NHL.com will start tracking "advanced" stats

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's too bad, and IMO also shows how important the goaltending has become to this team. Superior goaltending (Ramo/Hiller at the start, Ortio when he was called up) can bring results contrary to the possession stats, whereas when the goaltending becomes mediocre (I didn't think they were bad outside a couple games - just not great), the results reflect the stats. I bet if the Flames look back, Kipper kept them above water despite bad possession stats.

So the goal is to improve possession such that average goaltending doesn't matter - then you get consistent wins and when you add in good goaltending, you rise above that.

Actually this year is kind of an anomaly. They allow the eighth fewest shots despite having so many air attempts against. It's more about how well the flames clog the shooting lanes than goaltending. Goaltending this year has actually been poor (strictly stat wise) as save % is lower/middle of the pack.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'll worry about next year's team next year. You'll have guys like Poirier, Ortio and potentially Bennett plus many other changes. They may still be awful in advanced stats, but this year's performance has no bearing on next years.

Last year's Avs team finished first over Chicago and St.Louis. Yes - they lost in the playoffs but that's just being in the West. Acting like last year's poor advanced stats are why they suck this year doesn't make sense. They aren't same team.

Last year Av's team had a 919 save percentage. This year they have a 918 save percentage. So its not the goaltending. Its the fact that guys like Duchene, MacKinnon and O'Reilly have all taking a big step back in production this year.

And do you know what predicted this regression? Advanced Stats. All the advanced stats were saying was that Colorado's performance (and Calgary's for that matter) is likely not sustainable. In Colorado's case it wasn't.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GGG

And do you know what predicted this regression? Advanced Stats. All the advanced stats were saying was that Colorado's performance (and Calgary's for that matter) is likely not sustainable. In Colorado's case it wasn't.

Exactly.

For the Flames, next year is going to be an interesting season. We can't count on being a .700 team in the division or on piling up last minute come-from-behind wins. Take away those anomalies (mitigated by the fact that we aren't terribly likely to be so awful against the East either), and we will be left with a situation similar to Colorado this year. Either we control the puck more and improve our chances of maintaining (or improving) our standing. Or we don't, and we risk falling off the same cliff Colorado did.

[polak]

Advanced stats being tracked by the NHL is all well and good. Nothing against having more information as a fan.

What I despise is blindly following them like they're gospel. Context is important. Outliers and trend-breakers exist in pretty much all statistical analysis. Outright dismissing them is pretty much the anti-thesis of why people track statistics like this. Instead we should be looking at why they are able to maintain their position despite what the evidence is saying and readjust our analysis accordingly.

As for some possible explanation as to why we might have such high shooting % but such low possession numbers, I look at all the young inexperienced talent we have and point to that as the reason. We have a lot of good young players with raw skill. Johnny Gaudreau shoots the puck just as accurately in the NHL as he does in the NCAA or in his backyard. It's a natural skill that is unaffected by his environment. Maintaining possession on the other hand, does increase in difficulty as you move into the better leagues and that will take some adjustment and learning. So we might cough up the puck more cause we have a lot of young players who are new to the league but they have a lot of talent so when they get their chances, they capitalize.

It's not that hard to explain. I'd like to see advance stats paired with experience levels. That would be interesting to look at.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Actually this year is kind of an anomaly. They allow the eighth fewest shots despite having so many air attempts against. It's more about how well the flames clog the shooting lanes than goaltending. Goaltending this year has actually been poor (strictly stat wise) as save % is lower/middle of the pack.

I am too lazy to look, but I would bet that in games they win, the save% is average to good, whereas in the ones they lose it's not.

I do agree, they play a big shot blocking game. Russell has made a new career of it.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I am too lazy to look, but I would bet that in games they win, the save% is average to good, whereas in the ones they lose it's not.

I do agree, they play a big shot blocking game. Russell has made a new career of it.

I think that holds true for every team, but I don't think it's the answer here. Overall, the reason the flames are bucking the possession game is their scoring on an extremely high percentage of their chances. I think that's because of Hudler and Johnny personally

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I think that holds true for every team, but I don't think it's the answer here. Overall, the reason the flames are bucking the possession game is their scoring on an extremely high percentage of their chances. I think that's because of Hudler and Johnny personally

Gio, as well, scores at a very high percentage.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GGG

And do you know what predicted this regression? Advanced Stats. All the advanced stats were saying was that Colorado's performance (and Calgary's for that matter) is likely not sustainable. In Colorado's case it wasn't.

Its a different team and complete cherry picking.

The Islanders, Montreal and Nashville all had bad advanced stats last year. Yet they've all managed to be good this year.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Its a different team and complete cherry picking.

The Islanders, Montreal and Nashville all had bad advanced stats last year. Yet they've all managed to be good this year.

