Neal's goals seem to have depended on his role and linemates. With top guys he's a guy who gets in the 30s. But even in a secondary role he can get you mid 20s. That's a positive to the Flames and a credit to him.
Has he played much RW? That would factor in for me.
pretty sure Neal has played a lot as a RW.
if people looked at the roster before the carolina trade and after, its definitely better on paper...
while one can argue about whether Hanifin will be as good as Hamilton offensively, i believe it will be pretty close and i also think Hanifin will actually be better defensively than Dougie was.
up front we've added Neal and Lindholm and Ryan, while only losing Ferland... that's potentially a big leap forward...
the lack of a NMC swings that Neal deal into the plus side of the ledger for me.... and he's a surly SOB in the mode of Tkachuk, which is awesome
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if people looked at the roster before the carolina trade and after, its definitely better on paper...
while one can argue about whether Hanifin will be as good as Hamilton offensively, i believe it will be pretty close and i also think Hanifin will actually be better defensively than Dougie was.
up front we've added Neal and Lindholm and Ryan, while only losing Ferland... that's potentially a big leap forward...
the lack of a NMC swings that Neal deal into the plus side of the ledger for me.... and he's a surly SOB in the mode of Tkachuk, which is awesome
Turns out Neal plays RW a lot and likes it. I hadn't seen that article and I've never really watched him much. I only remembered him busting in on the left side in Vegas (even there I don't know where he usually was though).
I voted wait and see. But lets face it, for this money on a UFA, you are hoping for Patrick Marleau's 25'ish goals and 50'ish points. If he provides more than that it's a bonus. Given Neals age and past production, 20 to 25 should happen in the next 3 years.
I subscribe to my own theory where you will never create a team who's players production matches their salary slots. So a player like Neal likley isn't going to produce like a 5.75 player based on most fans expectations.
He should be able to add something that was lacking in the Flames lineup, and really what were they going to do with that money in the next few years anyways....save it....burn it? I don't see a scenario where the Neal contract is the reason that the Flames send Gaudreau, or Hanifian, or Tkachuck out of town because they can't fit them in under the cap.
Theres no award for best use of salary cap dollars. Having Troy Brouwer's contract had nothing to do with the Flames not signing a guy like Tavares, and I don't think it prevented them from getting anyone better than Neal.
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I think Peters is a huge face off guy so having left and right shot centers on lines should see a lot of ins and outs in the dot.
If you have Backlund with Lindholm and Ryan with Jankowski they just take the draws on their dominant sides.
Plus lots of teams muck with defensive coverage now too ... winger takes the down low and the center takes his high boards position. More fluid now so you don't really need to label players, especially when you have up to 8 centers in your 12
They could potentially have two Cs on every line, and a left and right C on 3 of the 4. I cannot remember the last time the Flames were over 50% on the dot - I think it is almost a certainty that they will be this year (possibly well over).
Some of the subtle ways that the team has improved this summer:
1) face offs
2) power play (personnel)
3) potentially PK as well (we'll see who gets utilized for that)
4) more depth (obviously)
5) more flexibility to cover injuries
All the little things that add up to big things over a long season
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For an analytics guy you'd think you would actually look at the stats.
I did, and they said exactly what I said they did. I did not speak to what might have happened had he played a full season in each of those years. Are you trying to establish that the guy is injury prone? Good job.
If you want to look at rate stats, you could look at his total TOI, which was 1134 minutes in 2012, 515 in 2013 (lockout), 802 in 2014, 950 in 2015, 1248 in 2016, 978 in 2017 and 992 in 2018. I'd expect him to see, what, 1100 minutes this season if he's on the first line?
You could also look at p/60, which has gone 2.31, 1.48, 1.13, 1.89 over the past 4 seasons. If we optimistically say he's a 2p/60 player, and he plays 1100 ES minutes, that's 36 ES points, which would be really good since he's probably good for ~20 power play points on the first unit (he's had between 15 and 21 for the past 4 years). That'd get him into the mid 50's, though that assumes a lot of things go right and that the coaching staff uses him in that capacity. I guess we'll have to wait and see how he's deployed.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
They could potentially have two Cs on every line, and a left and right C on 3 of the 4. I cannot remember the last time the Flames were over 50% on the dot - I think it is almost a certainty that they will be this year (possibly well over).
Yeah, Backlund will be the worst faceoff guy this season. Monahan's been getting better, Lindholm and Ryan are good, I thought for a rookie Jankowski was quite good.
Yeah, Backlund will be the worst faceoff guy this season. Monahan's been getting better, Lindholm and Ryan are good, I thought for a rookie Jankowski was quite good.
