Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd21

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Hal Gill put up 3 points in 31 games in his freshman year at college, and 4 points in 26 games in his sophomore year. Kanzig is a similar type of player.

And history doesn't always dictate the future. Junior has gotten lower scoring over the years so always trying to judge based on past history can be misleading.

Sieloff in particular doesn't lack puck skills. He can move the puck despite his lack of points. That isn't going to hold him back IMO. There's a reason why many of us think he'll be an NHLer.

Well I'm putting the argument out there as it seems to have some validity, despite Gill's success. I'm not saying neither will make it but it's against the odds so I can see some people not liking him a lot as a prospect.

If you can use Gill as an example of a SAH defenceman, I can use Denis Gauthier who scored 74 points in 53 games in one year of junior or Regehr who scored 32 points in 54 games in junior while Kanzig had 8 points in 63 games.

[kehatch]

Hal Gill is the only example of a player I have been able to find that played in a NA league, put up point totals of that amount, and had a meaningful NHL career. And he isn't a great example as he didn't get ice time until his 3 season.

Normally players good enough to play in the NHL are able to produce in junior. The fact that Kanzig hadn't is a legitimate flag.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

History seems to say, if you can't put up some points in junior, you don't have the skill to be a stay at home defenceman in the NHL.

Same argument is used for Sieloff's chances.

This is exactly my thought pattern. Guys like Gill are the exception rather than the norm. There's such a poor probability working against Kanzig with his numbers. It's best to call him a wash and hope he proves otherwise, rather than start voting him as a better prospect than guys who are making healthy progressions

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

This is exactly my thought pattern. Guys like Gill are the exception rather than the norm. There's such a poor probability working against Kanzig with his numbers. It's best to call him a wash and hope he proves otherwise, rather than start voting him as a better prospect than guys who are making healthy progressions

I wonder why Conroy says that teams call them about Kanzig then?

Reality is that putting up numbers in junior has very little to do with how well he'll be able to defend at the NHL level. Find as many historical arguments as you'd like it still doesn't determine that he doesn't have what it takes to be an NHLer. He's big, strong, mean, a pretty good skater for his size, a leader. I haven't noticed that his puck moving is horrible. Him not getting numbers doesn't necessarily mean he's terrible with the puck.

If it was as easy as judging junior defensemen by their offensive numbers then we'd all be scouts wouldn't we?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

If you can use Gill as an example of a SAH defenceman, I can use Denis Gauthier who scored 74 points in 53 games in one year of junior or Regehr who scored 32 points in 54 games in junior while Kanzig had 8 points in 63 games.

Kanzig's Royals scored 3.25 GPG
Regehr's Blazers scored 4.14 GPG
Gauthier's Voltigeurs scored 4.27 GPG

There's a reason why it's hard to compare numbers 20 years apart in leagues. Scoring has dropped. Not to mention Gauthier was not a stay at home defenseman in junior so his style wasn't particularly comparable at the same age. As for Regehr he had a better shot than he gave himself credit for, he definitely under-utilized it at the NHL level to make safe plays instead. He definitely had more offensive skill at the junior level than Kanzig but didn't really translate much of it to the NHL.

Kanzig is more comparable to guys like Gill, Aulie (17 points in 72 games the year after being drafted), and other such 6'6+ true stay at home d-men. But as I said in another post trying to predict NHL success for a stay at home d-man by looking solely at offensive projection is obviously foolhardy. What will get him to the NHL is his gap control, his size, strength, ability to contain forwards on the rush, ability to dominate forwards along the boards and in the crease. He will need a minimum amount of puck moving ability but that isn't necessarily directly correlated to points. If he makes a great first pass but then the forwards all get a touch he won't get a point. If he makes a good pass to his d-man partner and then that guy gets it to the forwards who make at least one pass amongst themselves then he won't get a point. What do his lack of points tell us? Probably safe to assume he's not a powerplay fixture or threat at all and probably will never be. But we already knew that. Hard to draw any harder conclusions than that.

Impossible to say he can't move the puck unless you've seen a lot of him.

