Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[MBates]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Lol. You think the right wing play by any rules? Did you see the US supreme court saying that precedents don't matter?

Like I appreciate the post but it's just amusing.

Well, the point of my advocacy at this stage is that we are not even remotely close to where the US is in terms of annihilating our constitutional democratic norms, and I would like to take steps now to stop that from becoming our situation...because others are actively working hard to chase that exact fever dream.

So, yes, flood letters to the Premier's office and demand her Chief of Staff positions not be allowed to be held by people who violate section 2(b) of the Charter arbitrarily filtering only the public speech they pre-approve to be spoken to a government-backed panel planning our legislative future - and who also casually toss in encouragement that criminal assaults be meted out on those who dare to challenge them.

Or act like there is nothing you can do. I guess even writing a letter is more than you are willing to do to protect your rights and freedoms and the rule of law?

We will get the government we allow by apathy or we can shape the government we want by advocacy.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Really? Because their latest report from June has it peaking by 2030.



https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/as...c3/Oil2025.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...crumbling-myth

By 2050, the IEA pencils in oil consumption at 114 million barrels a day under its CPS — that compares to the about 93 million barrels a day by 2050 seen last year under the STEPS scenario and more than double the 54 million under its APS scenario. In its draft, the IEA said that oil demand would increase mostly in aviation and shipping and as petrochemical feedstocks. While sales of electric vehicles will increase dramatically in China and the European Union, “EV adoption stalls in regions lacking strong policy support,” particularly the US, the draft says.

[Fuzz]

This year, the IEA is again publishing its “Current Policy Scenario” — in part due to pressure from the Trump administration2— showing that neither oil nor gas demand would peak this decade, contrary to the previous assumption, according to a half a dozen people who have reviewed a draft of the report3. They all described it under condition of anonymity. The final report can still change.

The IEA declined to comment.

Uh, ok...
Anyway, ignoring that, this is one prediction scenario they had abandoned due to it not being super accurate. It's back, because of Trump wants it back. That doesn't make it a reality. In fact, it probably makes it far less likely.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Uh, ok...
Anyway, ignoring that, this is one prediction scenario they had abandoned due to it not being super accurate. It's back, because of Trump wants it back. That doesn't make it a reality. In fact, it probably makes it far less likely.

Which way do you want it? Is the IEA prediction reliable or not reliable? I did not bring their data into this discussion.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Which way do you want it? Is the IEA prediction reliable or not reliable? I did not bring their data into this discussion.

I hadn't realized they decided to kiss the ring before I had posted it, and to be fair to me they haven't actually released or commented on anything yet. So we have their pre-Trump kowtowing to go by.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

The IEA is about to revise their prediction of "peak oil" until 2050. Even if you believe in any of these ridiculous predictions, that's still a really long time.

The only reason they would need to push out their projections is because conservatives like Trump and Smith are sabotaging renewable projects. Trump has cancelled multiple renewable projects, some of them in the final stages of the project.

Smith has killed $33B in renewable investment in Alberta.

These things may slow down peak Demand but we are a couple of major technology breakthroughs away from a major shift. Japan's Perovskite solar cell advancement along with China's sodium-ion solid state battery advancement are the kind of building blocks that will accelerate society away from fossil fuels.

Fighting these advancements is a lot like doubling down on Blockbuster when streaming became available. But I am sure you are correct and that it's the Liberals fault that blah blah blah and it has nothing to do with a bunch of rich people lying to you about how this is going to play out so that they can squeeze you for every ounce of profit that they can get.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

The feds have absolutely contributed to the problem. But I sure didn't see a whole lot of success from the Harper conservatives either on the O&G file.

You know what else has contributed to the problem? Six decades of (slightly) interrupted conservative control of our province, culminating in the current iteration of whatever the hell this anti-democratic garbage is we are currently having to deal with.

We love to complain in Alberta that we are always getting screwed by the federal government, while at the same time lauding our own entrepreneurial free spirit. We then turn around and vote like a bunch of sheep for the same party because, and really I have no other explanation, we like the color blue?

People point to Quebec as a great example of using provincial separatist threats to get concessions. You know why Quebec gets concessions? Because they are willing to throw their federal MPs to the curb without a second thought in any given election. And the MPs know it. Alberta throws their vote away every single election because we predictably only vote conservative. It's the cushiest job in federal politics, by far; just ask my MP (Rempel). Pretty sure the only time I see her face is when it pops up on posters at election time. It sure isn't because she's getting anything done in Ottawa.

