Calgary Civic Election: Mayoralty Poll #4 - The Heat is On

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

It means that the poll's margin of error at 95% confidence could mean that Higgins is actually tied with or behind McIver.

oh, ok, I wondered about that. Just seemed like it was worded strangely.

Edit: where did you even find that? I still can't find it in the PDF, the article, or anything.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

It means that the poll's margin of error at 95% confidence could mean that Higgins is actually tied with or behind McIver.

Here's my major worry about all of the polls in this municipal election: there appears to be no real likely voter screen. The poll before this had 80% responding that they were definitely going to vote; considering that the final turnout number will probably be more like 30%, that's a major shortcoming in any survey.

I'm not saying this merely as a Nenshi booster--I'm just suggesting that we may well still be in the dark here. Is there a difference between people who will definitely/have already voted and people who are unlikely to vote? Conventional wisdom dictates that the unlikely voter is the likeliest to be swayed by name recognition.

Anecdotally, I don't know a single person who is going to vote for Higgins, but I know a few who are definitely voting McIver, and plenty who are voting Nenshi. I have also (no joke) seen more lawn signs for Bob freaking Hawkesworth than I have for Barb Higgins. The leaders in that area are McIver and Nenshi, and it isn't close.

I have no way of being sure, but my suspicion is that Higgins' support is way overstated here. I think McIver is still in the lead.

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Anecdotally, I don't know a single person who is going to vote for Higgins, but I know a few who are definitely voting McIver, and plenty who are voting Nenshi. I have also (no joke) seen more lawn signs for Bob freaking Hawkesworth than I have for Barb Higgins. The leaders in that area are McIver and Nenshi, and it isn't close.

There's something to be said for taking into account the circles you travel in and the people you associate with. For instance, I have no idea who these Barb Higgins supporters are or where they are coming from. Same with Hawkesworth (I've seen lots of signs too). Nevertheless, they are there, just not necessarily in the circles I travel in and the people I normally associate with. It's very often not an accurate cross-section of society.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

There's something to be said for taking into account the circles you travel in and the people you associate with. For instance, I have no idea who these Barb Higgins supporters are or where they are coming from. Same with Hawkesworth (I've seen lots of signs too). Nevertheless, they are there, just not necessarily in the circles I travel in and the people I normally associate with. It's very often not an accurate cross-section of society.

Oh, I agree. And in that sense, I know far more Nenshi supporters than McIver supporters, but I don't imagine that this somehow means that Nenshi is ahead.

But I do think the absence of a likely voter screen can seriously skew poll results. I just don't know in what direction, and I don't think any of us really do.

[Mathgod]

The jump in support for Higgins is a result of her touchy-feely ads that have hit Calgary TVs in the last few days. It's frustrating to know that some campaigns can afford to purchase TV time, while others can not.

Still, I am skeptical when it comes to these kinds of polls. How many people were polled? Was it truly a random sampling of Calgarians?

[3 Justin 3]

Calgary is going to turn into a mess if Higgins is mayor. Damn you Barb Higgins!

[Ramsayfarian]

Front runners duke it out over transparency

New mayoral front-runner Barb Higgins released a transparency platform Monday, calling for a new audit committee and lobbyist registry as well as and having council members and senior staff declare all their real estate and business holdings.

But her two chief rivals — Ric McIver and Naheed Nenshi — shot back, saying she is merely copying policies they’ve already released.

Higgins wants to see an audit committee made up of five citizens with financial expertise and two council members — which will be chaired by a citizen — along with establishing an independent ethics counsel and ombudsman’s office.

“The whole goal is to address Calgarians’ concern over the accountability and transparency and it seems there’s an eroding trust with what’s going on at city hall,” she said.

“Calgarians deserve to know where their money is going, how it’s being spent, how it’s being handled.”

But McIver and Nenshi countered that she is merely mirroring their own policies, released weeks ago.

“She’s lifted that almost entire policy straight off my website so I guess I have to say I like it because she’s essentially agreed with me on almost everything,” said McIver.

“I rolled out my cost control accountability and transparency program back on June 22 which includes essentially everything she said, a lot later than what I have put out.”

Nenshi went so far as to call some of the platform naive.

“Good for her for doing this but the suggestions she’s making, the ones not exactly the same as what I’ve suggested are actually a little bit naive,” said Nenshi.

“For example, the establishment of a lobbyist registry is expensive and challenging.