[Vulcan]

If your next best example after Gill is Aulie, that doesn't say much for your argument. I'm not into predicting Kanzig's future though, I'm just pointing out a stat that highlights a flaw in his game.

What I've seen of him he hasn't stood out one way or another, which is good for a SAH D and IMO he's made okay progress for a 3rd round pick but I don't think his value has increased.

[MarkGio]

Points should happen as a result from exposure alone. If Kanzig was a top shut-down guy, he should be on the ice touching the puck, making him eligible for first or secondary assists. 25-30 mins per night means your on the ice for nearly nearly half the game, making you exposed to nearly all offensive production, which is compounded in junior leagues.

He either has horrible puck luck or isn't wanted in the offensive zone. Both are bad signs.

I'm not saying Kanzig is a bad person or CAN'T ever be a NHLer, I'm saying his probability is lower than some of the other candidates based on a strong measure of prediction (junior point totals).

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I wonder why Conroy says that teams call them about Kanzig then?

Reality is that putting up numbers in junior has very little to do with how well he'll be able to defend at the NHL level. Find as many historical arguments as you'd like it still doesn't determine that he doesn't have what it takes to be an NHLer. He's big, strong, mean, a pretty good skater for his size, a leader. I haven't noticed that his puck moving is horrible. Him not getting numbers doesn't necessarily mean he's terrible with the puck.

If it was as easy as judging junior defensemen by their offensive numbers then we'd all be scouts wouldn't we?

Actually, what your saying is not a reality. The reality is that there's only 180 defensive jobs in the NHL and a 1000 candidates between the CHL, NCAA, AHL, Swedish elite, KHL and so fourth. Only the best make the cut. Points are a strong indicator of that.

[mile]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Only the best make the cut. Points are a strong indicator of that.

What do points have to do with a player's ability to defend though?

Nearly every player in major junior hockey right now is producing more points than Kanzig, but does that mean they are all more likely to make the NHL? No, it is only a small fraction of what makes an NHL player. Most lack the work ethic, maturity, ability to handle the rigors of a pro schedule to do so, and Kanzig supposedly has these attributes.

While most stay-at-home defensemen in the NHL before Kanzig have shown more competency offensively during their junior careers than he has, does that really matter if they can't produce in the NHL anyways? No, because they made the NHL on the merits of their defensive play, professionalism, work ethic, etc. - so why can't Kanzig do the same?

He hasn't produced points in juinor to the level of an NHL defenseman has - all this tells me is that he will likely never be an offensive threat at the pro level, but it doesn't tell me his odds of making it are less likely. If his defensive play projects to match or even surpass that of a typical stay-at-home NHL defenseman, his odds are just as good or better than anyone elses.

IMO there isn't enough of a connection between points produced in junior and likelihood to make the NHL to suggest that points are the strong indicator you are suggesting it to be.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by mile

What do points have to do with a player's ability to defend though?

Nearly every player in major junior hockey right now is producing more points than Kanzig, but does that mean they are all more likely to make the NHL? No, it is only a small fraction of what makes an NHL player. Most lack the work ethic, maturity, ability to handle the rigors of a pro schedule to do so, and Kanzig supposedly has these attributes.

While most stay-at-home defensemen in the NHL before Kanzig have shown more competency offensively during their junior careers than he has, does that really matter if they can't produce in the NHL anyways? No, because they made the NHL on the merits of their defensive play, professionalism, work ethic, etc. - so why can't Kanzig do the same?

He hasn't produced points in juinor to the level of an NHL defenseman has - all this tells me is that he will likely never be an offensive threat at the pro level, but it doesn't tell me his odds of making it are less likely. If his defensive play projects to match or even surpass that of a typical stay-at-home NHL defenseman, his odds are just as good or better than anyone elses.

IMO there isn't enough of a connection between points produced in junior and likelihood to make the NHL to suggest that points are the strong indicator you are suggesting it to be.

Why have an opinion? Review stay at home defensemen in the NHL and examine their junior points.

[Itse]

I agree that Kanzigs lack of points is a really significant warning sign, but I voted for him anyway.

It's not often I would categorize a stay-at-home defenseman as a high risk / high reward type of prospect, but I think Kanzig fits that description.

