Federal Election Polling Thread

[Patek23]

Correct me if I'm wrong but are these polling not done by phoning people's land lines and asking them who they would vote for today? That was my understanding and if it is that way than you would think the conservative numbers in polls would actually be inflated rather than this shy torie affect. Most people still with land lines would fit their demographic of voter while lots of younger people who only have cell phones would not be getting polled.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

Correct me if I'm wrong but are these polling not done by phoning people's land lines and asking them who they would vote for today? That was my understanding and if it is that way than you would think the conservative numbers in polls would actually be inflated rather than this shy torie affect. Most people still with land lines would fit their demographic of voter while lots of younger people who only have cell phones would not be getting polled.

No, all the pollsters have moved away from calling landlines exclusively. Now they use either a combination of landline+cell or internet.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Is it not?

According to the riding analysis from 308 you posted, the Liberals are ahead outright in Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview, and they're in second place behind the Conservatives everywhere else in the city. There isn't a single Calgary riding where the NDP is performing better than the Liberals per 308.

That's exactly what I was saying. A couple people have commented they were strategically voting NDP because they want to take down the conservatives. I was commenting that NDP doesn't make sense in Calgary for those reason.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

New daily from Nanos

Lib - 34.8
Con - 28.6
NDP - 24.9
Green - 5.4
Bloc - 5.5

Either this poll is an outlier that slightly gives more votes to the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives, or the Tories are starting to fade.

Hopefully it is the latter.

Same poll new day

Lib - 35.1 (+ 0.3)
Con - 29.0 (+ 0.4)
NDP - 25.0 (+ 0.1)
Green - 5.1 (- 0.3)
Bloc - 5.2 (-0.3)

That 6 point lead seems to be holding steady with 8 days remaining. We'll see if the new Trudeau ad will have any effect.

[Matty81]

Nanos and the torstar forum poll have been a bit skewed liberal all campaign... Same with the post mainstreet one for the cons. Relative to other polls anyway.

One thing you have to say is that they all showed the ndp drop initially and now appear to be showing a liberal surge.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I don't know if Nanos has been skewed one way or the other--it was showing strong results for the CPC early on, and as recently as a week ago. Forum has had some big swings, but they also showed the CPC with a substantial lead over the liberals not that long ago, and have the two parties basically flipped now.

I think there is just a lot of noise in this data. Aggregating the numbers should smooth some of that out, but it won't eliminate it entirely. I kind of think you can look at this data and think "tied race" or "slight liberal lead," but if anyone is absolutely convinced one way or the other, it's because they want to be. (Personally, my guess is
"tied race" but it's really just a hunch)

[Blaster86]

A point made is that during the long weekened that perhaps the Cons are being underpolled and it will come back on Tuesday.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

A point made is that during the long weekened that perhaps the Cons are being underpolled and it will come back on Tuesday.

Maybe, but why would conservatives be less likely to answer their cell phone on a long weekend?

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Maybe, but why would conservatives be less likely to answer their cell phone on a long weekend?

Must be busy on their yachts and out of cell reception

[Regulator75]

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

Must be busy on their yachts and out of cell reception

A bit more extravagant than what was said, but it was pointed out that they were more likely to go away. There was no science behind it, just a suggestion.

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

A bit more extravagant than what was said, but it was pointed out that they were more likely to go away. There was no science behind it, just a suggestion.

Hence the winking face to show my sarcasm

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Same poll new day

Lib - 35.1 (+ 0.3)
Con - 29.0 (+ 0.4)
NDP - 25.0 (+ 0.1)
Green - 5.1 (- 0.3)
Bloc - 5.2 (-0.3)

That 6 point lead seems to be holding steady with 8 days remaining. We'll see if the new Trudeau ad will have any effect.

Same Poll New Day

Lib - 35.7 (+ 0.6)
Con - 28.9 (- 0.1)
NDP - 24.3 (- 0.7)
Bloc - 5.7 (+ 0.5)
Green - 4.8 (- 0.3)

Up to a 7 point lead now with a week remaining. The Liberals have all the momentum at this point.

Also, last election, the day prior to the election they had it

Con - 38.7 - Actual 39.6
NDP - 30.5 - Actual 30.6
Lib - 20.9 - Actual 18.9
Bloc - 5.0 - Actual 6.1
Green - 4.0 - Actual 3.9

in 2008

Con - 37.1 - Actual 37.6
Lib - 26.7 - Actual 26.2
NDP - 20.3 - Actual 18.2
Bloc - 8.7 - Actual 10.0
Green - 7.1 - Actual 7.9

in 2006 the last 3 day bloc (didn't segregate the individual days)

Con - 36.4 - Actual 36.3
Lib - 30.1 - Actual 30.2
NDP - 17.4 - Actual 17.5
Bloc - 10.6 - Actual 10.5
Green - 5.6 - Actual 4.5

[Caged Great]

It seems from the last 3 elections that any gains by the conservatives in the election came from the Liberals or vice versa and the NDP's gains and losses came at the expense of the bloc.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

In addition to the Nanos poll above, two new polls today:

Forum:
Lib: 37
CPC: 31
NDP: 23

EKOS:
CPC: 35
LIB: 33
NDP: 19

Pick your poison, I guess? Liberals are starting to pull away in the aggregate though.

