Playoff chances - a look at 10 & 7 game segments

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by YYC in LAX

How many games below .500 were the Flames last year after the 8 game losing streak?

I can't seem to find the answer.

IIRC they were two games over .500 after they lost the 8th game.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Poe969

To me, I thought the rebuild started the 2 years ago tops. I think the team is in the third year of their rebuild which isn't a stretch at all. The long term contracts are needed to keep the player here through the rebuild and into when the team is competitive.

I'm not sure if you're asking just so you can take a shot at the Flames or if you genuinely don't know because the oilers are in a perpetual rebuild and that's what oiler fans are used to.

When you have a Norris Trophy caliber defense man who's also your captain, you sign him to a long term deal. When you have a 22 year old stud defense man who's developing into a stud defense man, you sign him to a long term deal. Most teams don't reserve long term deals only for their first overall picks because most teams don't get many of those.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Oiler fans are the best!

Ok. I mean I wasn't saying at all that when do you decide to turn the corner?

You don't think that a core of Gio/Brodie/Hamilton and Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett isn't enough to move from "rebuild" to "Trying to win"?

Thats what I was asking.

[Domoic]

Originally Posted by polak

That team had Mikka Kipprusoff and Jarome Iginla in their prime.

Yet the current team has been past the first round of the playoffs the same number of times as those two...

[hummdeedoo]

Considering how strong the Central divsion is I would assume that they will not get a wild card spot and that the best chance for a playoff spot would at
the moment would be 3rd in the Pacific.

The 22 game mark is about Amercian thanksgiving and at that pace Arizona - currently 3rd on Pacfic would have about 24 points. So if you can't be
more than 4 points off that mark we would need 15 more points over the next 12 games to get to 20.

so 7-4-1 would do it. Next 12 games we see the following teams.

Some very good teams

Montreal
Tampa Bay
Washington
Chicago 2X
Anaheim - Getzlaff will have been back a while when we see them.

Good teams:

Florida
Philly
Pittsburgh

Not so good teams:

Edmonton
Colorado
New jersey

[polak]

Originally Posted by Domoic

Yet the current team has been past the first round of the playoffs the same number of times as those two...

05-06 we lost in game 7 by one goal to a tough Anaheim team that made the conference final. I'm sure that Flames team would've swept the Canucks of last year.

Come on, I'm a huge fan of this core but the '05-'06 Flames we're a much better team and true contender. They won what was the toughest division in hockey that year.

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Ok. I mean I wasn't saying at all that when do you decide to turn the corner?

You don't think that a core of Gio/Brodie/Hamilton and Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett isn't enough to move from "rebuild" to "Trying to win"?

Thats what I was asking.

That's a great core to build around but you need to build around it. This past year we drafted some amazing young talent and there is some already good talent in the system. This team needs to add a couple "secondary" pieces and then have a few young players on ELC's take the next step and contribute. Next year should be a lot better than this one and the year after that, I expect this team to be a really good team.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Weitz

You don't think that a core of Gio/Brodie/Hamilton and Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett isn't enough to move from "rebuild" to "Trying to win"?.

Can't win without a good goalie. Any team that's "trying to win" better have a goalie as one of their core guys otherwise it's all for naught.

[Finger Cookin]

I'm not willing to concede anything on this season and playoff chances before the end of October. Let's talk at the end of November.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Ok. I mean I wasn't saying at all that when do you decide to turn the corner?

You don't think that a core of Gio/Brodie/Hamilton and Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett isn't enough to move from "rebuild" to "Trying to win"?

Thats what I was asking.

They are still in transition, IMO.

Yes they have some key vets like Gioradano, Hudler and Frolik. With players like that, and with supporting players like Wideman, Russell, and Backlund, they expect to be competitive.

But the rebuild is far from over. Up front, it has only just begun. Monahan, and Gaudreau are key contributors already, but they are young, and team is still learning what they have with them.

Other key young forwards like Bennett, Ferland, Poirier, Klimchuk, Arnold, Jankowski and others, are still in the future. The 'core' that the Flames are trying to build is still probably 3 years away from fruition. They need to transition out the place-setters like Stajan, Raymond, Bollig, Jones and even Huler and Backlund over the next three years.

Goaltending is still entirely in the future. Hiller and Ramo are short-term fillers. The future belongs to whoever can rise the highest out of Ortio, Gillies and McDonald. That is a ways away - at least 3 and possibly more like 5 years away.

The defense is win-now worthy, because of vets like Wideman and Russell. However, it too is in transition. The real core will be Brodie, Hamilton and some combination of Hickey, Kyllington and/or Andersson. And that too is a few years away.