If Kanzig makes it, he could be a dominating presence in front of the crease and make a significant impact with his physicality, especially since he's not only big but apparently a fitness freak. The potential intimidation factor alone is worth noting.

Also, we're starting to run out of guys that people even remember. It's pretty hard to forget Kanzig

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by mile

What do points have to do with a player's ability to defend though?

Nearly every player in major junior hockey right now is producing more points than Kanzig, but does that mean they are all more likely to make the NHL? No, it is only a small fraction of what makes an NHL player. Most lack the work ethic, maturity, ability to handle the rigors of a pro schedule to do so, and Kanzig supposedly has these attributes.

While most stay-at-home defensemen in the NHL before Kanzig have shown more competency offensively during their junior careers than he has, does that really matter if they can't produce in the NHL anyways? No, because they made the NHL on the merits of their defensive play, professionalism, work ethic, etc. - so why can't Kanzig do the same?

He hasn't produced points in juinor to the level of an NHL defenseman has - all this tells me is that he will likely never be an offensive threat at the pro level, but it doesn't tell me his odds of making it are less likely. If his defensive play projects to match or even surpass that of a typical stay-at-home NHL defenseman, his odds are just as good or better than anyone elses.

IMO there isn't enough of a connection between points produced in junior and likelihood to make the NHL to suggest that points are the strong indicator you are suggesting it to be.

Your missing the point. It has nothing to do with their abilities offensively. The guys in junior that make the NHL are usually much better than most of the other players. That translates to them getting decent production even when they aren't offensively skilled and don't project as offensive players in the NHL. That's why guys like Regehr and Adam Pardy put up points in junior.

Nobody is worried that Kanzig lack of offence in junior means he won't be offensive in the NHL. We already know that. The worry is his offensive numbers are so bad he might not be that much better than his fellow junior players and he may not project to an NHL player.

History proves the point. There are close to zero players with that level of offensive production that make the NHL. It's a legitimate concern.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

This is exactly my thought pattern. Guys like Gill are the exception rather than the norm. There's such a poor probability working against Kanzig with his numbers. It's best to call him a wash and hope he proves otherwise, rather than start voting him as a better prospect than guys who are making healthy progressions

This is the problem with stat watching though - you aren't seeing 'progression'. You have a point - there is a bit of a red flag when a guy doesn't increase his point totals, but that is NOT the only sign of progression.

Kanzig's first season involve him being terrible. Outright goon. Wasn't thought of as much.

His second season, he suddenly became good. He worked hard (there are few prospects as dedicated - just take a look at how hard he has worked physically) and is probably the most determined prospect the Flames have organizationally. This kid is a phenomenal athlete.

He started playing on the third pairing, moved up to the second pairing, and then started playing on the top pairing.

Last year, he was a top-pairing shut-down D from start to finish. He was plus 18 to finish off the year (not that +/- is that great of a stat, but for a shut-down D playing against the opposing teams' top lines nightly, it helps describe his over-all impact).

Points are not the only way to gauge progression - especially when shutdown D are concerned.

Listen to Lowry talk about the kid. Watch how mobile he is for his size. How smart he is at defending. He is a legitimate prospect - hardly an 'embarrassment'.

I am sure all you know is he is a huge unskilled guy. Listen to Button talk about him, or Conroy, or Lowry. Watch him during training camp and preseason (a guy like him is much better when he is using his strengths - namely his IQ and his physicality). If you didn't think much of him at prospect camp, that's fine - just remember that they were told to 'take it easy' out there (unlike the ######s up north that were crushing one another). A guy like Kanzig isn't going to show himself that well in that setting. I thought he was impressive last year, and his mobility this year looked even better (progression again - something you need to see in prospects).

He may still not be an NHL player (a 3rd round pick is always a bit of a longshot, no?), but was never (and still is not) an 'embarrassment' with zero shot of making it. Lowry is convinced he is going to make it. I am not convinced, but I think he has a good shot if he keeps it up (and he has one thing that few busts have - a crazy amount of determination).

