Solovyov has some decent pro reps in the KHL, he is still good and young too at 21. Not a flashy player by any means, it should be interesting to see him in the AHL.
Haven't really been following after the top 5 were picked, but saw you guys on 17 already, so thought I'd pop in to see where Gawdin was ranked... and I can't believe he hasn't even been picked yet.
How do you guys rank players whose ceiling might be 2nd line, but floor is down the street pumping gas over a guy who ceiling is 3rd line, but floor is 4th line? I get that a second line ceiling is flashier than a 3rd line ceiling, but feel free to ask any prospect on the planet if they'd rather be playing on the 4th line in the NHL or down the street pumping gas.
Scenario: You're a college student looking at two offers from the best company on the planet to work for in your chosen field...
After a 3 month probationary period, the first offer is a 20% chance at an 80k salary, but an 80% chance you won't even get a permanent postion.
After the same 3 month probationary period, the second offer is a lower position with a 20% chance at a 70k salary, but an 80% chance at a an even lower poisition at a 60k salary.
Considering you're fresh out of college, it seems to me like the second offer is infinitely better than the first.
Location: Wondering when # became hashtag and not a number sign.
Exp:
Quote:
Originally Posted by FanIn80
Haven't really been following after the top 5 were picked, but saw you guys on 17 already, so thought I'd pop in to see where Gawdin was ranked... and I can't believe he hasn't even been picked yet.
How do you guys rank players whose ceiling might be 2nd line, but floor is down the street pumping gas over a guy who ceiling is 3rd line, but floor is 4th line? I get that a second line ceiling is flashier than a 3rd line ceiling, but feel free to ask any prospect on the planet if they'd rather be playing on the 4th line in the NHL or down the street pumping gas.
Scenario: You're a college student looking at two offers from the best company on the planet to work for in your chosen field...
After a 3 month probationary period, the first offer is a 20% chance at an 80k salary, but an 80% chance you won't even get a permanent postion.
After the same 3 month probationary period, the second offer is a lower position with a 20% chance at a 70k salary, but an 80% chance at a an even lower poisition at a 60k salary.
Considering you're fresh out of college, it seems to me like the second offer is infinitely better than the first.
Gawdins floor is not 4th line...its very much career AHL player and even then might be Euro league lifer.
His skating has to improve drastically or his hockey IQ needs to really pop.
Same as the last two rounds and likely a few more rounds to come in Cole Huckins.
Glenn Gawdin is a good debate between voting between likelihood of playing, outright potential, or a hybrid of both. And a debate that evolves as the rounds progress. With Gawdin, you have a player who will play more games than most players left on the list at this point, but his ceiling is pretty secure as a 4th-liner and he probably doesn't make it to 100 NHL games barring a very late bloomer breakout. Very tough season for him last year in the AHL relative to expectations so hard to put a finger on where he's at. I liked that the Flames took a shot on him but he is running out of runway to make an impression that leads to a permanent job and in my opinion chances are he never does.
Spoiler!
With Poirier and Pospisil off the board, I had to mull over this one: a reliable defenceman already comfortable playing in the KHL, a two-way forward who missed the season, and a potential size-skill unicorn. I went with Cole Huckins but these three are fairly interchangeable to me at this point. Looks like I will be voting Huckins for some time.
Considered
Ilya Solovyov
Rory Kerins
Cole Huckins Martin Pospisil
Emil Heineman
Adam Ruzicka
Yan Kuznetsov
Jeremie Poirier
Ilya Solovyov
An intriguing late bloomer, Ilya Solovyov arrived in central Michigan as an unheralded 19-year-old Belarusian where he quickly earned the trust of his coaches and teammates and saw his usage rapidly increased as the year progressed, ultimately dominating the OHL seemingly out of nowhere. Liking what they saw, the Flames took a smart gamble on the twice-passed over prospect and he rewarded the decision by moving to the second best league in the World, the KHL, and not looking out of place or outmatched at all. In fact, Solovyov exceeded the 20-minute mark in a handful of games this season while ultimately finishing with an average of just under 17 for the season - nothing to be scoffed at for a 20-year-old defenceman in the veteran-heavy KHL. Likewise, while 9 points in 41 games doesn't stand out, this is a 20-year-old in the low-scoring KHL and the Flames were quick to sign their recent draftee ahead of earlier 2020 draft picks even. As things stand, we don't have the sample size on Solovyov we have for most drafted players, but I liken him stylistically to another defenceman who was passed over twice in the draft before getting a chance and never looking back: Alec Martinez.
