Since 1963, Calgary has never had a top 3 NHL Draft Pick

[powderjunkie]

I'd like to see flatter odds and drawing for more (if not all spots, perhaps with a bit of drop protection for the very worst teams).

Ideally it would be a multi-factorial system that also includes both past draft luck and recent playoff success.

But to stick with a relatively simple system, I'd build it around a few simple ideas: the 3rd worst team is no more/less deserving of winning the top pick than the worst team. Secondly, a 1 pt difference between teams shouldn't warrant any difference in odds.

16% - split evenly among all 16 non-playoff teams (1% each)

42% - split evenly among the bottom 6* teams (additional 7*% each)

42% - split evenly among the bottom 3** (additional 14*% each)

*If 7th last is within 1 pt of 6th last, then they are included. If 8th is within 1pt of 7th, they are included, too (and so on).

**similar to above (If 4th last is within 1 pt of 3rd last, then they are included. If 5th is within 1pt of 4th, they are included, too (and so on).

In the simplest case, bottom 3 teams would each have 22% odds, and the next 3 would have 8% (other 10 teams = 1%).

But say 7th and 8th worst were within a point of 6th, and 4th last was within a point of 3rd last, it would be:
bottom 4 = 16.75%
23rd-28th = 6.25%
17th-22nd = 1%

Obviously you could fiddle with the specific terms, but I think this is in the right ballpark.

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

My fix for the draft would be to weight it against consecutive playoff misses. Every team gets a lottery ball for every year they miss the playoffs. When they make it again, they're ineligible for that year's draw and a single ball is removed. An additional ball is removed for every round they win, and the Stanley Cup champs automatically get reset to 0

I think this is a fantastic idea, and an ideal way to disincentivize all-out tanking, but the longest suffering fanbases have a better chance of hope.

[Gemnoble]

Surprised we never ended up in the top 3 during the young guns era. Dire times.

Says something about us maybe being a decent organization though.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Gemnoble

Surprised we never ended up in the top 3 during the young guns era. Dire times.

Says something about us maybe being a decent organization though.

I found in a lot of years in the Young Gun era, the Flames would be on the cusp of making the playoffs at the trade deadline and just kind of slip out of it. They were never truly bad, like Oilers bad, like out of it on November 1 bad.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

not exactly a ringing endorsement for tanking, is it?

There's still a lot of superstar talent in that non-Stanley Cup list, most were just unfortunate to be drafted into franchises with terrible management. The cup winners list is a pretty healthy endorsement for how well tanking does work when management is smart enough to know how to use it properly

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

There's still a lot of superstar talent in that non-Stanley Cup list, most were just unfortunate to be drafted into franchises with terrible management. The cup winners list is a pretty healthy endorsement for how well tanking does work when management is smart enough to know how to use it properly

I think it says that good management builds champions, not tanking

[CalgaryFan1988]

Updated since 2010 to show how bad Edmonton is.

Edmonton Oilers 4 (2010, 2011, 2012, 2015)
Buffalo Sabres 2 (2018, 2021)
New Jersey Devils 2 (2017, 2019)
Florida Panthers 1 (2014)
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (2016)
Colorado Avalanche 1 (2013)
New York Rangers 1 (2020)

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

not exactly a ringing endorsement for tanking, is it?

No, but it doesn't really disprove it either. I'd say teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Tampa Bay hit the right window to draft superstar players that helped propel them to cup wins. Obviously you still need to build the team properly, and your 1st overall guys have to actually hit their potential, but if it works, it sets the team up for a long compete window.

[dirk diggler]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Atlantas first-ever pick, Jacques Richard (taken 2nd over-all) was considered by some scouts to have been Lafleur's better. Sadly, alcohol and a reckless lifestyle killed that promise.