As for why he was ranked a bit higher than you think - well, Kanzig is the type of guy who's ceiling is probably a max of 2nd pairing shutdown. However, he has the ability to change the game with his size. You have some powerfowards coming at your goalie? Kanzig will stop them. He will be an intimidating presence (hopefully ala McGrattan) but in a player you can throw out at any time and not worry about him hurting your team. I think he will end up making it as a bottom pairing guy myself. There is real value for a guy like him. Look how the Flames signed Engelland. There is value there. If Kanzig steps in at Engelland's spot 2-3 years down the line, that is going to save a lot of cap room for other players, but still retain a strong defensive presence and act as a 'deterrent' at the same time. Guys who are tough but can still play a regular shift are very valuable, even if you hate fighting in hockey.

[Textcritic]

^
Good post, Calgary4Life.

Much like you, I at first read MarkGio's characterisation of Kanzig as "embarrassing" with regards to his selection at the draft and presence in the Flames system. But having gone back and read it again, I think he was actually saying that Kanzig's selection so high in this poll is what is embarrassing, when there are other, (in his opinion) better prospects still on the board.

I don't agree with him, but I think this is an important distinction to make from his post.

[Lanny_McDonald]

People have to stop using just points as an indicator of talent and development. There are teams in all leagues that focus on playing defense first hockey, and grab players that will best fit the system they are playing. They also teach their players how to work in those systems which make them better prospects to turn pro than a lot of the guys that score gobs of points but can't check their coat. In the pros, where defense is becoming the key to success, guys that learn the defensive side of the game, while still showing growth in their basic hockey skills, have an advantage. With the contract windows being as short as they are now, players need to show the ability to contribute quickly. The guys that can play solid defense, and not hurt their team, will get their opportunities first. Kanzig, Jankowski, Gilmour, Harrison, and players of that ilk are going to continue to be good prospects because of the systems they are stuck in.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I don't know how this became a Kanzig thread since he was chosen last round, but let me add my 2 cents.

I see both sides of this argument as valid, but I have to say that it does concern me that he has so few points. He should be dominating the level of competition at least physically and forcing some turnovers, making guys cough up the puck etc. He also should be getting a few more secondary assists by virtue of being on the ice. The only way he doesn't is if the entire offense is a dump and chase followed by a low cycle while never passing the puck back to the point. Being that it's a Lowry coached team, I can see how that scenario would keep him from getting some secondary assists. But realistically, it could speak to his inability to make a first pass or skate a puck out of the zone, and that spells trouble at the NHL level as every defenseman needs to be able to do at least that much to be effective.

I will say this, he did score 26 points in 33 games in AAA midget before joining the WHL. It's possible that his growth spurt threw off his physical abilities for a period of time, and he's just now figuring out how to do things again. He was pretty poor in his first year in junior, not a whole lot better in his second year, and has now progressed steadily to being a dependable top pairing defender. The only other thing that's been positive in terms of progression is his +/-, and that is more of a team stat anyway. This is the year that he should have some offensive increase with bigger minutes. If he doesn't get at least 20 points, I have serious doubts about him as an NHL player for the reasons described above.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

^
Good post, Calgary4Life.

Much like you, I at first read MarkGio's characterisation of Kanzig as "embarrassing" with regards to his selection at the draft and presence in the Flames system. But having gone back and read it again, I think he was actually saying that Kanzig's selection so high in this poll is what is embarrassing, when there are other, (in his opinion) better prospects still on the board.

I don't agree with him, but I think this is an important distinction to make from his post.

Yes, I was speaking about these polls. I never called Kanzig a bad player and I've seen him play. He has great intangibles, but offense is part of the big picture when evaluating these guys. A player who can't put the puck on net from the blueline or pass the puck to the player who's making an offensive play (or scoring himself) is part of that big picture. But since you brought it up, I think he would've fallen to the 5th round in his draft year without the Flames selecting him. He was raw and very much unknown - not something you gamble on in the top 70.

Top pairing defenseman need to hold the blueline, then either 1) throw it on net, (2) pass to the D partner or (3) pass it along the nearby boards, (4) get close to the net. For a guy on the ice as much as a top pairing defenseman is, there is only a few reasons why he's not getting points, given the limited scenarios he will involved in. He's either making poor decisions or isn't in the offensive zone for very long. They also quarterback the transition, which again, should yield in points.