This year, compared to last year....

NYI: +5.9% Fenwick, +3.8% Corsi
NSH: +3.4% Fenwick, +4.0% Corsi
MTL: +0.7% Fenwick, +1.7% Corsi

COL: -2.7% Fenwick, -3.2% Corsi

Montreal is still a below average possession team (statistically seem like a better version of the current Flames), but the Islanders and Predators are both now top 10, compared to bottom 10 last year. Could this have anything to do with the rise in the standings for New York and Nashville? Certainly can't hurt.

As for Colorado, they have gone from bad to worse possession-wise, and have seen a modest drop in both shooting and save percentage. Not surprising they have tumbled (especially when looking at the lack of production from their young stars).

[mrkajz44]

My biggest issue with Fenwick and Corsi is they are truley subjective.

Lots of times there is debate on what counts as a shot - does a dump in that happens to hit the net a shot? How about one that clearly is missing the net but the goalie still blockers it away?

Further complicating it shot attempts - if its hard to agree on a shot, its near impossible for an agreement on a shot attempt. Examples include:

1) Fanned shots - the player was trying to shoot afterall
2) The dreaded "slap pass" beside the net
3) Puck through the crease (shot or pass?)

So for me, the numbers are not that telling as I bet if we had 10 people on the board watch tonight's game and come up with Fenwick and Corsi, we'd have a pretty wide distribution of answers.

Case in point, remember the LA game where the shots were drastically favouring the Kings "officially"? Most will agree that the shot count was messed up there - I'm sure the issue is in every building.

[northcrunk]

The worst part about these advanced stats is it give Steinberg, Kerr and Pinder more reason to talk about this garbage. I've started to turn off the Fan960 everytime they bring one if these dorks on or say fenwick or corsi on air.

[northcrunk]

Rob Razer Ray but it best "Advanced stats are for dork who have never played a sport in their life"

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

Rob Razer Ray but it best "Advanced stats are for dork who have never played a sport in their life"

Because Ray was such a skilled and successful hockey player, on highly successful teams (never relied on otherworldly goaltending at all).

[Jason14h]

Any team who ignores advanced stats will quickly see their team in the bottom of the standings.

10 years ago people said the exact same thing about baseball. Now every team that doesn't want a competitive disadvantage uses the infield shift. Those that do not are the Cubs (And the main reason the cubs went and got Madden, the pioneer of advanced stats)

The stats will continue to grow and advance, but anyone who actually watches the Flames and thinks that all the come from behind wins with the goalie pulled equate to sustainable W/L is mistaken and proves advanced stats wrong are out to lunch.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Any team who ignores advanced stats will quickly see their team in the bottom of the standings.

10 years ago people said the exact same thing about baseball. Now every team that doesn't want a competitive disadvantage uses the infield shift. Those that do not are the Cubs (And the main reason the cubs went and got Madden, the pioneer of advanced stats)

The stats will continue to grow and advance, but anyone who actually watches the Flames and thinks that all the come from behind wins with the goalie pulled equate to sustainable W/L is mistaken and proves advanced stats wrong are out to lunch.

How exactly do you improve your advanced stats? Become a better team. There's nothing in there that shows you how to improve your team.

(baseball advanced stats were actually advanced and had/have a big impact in improving your team, but its more about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them rather than shifts that help teams win)

[northcrunk]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Because Ray was such a skilled and successful hockey player, on highly successful teams (never relied on otherworldly goaltending at all).

Nobody ever claimed he was a great hockey player. I'm only agreeing with him on his point.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

How exactly do you improve your advanced stats? Become a better team. There's nothing in there that shows you how to improve your team.

(baseball advanced stats were actually advanced and had/have a big impact in improving your team, but its more about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them rather than shifts that help teams win)

One way to improve your possession numbers is to get rid of players that can't/don't drive possession. I don't think the rise of analytics and the disappearance of enforcers happening at pretty much the exact same time is a coincidence.

[Jason14h]

How exactly do you improve your advanced stats? Become a better team. There's nothing in there that shows you how to improve your team.

You don't think advanced stats that show a players quality shots, lucky goals, goals caused by being out of position, useful vs useless 2nd assists, etc is going to help team evaluate the best players for their team?

Just because we are not 100% of the way there today does not mean they should be dismissed.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

Nobody ever claimed he was a great hockey player. I'm only agreeing with him on his point.

You could have chosen a better authority. Or if there isn't one, maybe there's a reason and you shouldn't be all happy that you agree with Ray's opinion.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

How exactly do you improve your advanced stats? Become a better team. There's nothing in there that shows you how to improve your team.

(baseball advanced stats were actually advanced and had/have a big impact in improving your team, but its more about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them rather than shifts that help teams win)

It helps with player selection.