The next season, Tom Lysiak was also taken second-over-all. He had a solid, if less than stratospheric, pro career. First over-all that season? Denis Potvin.

saw a bio on him awhile back, was able to show what a talented player he was later in his career with Quebec i believe. What a waste, very similiar to a guy like Bryan Fogerty.

[Vinny01]

But I was told by many vocal posters that this team will never be successful unless they adopted the tank for high picks method. We simply do not have the elite talent on this team which is allegedly impossible to acquire without picking top 3 in the draft.

This flames team was built with good drafting, trades and free agent signings.

Getting Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Andersson, Kylington, Dube outside the first round

Trading for Lindholm, Hanifin, Toffoli, Zadorov

Signing Markstrom, Tanev, Coleman, Gudbransen

Hitting on the 6th pick with Tkachuk

Hiring a HOF coach in Sutter

These are all the reasons this years team is a legit contender and done without drafting in the top 3.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

But I was told by many vocal posters that this team will never be successful unless they adopted the tank for high picks method. We simply do not have the elite talent on this team which is allegedly impossible to acquire without picking top 3 in the draft.

This flames team was built with good drafting, trades and free agent signings.

Getting Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Andersson, Kylington, Dube outside the first round

Trading for Lindholm, Hanifin, Toffoli, Zadorov

Signing Markstrom, Tanev, Coleman, Gudbransen

Hitting on the 6th pick with Tkachuk

Hiring a HOF coach in Sutter

These are all the reasons this years team is a legit contender and done without drafting in the top 3.

If you re-read some of the threads from the summer, it's pretty hilarious how wrong some, normally quite knowledgeable and rationale, posters were about the need for a rebuild.

IMO the Flames will never get a top pick, even with a tank. The team's philosophy has always been about hard work. Even when the team falls flat, due to total lack of skill, the hard work will push them above the very bottom of the league.

In the new NHL tanking is also far from a sure-thing. The majority of the teams that have tanked for top prospects are still awful. Meanwhile, what makes a successful team is definitely changing. Teams like the Lightning and St. Louis have been built around solid drafting and asset management. In 19/20 the Lightning won with Hedman as their only highly drafted player (yes Stamkos played 1 shift). The Blues only had Pietrangelo.

[CaptainYooh]

I think the first three picks should be given to each team at least once in 32 years regardless of their season ranking. Lottery order for 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick is easy to establish. First draft lottery order will be prepared by favouring the teams that have never drafted 1st overall and then moving the winner to the end with each draft. Same for the 2nd, Same for the 3rd. Edmonton will be ranked last in each one of these, which is perfectly fair and reasonable.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I'd like to see flatter odds and drawing for more (if not all spots, perhaps with a bit of drop protection for the very worst teams).

Ideally it would be a multi-factorial system that also includes both past draft luck and recent playoff success.

But to stick with a relatively simple system, I'd build it around a few simple ideas: the 3rd worst team is no more/less deserving of winning the top pick than the worst team. Secondly, a 1 pt difference between teams shouldn't warrant any difference in odds.

16% - split evenly among all 16 non-playoff teams (1% each)

42% - split evenly among the bottom 6* teams (additional 7*% each)

42% - split evenly among the bottom 3** (additional 14*% each)

*If 7th last is within 1 pt of 6th last, then they are included. If 8th is within 1pt of 7th, they are included, too (and so on).

**similar to above (If 4th last is within 1 pt of 3rd last, then they are included. If 5th is within 1pt of 4th, they are included, too (and so on).

In the simplest case, bottom 3 teams would each have 22% odds, and the next 3 would have 8% (other 10 teams = 1%).

But say 7th and 8th worst were within a point of 6th, and 4th last was within a point of 3rd last, it would be:
bottom 4 = 16.75%
23rd-28th = 6.25%
17th-22nd = 1%

Obviously you could fiddle with the specific terms, but I think this is in the right ballpark.




I think this is a fantastic idea, and an ideal way to disincentivize all-out tanking, but the longest suffering fanbases have a better chance of hope.