I think fighting is playing a role in people's selections. Both Ferland and Kanzig are having less successful careers than players below them in these polls. I won't nit pick two or three selections that are arguable between closely talented players, but I'm confident both Ferland and Kanzig will make dramatic falls in these polls, unless this was a ranking in boxing skills, not hockey skills. Mind you, Ferland did have an impressive 10 games last year.

Could he be an Engelland....? Perhaps, but Enga was drafted very late and was purely a goon selection since he spent most of his time in the box. Kanzig was not since he was an early 3rd pick and from all the comments about him from Flames management.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Yes, I was speaking about these polls. I never called Kanzig a bad player and I've seen him play. He has great intangibles, but offense is part of the big picture when evaluating these guys. A player who can't put the puck on net from the blueline or pass the puck to the player who's making an offensive play (or scoring himself) is part of that big picture. But since you brought it up, I think he would've fallen to the 5th round in his draft year without the Flames selecting him. He was raw and very much unknown - not something you gamble on in the top 70.

That's ridiculous. More than half the players selected in the third round of every NHL entry draft will never play a game at the NHL level. I am willing to bet that Kanzig plays at least a game this year or next, and if that is the case, then he has already beaten the odds. In any event, history shows that practically every third-round pick is a long "gamble".

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I think fighting is playing a role in people's selections. Both Ferland and Kanzig are having less successful careers than players below them in these polls.

By certain metrics, but part of the whole process in these polls has quite firmly established that there is no consensus system of measurement for determining a player's level of success at this stage, and for gauging them against one another.

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I won't nit pick two or three selections that are arguable between closely talented players, but I'm confident both Ferland and Kanzig will make dramatic falls in these polls, unless this was a ranking in boxing skills, not hockey skills.

I really liked your post right up until this, and it is these sorts of sweeping, statements of certitude that absolutely gall me. In the first place, I will see your "confidence" and raise it with my own even higher level of confidence that both Ferland and Kazig will continue to rise in next year's poll as a result of good professional seasons this year. In the second place, I am highly suspect that you have watched much of Ferland at all if all you have seen is a good fighter. He skates very well, handles the puck well, can make plays, and can score. There is so much more to him than merely his exceptional toughness.

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Could he be an Engelland....? Perhaps, but Enga was drafted very late and was purely a goon selection since he spent most of his time in the box. Kanzig was not since he was an early 3rd pick and from all the comments about him from Flames management.

Deryk Engelland has also played more NHL games than 157 players drafted ahead of him. I think that one could argue that Engelland was a late-round surprise who probably should have been selected in the late-second or early-third round. In other words, he is out-playing his draft position.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That's ridiculous. More than half the players selected in the third round of every NHL entry draft will never play a game at the NHL level. I am willing to bet that Kanzig plays at least a game this year or next, and if that is the case, then he has already beaten the odds. In any event, history shows that practically every third-round pick is a long "gamble".

Emphasizing the importance of making a low risk pick, no?

Originally Posted by Textcritic

In the second place, I am highly suspect that you have watched much of Ferland at all if all you have seen is a good fighter. He skates very well, handles the puck well, can make plays, and can score. There is so much more to him than merely his exceptional toughness.

I did say Ferland had an impressive 10 games last year. He did all those things for a short period in his pro career. There's value in sample size.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Deryk Engelland has also played more NHL games than 157 players drafted ahead of him. I think that one could argue that Engelland was a late-round surprise who probably should have been selected in the late-second or early-third round. In other words, he is out-playing his draft position.

Engelland was drafted as a goon and earned his ice time as a goon. He moved up the ranks through goonery and he will always be a goon. Engelland plays better hockey than most goons however. This is well known.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Points should happen as a result from exposure alone. If Kanzig was a top shut-down guy, he should be on the ice touching the puck, making him eligible for first or secondary assists. 25-30 mins per night means your on the ice for nearly nearly half the game, making you exposed to nearly all offensive production, which is compounded in junior leagues.
...

This makes no sense. How can you play "nearly half" the game yet be exposed to "nearly all" the offense?