Been having fun diving deeper into prospects and the draft.
Studied the last ten drafts pretty in depth.
I noticed we're seeing even less impact players coming out of rounds 2-7 in recent years.
And not so much even the bottom half of the first round. Some good secondary players. But stars are scarce there. The largest concentration is in the top 10, and moreoso top 4-5. Some drafts have had better players come out of slots 3-5 than 1-2. So its worth keeping in mind if we do miss in the lottery.
Basically its never been more important to be drafting at the very top to get game breaking talent. The fall off is massive every 5 picks from 1st OA.
Its really ideal that they are at rock bottom with a cushion. The lost season could be franchise altering, and right in time for the new rink. Seems like the stars are aligning, for once.
Interesting! And I’m curious, what are you using as your cutoff/definition for an impact player in this analysis?
No one trades a great centre one for one with a great defenceman. I can't think of any examples at all.
So if we cannot trade for a center, and our greatest need is for centers.
Do we just need to draft centers and not the best player?
If the Flames end up drafting third.
McKenna and Stenberg have been drafted one and two.
Up next is Verhoeff as the most reported third best player.
Do the Flames bypass him and draft Lawrence?
If you cannot trade for a center and you need to draft them, and you already have a good stock of defense prospects, do you bypass a highly rated defense prospect and make sure that you are adding another center to your prospect pool?
__________________ 'Skank' Marden: I play hockey and I fornicate, 'cause those are the two most fun things to do in cold weather. - Mystery Alaska
I dont think you ever shy away from BPA unless there's 2 guys who are 50/50 dead even.
Say we pick 3 like your scenario projects.
If its Verheoff vs Lawrence and Calgary has both as A+ even prospects
Then I'm calling whoever drafts 4th - offering the 3rd pick for an additional pick if they're higher on a certain guy.
Almost never happens though it seems.
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So if we cannot trade for a center, and our greatest need is for centers.
Do we just need to draft centers and not the best player?
If the Flames end up drafting third.
McKenna and Stenberg have been drafted one and two.
Up next is Verhoeff as the most reported third best player.
Do the Flames bypass him and draft Lawrence?
If you cannot trade for a center and you need to draft them, and you already have a good stock of defense prospects, do you bypass a highly rated defense prospect and make sure that you are adding another center to your prospect pool?
When I think of forcing a top pick based on position I keep thinking about the Habs taking Kotkaniemi 3rd when Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes were still on the board and the Habs fans in the stands looking utterly shocked at the decision.
I am sure this has been asked and answered many times, but how much can we potentially drop if we do finish last or better? Just one spot? I cannot remember how it works.
I am sure this has been asked and answered many times, but how much can we potentially drop if we do finish last or better? Just one spot? I cannot remember how it works.
I ask because you know that will happen.
If you finish last 3rd is the lowest you would draft. 1st and 2nd pick are for the lottery and all non-playoff teams can win it but teams can only move up a max of 10 spots. The Flames were a single number away from moving from 16 to 6 last year and the Mammoth went from 14 to 4. If we finish last technically 2 teams can still win the lottery and the Flames pick 1
If you finish last 3rd is the lowest you would draft. 1st and 2nd pick are for the lottery and all non-playoff teams can win it but teams can only move up a max of 10 spots. The Flames were a single number away from moving from 16 to 6 last year and the Mammoth went from 14 to 4. If we finish last technically 2 teams can still win the lottery and the Flames pick 1
Is it correct to say that the team that finishes last has ~20% chance to pick 1st, a ~40% chance to pick in the top 2 and a 100% chance to pick top 3?
Keep in mind if the Flames win the lottery to retain their spot, that means they'll have picks 1, 22, 33. Essentially 3 first round picks, before whatever trades they do or don't make for more.
Keep in mind if the Flames win the lottery to retain their spot, that means they'll have picks 1, 22, 33. Essentially 3 first round picks, before whatever trades they do or don't make for more.
33 is such a great pick. I am always jealous of that team that enters the 2nd day of the draft and gets their pick of the litter from all the 'fallers' that somehow didn't get picked in the 1st round. Every draft I am on pins an needles hoping that the Flames end up drafting that one of those 3-4 guys who I think had the upside to be a 1st round pick, and almost every draft I get annoyed as they are all gone before the Flames pick.
Day 2 of the draft will be that much more exciting this time around!
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Oilers technically would have to finish in the bottom 11 in order to keep their pick. They keep their pick if it's a top 12 pick. But if Ottawa is below them in the standings, their pick doesn't exist. However, if the Oilers were to win the lottery, it would automatically move them into the top 12.
Vegas is only in a wildcard spot. Their pick might be higher than some think - it might be worth paying attention to the 18 to 24 range or so.
It's also worth looking a the 28 to 36 range, since the Flames' 2nd round pick might fall in there.
Basically, look at the whole draft. Especially if the Flames acquire more picks.