“Much easier is what I’ve proposed, I’m just going to print a list of everyone I’ve met with every month.”

Higgins said too much business is handled behind closed doors at in-camera meetings, which she will limit.

“The land committee, for the most part, all of those meetings are being held behind closed doors and those are big deals being made,” she said.

“An example we saw in the last couple of days, a deal being done, there’s a lot of questions around the price that land was sold for and how an affordable housing project was done.”

McIver, who chairs the land committee, took exception, saying everything is done above board.

“She, by her own claims, was a co-producer, senior writer and deeply involved in all city hall issues and she didn’t see anything wrong with this until it showed up on the front page of a newspaper,” he said.

“I saw something wrong with this a long time ago so I’m glad she’s trying to catch up but she’s way behind.”

http://www.calgarysun.com/news/calga.../15656196.html

[Bunk]

One interesting number from the Ipsos poll is that among those "absolutely certain" (58% of those polled), the numbers are tighter:
36% Higgins
32% McIver
25% Nenshi

[Phaneuf3]

One interesting thing about these polls is how many will actually get out to vote. From what I`ve seen, the Nenshi supporters are very passionate about their candidate - more so than the other camps.

Civic elections have a terrible voter turnout rate. If of the 25% polled that say they like Nenshi, 40+% of them go to the polls vs 20-30% of those that picked Higgins it could be a very interesting race.

[Ashartus]

Edmonton's current mayor was polling 15 - 17% leading up to the election and won with 41% of the vote (http://communities.canada.com/calgar...-a-mandel.aspx), so it's not hopeless for Nenshi by any means.

[SebC]

If Higgins truly believed in transparency she would have released her donors list long before she did and she wouldn't have any problem participating in a three-way, televised debate. Her entire campaign has been based on obfuscation.

==================================================

Originally Posted by frinkprof

There's something to be said for taking into account the circles you travel in and the people you associate with. For instance, I have no idea who these Barb Higgins supporters are or where they are coming from. Same with Hawkesworth (I've seen lots of signs too). Nevertheless, they are there, just not necessarily in the circles I travel in and the people I normally associate with. It's very often not an accurate cross-section of society.

"The poll also noted that Higgins has a substantial lead among Calgarians with a high school education or less as well as lower income households.Geographically, Ric McIver has a substantial lead among Calgarians living in the southeast quadrant, while Higgins has stronger support among those living in the northeast and southwest."

http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/Higgi...251/story.html

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

Edmonton's current mayor was polling 15 - 17% leading up to the election and won with 41% of the vote (http://communities.canada.com/calgar...-a-mandel.aspx), so it's not hopeless for Nenshi by any means.

The problem there is that undecideds tend to walk in and vote for the name they recognize.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by SebC

"The poll also noted that Higgins has a substantial lead among Calgarians with a high school education or less as well as lower income households.

http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/Higgi...251/story.html

I think that answers why no one knows anyone who's voting for Higgins. I generally don't know many people who are only high school educated or less.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Jesus. I'm going to vote Higgins and hope she wins just to watch the high brows go insane.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Jesus. I'm going to vote Higgins and hope she wins just to watch the high brows go insane.

It's a sad world we live in, that's for sure.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Jesus. I'm going to vote Higgins and hope she wins just to watch the high brows go insane.

If you know the word 'Bourgeois', it probably doesn't apply to you. This makes you calling other people 'high brows' funny.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by SebC

If you know the word 'Bourgeois', it probably doesn't apply to you. This makes you calling other people 'high brows' funny.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by getbak

Curses, obscure ex-NHLers who left the Flames before I was born!

[Bunk]

Markusoff had an interesting post about how Mandel won Edmonton in 2004 and the polls leading up to election day:

http://communities.canada.com/calgar...-a-mandel.aspx

So the polls came out thusly:
Sept 23: Noce 24, Smith 22, Mandel 8, undy 44.5
Oct 9: Smith 29, Noce 30, Mandel 20, undy ??
Oct 15 (mandel camp poll): Noce 24, Smith 19, Mandel 17, undy 29
Oct 15 (smith poll): Smith 24, Noce 19, Mandel 15, undy 37
Results, Oct 18: Mandel 41, Smith 33, Noce 25

[Bigtime]

I can't help but feel that the 18th will be like game 6 versus Tampa for us Nenshi supporters, it's going to come right down to overtimes. Hoping this time the underdog wins it!