Do the Flames want to win this year? Definitely.

But when choices have to be made, they are still very much focused on the future, not the present.

This team had a lot more success last year than anyone expected. That does not change the fact that they are absolutely still in rebuild mode.

The fact that there are some veterans on the team helping to guide it and keep it competitive, does not change that fact in the slightest.

[saillias]

When the rebuild is an applicable talking point, is when you are selling everyone, have a roster on paper that blows, and acquire a bunch of prospects and picks, no? If you march forward with the same roster plus upgrades, with lots of term and dollars handed out, and you fail to make the playoffs, that's not really status quo, rebuild onward! That's more... just straight up failure.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Other key young forwards like Bennett, Ferland, Poirier, Klimchuk, Arnold, Jankowski and others, are still in the future. The 'core' that the Flames are trying to build is still probably 3 years away from fruition. They need to transition out the place-setters like Stajan, Raymond, Bollig, Jones and even Huler and Backlund over the next three years.

Sounds like ordinary roster turnover that you can find on 29 other teams as well. Everyone's core is in flux as vets decline and prospects "ascend."

[kkaleR]

Someone should bring back "the snake". Let's start climbing.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by troutman

I think the Flames are done. To go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way in the Western Conference is extremely difficult.

Stick to the long term plan and don't make moves that are designed to help the team this year.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

41-21-10 required to get 97 points.

While I agree that things are already looking grim, and nothing in your post is wrong, this is a bit misleading.

First, the sportsclubstats weighted playoff chances of 8ish percent is predicting the likelihood of future wins based on current record. Using the 50/50 odds (which I think most would agree is more realistic than a 30% chance of winning games), the sites gives 30%. Though spot though, either way.

Also, I don't think 97 point will be required to finish 3rd in the pacific. The division looks weak this year, very weak. I don't expect Arizona or Edmonton to be a factor at all so that leaves us fighting with LA, SJ, a vulnerable Vancouver team and a 1-6-2 Anaheim team. 92 might be a more realistic number.

That shouldn't, however, change your point of looking long-term. David Jones should be moved at the deadline if anyone will give us anything. If the right deal for Russell or Wideman comes along, pull the trigger. No futures for rentals, etc. But I still believe.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Can't win without a good goalie. Any team that's "trying to win" better have a goalie as one of their core guys otherwise it's all for naught.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I would argue that you can't win without an average goalie.

Not that it matters. Because we currently have neither. But we have great prospects at this position so long term I'm really not that concerned.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Domoic

Fun Fact:

The Flames were seven points out of a playoff spot in 2006-07 at Nov. 1, then went 40-22-9 to make it.

Source? Elliotte Friedman

And then got completely blown out in the playoffs by Detroit, averaging 42 shots against per game in the 5 game series.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by saillias

When the rebuild is an applicable talking point, is when you are selling everyone, have a roster on paper that blows, and acquire a bunch of prospects and picks, no? If you march forward with the same roster plus upgrades, with lots of term and dollars handed out, and you fail to make the playoffs, that's not really status quo, rebuild onward! That's more... just straight up failure.



Sounds like ordinary roster turnover that you can find on 29 other teams as well. Everyone's core is in flux as vets decline and prospects "ascend."

Every team has natural turnover all the time, yes. But there are two fundamental differences that illustrate that the Flames are definitely still in rebuild mode:

1) difficult decisions will always favour the future over the current (teams trying to win now will spend future assets to support the current team - that isn't happening here), and

2) most of the key pieces (Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Brodie, Hamilton, all the goalies) are all still very young with their best years still ahead of them.

If you don't think the Flames are still in a rebuild, then all I can say is I'll agree to disagree.

[Enoch Root]

one other thing Saillias...

You talked about a rebuild being about moving players out for picks - I would argue that isn't a rebuild, that's a tear down.

The Flames have done the teardown, but a rebuild still takes time.

[Fire Park '71]

League worst -20 team goal differential. 10 games in. The hole is halfway to China. Right now I'd be happy with the Flames reducing the number of goals against and striving to be a .500 hockey club.
Oh and lock all, "No good threads". Karma is a runaway freight train that looks to be catching fire...Seriously, those threads are about as funny a jam stained upper
-lip.

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

And then got completely blown out in the playoffs by Detroit, averaging 42 shots against per game in the 5 game series.

6 games.

[Robo]

silver lining only 6 points out of a playoff spot seems like everybody in the pacific is struggling out the gate

[Pointman]

6 points out of playoffs with 72 games to go?

I get math and all but it's hardly a situation to give up.