Totally agree with this.

The way I look at it, the drop off in talent between a team that finishes last usually isn't that different than a team that finishes anywhere in the bottom 10. The difference in the standings is often just a few wins and lucky bounces or circumstances that make the difference. But the difference in talent from a 1st overall, top 3, or top 10 pick is usually pretty great. Yeah, there are always exceptions of course.

I would be in favour of calculating draft lottery odds at the end of every season based on how the standings actually look with every team getting a statistical chance of winning.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

But I was told by many vocal posters that this team will never be successful unless they adopted the tank for high picks method. We simply do not have the elite talent on this team which is allegedly impossible to acquire without picking top 3 in the draft.

This flames team was built with good drafting, trades and free agent signings.

Getting Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Andersson, Kylington, Dube outside the first round

Trading for Lindholm, Hanifin, Toffoli, Zadorov

Signing Markstrom, Tanev, Coleman, Gudbransen

Hitting on the 6th pick with Tkachuk

Hiring a HOF coach in Sutter

These are all the reasons this years team is a legit contender and done without drafting in the top 3.

The funniest part about the need to tank for high picks argument was that this team's core actually has/had a lot of high picks on the roster over the last 4 years.

Lindholm: 5th
Monahan: 6th
Bennett: 4th
Hanifin: 5th
Tkachuk: 6th

No top 3 picks, but you can tank and not get a top 3 pick anyways. This team always had lots of talent from the top end of the draft, even if they weren't drafted by us. And they have added to it with shrewd picks later in the draft as well.

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The funniest part about the need to tank for high picks argument was that this team's core actually has/had a lot of high picks on the roster over the last 4 years.

Lindholm: 5th
Monahan: 6th
Bennett: 4th
Hanifin: 5th
Tkachuk: 6th

No top 3 picks, but you can tank and not get a top 3 pick anyways. This team always had lots of talent from the top end of the draft, even if they weren't drafted by us. And they have added to it with shrewd picks later in the draft as well.

Goodbranson was a top pick as well right? And zadarov?

[FanIn80]

I thought Lindy was a 4th?

Edit: Nope, 5th. (now I just need to work on Googling before I post)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Goodbranson was a top pick as well right? And zadarov?

Gudbranson was 3OA in 2010. Z was 16th in 2013. Lewis was 17th way back in 2006.

[FanIn80]

Goodbranson is having a career season in goals, assists, points and +/- at the age of 30. He's on a 1-year deal at $1.95M. I would be down with re-signing him, but would he get a slight raise? Say 3*$2.25M?

It's kinda wild that he's the highest-drafted player on our roster.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I think the first three picks should be given to each team at least once in 32 years regardless of their season ranking.

With 32 teams and each getting each of the top 3 picks, you've eliminated the worse teams getting the top 3 picks, as they will be distributed evenly.

Was that you intention?

[liamenator]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Hiring a HOF coach in Sutter

IMO, this has been the single most important factor. I pray ownership has finally learned that sitting on their wallets and settling for bargain basement coaching talent year after year leads only to stunning mediocrity.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The funniest part about the need to tank for high picks argument was that this team's core actually has/had a lot of high picks on the roster over the last 4 years.

Lindholm: 5th
Monahan: 6th
Bennett: 4th
Hanifin: 5th
Tkachuk: 6th

No top 3 picks, but you can tank and not get a top 3 pick anyways. This team always had lots of talent from the top end of the draft, even if they weren't drafted by us. And they have added to it with shrewd picks later in the draft as well.

I really felt the Carolina trade in a sense was a bit of a reset after the team stumbled when going all in on Hamonic. It gave the Flames 2 more top 5 picks during their rebuilding seasons and 5 top 6 picks between 13-16. That truly was the career defining and franchise altering trade by Treliving and the biggest contributor to this team being poised to win the division in back to back 82 game seasons (screw the weird Covid years)