[Regular_John]

At this point I think the Liberals have it, their most recent TV spots are hitting all the right notes in today's climate. The whole niqab debate seems to have polarized Canadians against the conservatives, while the liberals are riding that wave of support.

During the provincial election I thought the Prentice/Smith press conference was the fatal misstep for the provincial PC's, attempting to use the niqab as a wedge issue may just be the Harper Government's fatal misstep. Both left a bad taste in the voter's mouths and drove them to the other candidates.

But I'm no fancy pants political analyst, I just build websites.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by jaydorn

At this point I think the Liberals have it, their most recent TV spots are hitting all the right notes in today's climate. The whole niqab debate seems to have polarized Canadians against the conservatives, while the liberals are riding that wave of support.

During the provincial election I thought the Prentice/Smith press conference was the fatal misstep for the provincial PC's, attempting to use the niqab as a wedge issue may just be the Harper Government's fatal misstep. Both left a bad taste in the voter's mouths and drove them to the other candidates.

But I'm no fancy pants political analyst, I just build websites.

If the Liberals win (I agree it's looking more likely, but I don't fully share your confidence), I think history will recognize two big mistakes the Harper campaign made:

1. "He's just not ready" backfired. Harper's multi-year attack ads set expectations for Trudeau so low that people thought he would show up to the debates drooling all over his shirt. While he didn't blow anyone away with masterful performances, he won the debates simply by appearing somewhat competent and vastly exceeding the (very low) expectations the Conservatives had created for him in the minds of voters.

2. The niqab issue also backfired, but not for the reason one might think. I don't necessarily think it polarized people against the Conservatives and cost them any real support. Outside of Quebec, people who think the niqab is an important election issue were already voting for the Conservatives anyway, and people who think it's a trivial distraction from more important issues were already in the ABC camp. The effect it did have, though, was to cut into the NDP's wide lead in Quebec (and by extension also reduce their national polling numbers). This solidified the Liberals as the very clear choice for most strategic voters in the country, thus reducing the amount of vote-splitting that will occur between the Liberals and the NDP -- vote splitting the Conservatives absolutely require to win many ridings.

[c.t.ner]

Unless there is something catastrophic that occurs over the next 4 days, my gut feeling is that the Liberals are going to hit the 36% mark with the Conservatives at around 30%. To be honest, at this point I think most people have made up their minds and there really isn't much that will change them. The only wild card is the "Need For Change" soft NDP voters and whether or not they'll shift to the liberals for Strategic voting reasons.

The big question is whether the votes pan out into a majority, minority or does the seat distribution mean they end up in second place. I think they need at least 39% before we can talk about a majority for the Liberals.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

The big question is whether the votes pan out into a majority, minority or does the seat distribution mean they end up in second place. I think they need at least 39% before we can talk about a majority for the Liberals.

The Liberals have a path to a majority, but it will require a lot of things going their way. They should win all but maybe 5-6 seats in Atlantic Canada. They also have up to a 10 point lead in Ontario right now (depending on which poll you read). If enough NDP supporters vote strategically, they could potentially turn that province into a Liberal landslide. They could then win a majority using the same path to victory as Chretien did in the 90s: win big in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and win just enough support in Quebec, the prairies, and BC to put them over the top. As of today, it seems pretty unlikely they'll be able to pull this off, but momentum is definitely on their side, so who knows what will happen in a week.

The Conservatives also have a path to a majority, but it's probably even less likely than the Liberals getting one. They're going to get nearly wiped off the map in Atlantic Canada (loss of ~10 seats vs. today), so they need to make those up elsewhere. This is where the niqab strategy might come into play: they could potentially win some net new seats in Quebec because of this. They'd then have to rely on vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP to hold onto everything they currently have (and even win a few more seats) in Ontario-West. Probably not going to happen, but we'll see.

The NDP is effectively out of the race at this point. Their best strategy now is to hold onto the seats they currently have and hope for a Liberal minority government from which they can extract NDP-favourable concessions in exchange for their support. If the NDP war room had any brains and long-term thinking, their strategy would be to leave the Liberals alone and spend the rest of their campaign budget running anti-Harper ads in close swing ridings. Judging from the NDP flyer Clay linked in the other thread, though, it looks like they might be trying to take the Liberals down with them, potentially leading to more seats won by the Conservatives thanks to vote splitting. That's the nightmare scenario for all progressive Canadians who want to see Harper defeated.

If I was a betting man, I'd put the election odds (as of today anyway) like this: 10% chance for Liberal majority, 5% chance for Conservative majority, 50% chance for Liberal minority, 35% chance for Conservative minority.

[Bunk]

Advance poll turnout is apparently up 36% over 2011, which is not usually good news for an incumbent.

That said, the Conservatives have proven they have a very effective get out the vote machine that can probably make up a couple of points compared to their rivals. In seat count I think it'll be pretty close - probably the liberals squeaking out a minority.