Ceiling: #4 defenceman (Style: Alec Martinez)
Probable: #6/7 defenceman or KHL
Floor: AHL washout
Rory Kerins
A prospect who, like many OHL players, found himself in an extremely difficult situation in a critical development year, Rory Kerins played just a four-game stint in the AHL giving us comparatively little information to go on: was his 2019-20 explosion an outlier or a sign of rapid improvement? Team Canada perhaps thought a little more of the latter as they extended an invitation to Kerins to attend their World Junior Summer Showcase which he accepted and attended three weeks ago here in Calgary alongside talent such as Cole Perfetti, Shane Wright, Brandt Clarke, Dylan Guenther, Seth Jarvis, Cole Sillinger, and others. Regardless, Kerins, in the theme of recent Flames' picks, is a bit "undersized" by metre stick but not playing style. Happy to drive to the home plate area, Kerins has developed an extremely heavy shot for any prospect, never mind one his size, and continually demonstrated an ability to beat OHL goalies from the mid to top of the circles, in addition to hammering one-timers from the right dot on the powerplay. An added benefit to the Kerins' game is his all-around ability as he centered all three units and was relayed upon to take late-game faceoffs by his coach. Again, hard to project missing a year of information, and factoring in he missed a critical year in development, but the average CHL forward sees a 55% increase in offensive production between 17.5 and 18.5 years of age, which, if assumed with Kerins, puts him on the same track as Ryan Francis and Jakob Pelletier. I think that has to be discounted somewhat as a year cannot be recovered, but regardless the Flames have a potential two-way C/W in the ever-growing ranks which is awesome.
Ceiling: C2
Probable: C4/tweener (Style: Jean-Gabriel Pageau)
Floor: AHL then Euro leagues
Cole Huckins
A scrappy player with a long professional hockey player lineage, Huckins is a forward who has played both centre and wing, but transitioned to mostly wing this season. The Fredricton native already possesses a large frame despite turning 18 years old in May. I don't see him filling out into the thicc Tom Wilson/Ryan Reaves/Milan Lucic build, but he is certainly a rangy player who will likely play pro with the size of players like Vincent Lecavalier, Chris Kreider, Alex Barkov, Tomas Hertl, to name a few. Demonstrating hands unexpected for his size, like fellow Flames 2021 draftee, William Stromgren, Cole Huckins brings the coveted blend of functional size but adds an element of toughness as well, and thrives when crowding the paint in front of the opposition's net where he is able to cause mayhem while simultaneously cleaning up the garbage. Though a player with a decent hockey IQ in all three zones, Huckins isn't beyond undisciplined moments leading to penalty issues, not dissimilar to those experienced by two of his cousins, Ryan and Brad Malone, but not even remotely comparable to the next prospect in my brief.
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
As neither of the public models considers Gawdin a prospect anymore, neither has a card for him. Instead, here are the cards for 2nd and 3rd in skater votes: The Coles. Please note that the criteria each model uses for star and NHLer is different! JFresh/TopDownHockey will almost always be lower than Bader's as their thresholds are a much higher standard so adjust accordingly.
Hockey Prospecting
Calgary's own, and fellow Flames fan, Byron Bader runs the excellent site, Hockey Prospecting. You have likely seen his graphics before. At just $25/year his site is a wonderful resource for any fan interested in prospects. You can register here and support Bader's work if you are interested: https://hockeyprospecting.com/register/
Spoiler!
JFresh/TopDownHockey
JFresh and his partner TopDownHockey introduced their NHLe model this year. You will be familiar with the NHL player graphics they produce regularly. At $7/month the subscription is a no-brainer for any hockey fan. You can register here and support their work if you are interested: https://www.patreon.com/jfreshhockey
Spoiler!
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
