CBJ win here. PHI just lost Neuwirth due to injury. Bobrovsky recently returned from injury and has had a few games to shake off the rust. Wennberg is back after missing last game.

ANA @ MTL 5:30 pm
MTL is dropping like a rock. It would be ideal if they pick up some points here and there but hoping for them to beat ANA seems like a tall order.

VAN @ WPG 6 pm
You mean one of them has to win? Kind of a toss up as which team you'd rather win. Any overtime result is best case scenario by far.

EDM @ ARI 8 pm
I'd prefer a ARI win but its a win for us regardless of the result. Overtime would be ideal.

9 games left. If the Flames go

5 3 1: 10% chance at 9th last, 36% chance at 8th last, 37% chance at 7th last, 14% chance at 6th last

4 4 1: 28% chance at 7th last, 39% chance at 6th last, 21% chance at 5th last

3 5 1: 18% chance at 6th last, 37% chance at 5th last, 31% chance at 4th last, 10% chance at 3rd last

The odds will probably change significantly after tonight's results.

[kn]

             
            GP  W  L  OTL  PTS
Toronto     7   5  2   0   10
Calgary     7   4  2   1    9
Arizona     7   4  2   1    9
Buffalo     8   3  4   1    7
Columbus    6   3  3   0    6
Edmonton    8   3  5   0    6
Winnipeg    8   3  4   1    6
Vancouver   7   2  5   0    4

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Haven't updated this thread in a while as our mini run had me a little scared to look at the reverse standings lol. Huge games tonight though as the majority of the bottom feeders play each other or nonplayoff teams

BUF @ CAR 5 pm
We really need a BUF win here. Ryan o'Reilly recently returned to the lineup, Eichel is back from food poisoning and the Sabres offense is as deep as it's been all year.

PHI @ CBJ 5 pm
We really need a CBJ win here. PHI just lost Neuwirth due to injury. Bobrovsky recently returned from injury and has had a few games to shake off the rust. Wennberg is back after missing last game.

ANA @ MTL 5:30 pm
MTL is dropping like a rock. It would be ideal if they pick up some points here and there but hoping for them to beat ANA seems like a tall order.

VAN @ WPG 6 pm
You mean one of them has to win? Kind of a toss up as which team you'd rather win. Any overtime result is best case scenario by far.

EDM @ ARI 8 pm
I'd prefer a ARI win but its a win for us regardless of the result. Overtime would be ideal.

9 games left. If the Flames go

5 3 1: 10% chance at 9th last, 36% chance at 8th last, 37% chance at 7th last, 14% chance at 6th last

4 4 1: 28% chance at 7th last, 39% chance at 6th last, 21% chance at 5th last

3 5 1: 18% chance at 6th last, 37% chance at 5th last, 31% chance at 4th last, 10% chance at 3rd last

The odds will probably change significantly after tonight's results.

Thanks for that. It has been a long time since I have bothered to look at the out of town scoreboard. Your post had me curious enough to go check on the outcomes of these games, as well as the Stars game.

Looks like it was almost a perfect night for those of us hoping for the best possible draft assets. It would be amazing if the flames could come out of this with the top pick and the conditional first from Russel.