Ryan is fantastic in the faceoff circle and Lindholm was also excellent (~9th and 26th in the NHL, respectively, IIRC). In addition to these two taking faceoffs for us, practicing faceoffs against them can only make the other centre's better in the dot. Hopefully the tips and tricks will be shared openly with these two signed long-term (Lindholm pending). The improvement in faceoff proficiency is one of the things I am most looking forward to observing this season. Our possession game is likely going to get better, and it was already good under GG. Now we will hopefully have more finishers to take advantage of said possession.
I like the fact that Neal has played in the Stanley Cup Finals two years in a row. He brings a lot of playoff experience and has played on teams that contribute by committee. There's also an element of dressing room leadership that comes with that too, so he'll be bringing that as well.
There's lots of intangibles that Neal brings that I'm looking forward to.
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I did, and they said exactly what I said they did. I did not speak to what might have happened had he played a full season in each of those years. Are you trying to establish that the guy is injury prone? Good job.
If you want to look at rate stats, you could look at his total TOI, which was 1134 minutes in 2012, 515 in 2013 (lockout), 802 in 2014, 950 in 2015, 1248 in 2016, 978 in 2017 and 992 in 2018. I'd expect him to see, what, 1100 minutes this season if he's on the first line?
You could also look at p/60, which has gone 2.31, 1.48, 1.13, 1.89 over the past 4 seasons. If we optimistically say he's a 2p/60 player, and he plays 1100 ES minutes, that's 36 ES points, which would be really good since he's probably good for ~20 power play points on the first unit (he's had between 15 and 21 for the past 4 years). That'd get him into the mid 50's, though that assumes a lot of things go right and that the coaching staff uses him in that capacity. I guess we'll have to wait and see how he's deployed.
Obviously the only thing we're going to do between now and October 3rd is wait and see. He could miss time with an injury. Peters could go crazy and put him on the 4th line. He could get zero time on the Brouwerplay. He could have zero chemistry with Gaudreau & Monahan. Lindholm could force himself into that top line RW spot. He could get a career ending injury on opening night. Or he could play top line minutes through a full 82 games.
You're not taking a wait and see approach when you're suggesting there's a chance he won't exceed 25 goals without noting the reason he didn't reach it in 2015 & 2017 was because he missed games. He still hit 23 in both of those years. Had he not missed those 27 games he easily would have been a +25 goal scorer every single year of his career. Could he have had more ice time in those seasons? Let me know what the stats say.
In 2011 he had 22 in 79 games but only 1 of those was in 20 after being traded to Pittsburgh. What happened after the trade?
Then to come back with p/60 and toi stats to waver and waffle. What's the point? We have proof that he's consistent in the stat that counts on the scoresheet. Goals.
There's probably stats that would back up that with an elite passer in Gaudreau, and potentially a full season of 1st line minutes his point production should go up, but I'm not an analytics guy. I just watch games.
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They could potentially have two Cs on every line, and a left and right C on 3 of the 4. I cannot remember the last time the Flames were over 50% on the dot - I think it is almost a certainty that they will be this year (possibly well over).
Some of the subtle ways that the team has improved this summer:
1) face offs 2) power play (personnel)
3) potentially PK as well (we'll see who gets utilized for that)
4) more depth (obviously)
5) more flexibility to cover injuries
All the little things that add up to big things over a long season
Wife keeps asking what’s up with you? She says I’ve been grinning ear to ear for days.
I told her I gotz me a new man crush and it’s a real deal . Man the more I think about what this upcoming season could be the more I wanted hockey to have started yesterday already.
I wonder who will benefit the most from Neal being here?
Wife keeps asking what’s up with you? She says I’ve been grinning ear to ear for days.
I told her I gotz me a new man crush and it’s a real deal . Man the more I think about what this upcoming season could be the more I wanted hockey to have started yesterday already.
I wonder who will benefit the most from Neal being here?
I think Lindholm is the perfect player to take over as Backlund's partner (as Frolik is going to start to show the inevitable effects of age).
And with Lindholm being an upgrade on Frolik, you can probably round out that line with someone like Dube or Mangiapane. This would allow Tkachuk to upgrade the other scoring line.
Treliving basically said it in his interview with Ryan Leslie (In Treliving speak of course)
Paraphrasing...."On July 1st term and dollars are always an issue. But we were prepared to go there to get the player."
Translation= That is probably too much money and too many years for a 31 year old James Neal. But he fills a glaring need and instantly makes us better. Financially we will be fine in the near and long term.
I don't care about these deep advanced analysis. Save that for the Dougie trade. James Neal instantly makes the Flames a much better hockey team.
Wife keeps asking what’s up with you? She says I’ve been grinning ear to ear for days.
I told her I gotz me a new man crush and it’s a real deal . Man the more I think about what this upcoming season could be the more I wanted hockey to have started yesterday already.
I wonder who will benefit the most from Neal being here?
