Top Shelf Prospects: Flames Edition

[SebC]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yeah, NHL-equivalent PPG is a farce stat. Ron Schremp, Dave Bolland and Alex Picard should have been superstars because of their junior exploits. Curtis Glencross, Rich Peverley and Vicktor Stalberg never should have translated to NHL players with scoring ability. Context is lost with many stats and NHL-equivalent PPG is one where context is everything.

It's not a perfect stat, but it does predict things fairly well (despite your cherry-picked sample). Jankowski's NHL equivalent scoring isn't just slightly low, it's quite low. He has 18. Most of 2013's first round forwards are higher. Monahan had 33! Klimchuk and Poirier were at 26. And they're all younger than Jankowski.

For Jankowski to top out higher than any of those guys, and particularly to become a first line centre, he needs to have a ridiculously good development curve. His toolset makes him more likely to do it than most, but in my view, having the kind of development curve he needs is unlikely for anyone, even someone with size and skill.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by SebC

It's not a perfect stat, but it does predict things fairly well (despite your cherry-picked sample). Jankowski's NHL equivalent scoring isn't just slightly low, it's quite low. He has 17. Most of 2013's first round forwards are higher. Monahan had 33! Klimchuk and Poirier were at 26. And they're all younger than Jankowski.

For Jankowski to top out higher than any of those guys, and particularly to reach become a first line centre, he needs to have a ridiculously good development curve. His toolset makes him more likely to do it than most, but in my view, having the kind of development curve he needs is unlikely for anyone, even someone with size and skill.

Corban Knight was nearly a year older than Jankowski in his first season, had a lower scoring first season in the NCAA than Jankowski, and was able to become a PPG player in his last three seasons.

One thing the scoring equivalency does not really take into consideration (depending on the source) is the age of the player relative to the league they are playing in.

Jankowski was a 17 year old playing in a league littered with 22 and 23 year olds. I don't think the NHL equivalency of 17 took that into consideration. If he puts up similar points this year in his second season I would agree with you but for the time being I think he is still trending quite well.

He does need to improve but his first season does not worry me too much. If he can get to a PPG this season, and then 1.2-1.5 PPG in the next season he will be fine.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Corban Knight was nearly a year older than Jankowski in his first season, had a lower scoring first season in the NCAA than Jankowski, and was able to become a PPG player in his last three seasons.

One thing the scoring equivalency does not really take into consideration (depending on the source) is the age of the player relative to the league they are playing in.

Jankowski was a 17 year old playing in a league littered with 22 and 23 year olds. I don't think the NHL equivalency of 17 took that into consideration. If he puts up similar points this year in his second season I would agree with you but for the time being I think he is still trending quite well.

He does need to improve but his first season does not worry me too much. If he can get to a PPG this season, and then 1.2-1.5 PPG in the next season he will be fine.

That's more than fine, that's among the league leaders and in the discussion for the Hobey Baker.

If he can do 0.75 PPG this year and 1.0 PPG next year, I would consider that very good and would have him on track developmentally.

[Commandant]

Originally Posted by SebC

0.5 ppg in the NCAA shouldn't put Jankowski in the top 3. I'd go with Monahan in that spot instead.

Monahan would likely be #2 if ranked.

I stated I didn't rank 2013 draftees because the write up would be exactly the same as it was pre-draft. You'd get no new information (as there have been few if any games played since i did my draft preview).

For that reason, because I don't want to rehash what I just wrote in May and June, I don't include them in the rankings... to give the reader something new.

[Enoch Root]

^ thanked you just because you thanked every post in this thread

(thought it was a good write-up, by the way)

[Commandant]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

^ thanked you just because you thanked every post in this thread

(thought it was a good write-up, by the way)

Thanks... I appreciate that you liked it.


I thanked everyone who posted in the thread because if you posted here, that means you most likely read my article, which i am truly grateful for.

2 day traffic stats from CP were very good.