This province needs:

1. A PST to reduce our reliance on oil and gas prices to balance our budget.
2. Re-investment into the heritage fund and a moratorium on withdrawals for a 20 year period.
3. Re-investment into our education and health care systems (Lougheed model).
4. A relentless focus on attracting all forms of investment (energy, tech, renewable, etc. etc.), not just ones that align with the current political ideology of a bunch of wild rose grifters.

Where's that bike meme with the stick and the spokes and blaming someone else for your own stupidity when you need it?

I like what you are saying... but before we look at PST to tax the people of Alberta, the province needs to reverse the corporate tax cuts that have happened under the UCP. Kenney left over $4B in revenue on the table with his tax cuts to corporations and then Smith doubled down on it.

These corporations have done nothing to help Alberta, even with all of the bending over the UCP has done for them. All they have done is put that money in their pockets and then continued to lay off thousands of Albertans.

Tax the corporations, use the money to support the people or drive more investment into industry diversification so that Alberta is not left holding the bag when the bottom falls out on the O&G industry.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I like what you are saying... but before we look at PST to tax the people of Alberta, the province needs to reverse the corporate tax cuts that have happened under the UCP. Kenney left over $4B in revenue on the table with his tax cuts to corporations and then Smith doubled down on it.

These corporations have done nothing to help Alberta, even with all of the bending over the UCP has done for them. All they have done is put that money in their pockets and then continued to lay off thousands of Albertans.

Tax the corporations, use the money to support the people or drive more investment into industry diversification so that Alberta is not left holding the bag when the bottom falls out on the O&G industry.

No. Corporations are not all massive, multi-billion-dollar organizations. A lot of those corporations are small businesses.

[IliketoPuck]

Agreed. The jurisdiction needs to attract business.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Slava

No. Corporations are not all massive, multi-billion-dollar organizations. A lot of those corporations are small businesses.

You can tax them differently.

[Street Pharmacist]

The IEA does not do projections or predictions. They publish scenarios based on complex economic models.

That may sound like a prediction but it differs significantly because it's simply a mathematical outcome based on inputs, not where anyone thinks anything "will" be.

For example, the "Net Zero" scenario starts with the endpoint and works backwards. It's meant to be instructive on what needs to be done if that were the target. That is not a prediction as no one thinks that is going to happen.



As for some the comments with regards to OPEC's outlooks, I think if you were to review their prior outlooks you would correctly disregard whatever they say. Their raison d'etre is to help their members use their collective market size to influence their income. I'm not sure there's any reason for them to do anything but rosy projections?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Agreed. The jurisdiction needs to attract business.

Lowest corporate tax rate in Canada isn't helping the attractiveness of the province. Maybe it is the separatists or maybe it is the UCP driving away billions of dollars of investment so they can keep their lips firmly planted on the O&G nozzle... whatever it may be, it isn't working and we do not have enough tax revenue to stabilize the government and pay for the services.

Tax the corporations. If you want to get specific: Tax the BIG corporations that are making record profits and laying off Albertans at the same time.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by MBates

We will get the government we allow by apathy or we can shape the government we want by advocacy.

About this part...

https://bsky.app/profile/thebreakdow.../3m25kddlsgs2w

Why are Albertans not more upset when trust is taken for granted? When leaders gamble with your future?”
Chief Sheldon Sunshine of the Sturgeon Lake Cree has issued a public call to action for Albertans to find their voices.

[MBates]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

About this part...

https://bsky.app/profile/thebreakdow.../3m25kddlsgs2w

Why are Albertans not more upset when trust is taken for granted? When leaders gamble with your future?”
Chief Sheldon Sunshine of the Sturgeon Lake Cree has issued a public call to action for Albertans to find their voices.

Fantastic letter. Thanks for sharing I had not seen it. I like this line the best:

"I can only hope that stillness is not acceptance, that quiet is not surrender, and that the people of Alberta will find their voice."

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Wolven

You can tax them differently.

A corporation is a corporation. It’s not just for tax purposes, it’s a structure setup for operations. I know that when people hear “let’s tax those bad corporations”, they automatically think of those enormous multinationals who seemingly have money to burn. In reality, all those small businesses and mom and pop shops are corporations.

Small businesses make up a significant chunk of our economy, and raising taxes there is just shortsighted.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Slava

A corporation is a corporation. It’s not just for tax purposes, it’s a structure setup for operations. I know that when people hear “let’s tax those bad corporations”, they automatically think of those enormous multinationals who seemingly have money to burn. In reality, all those small businesses and mom and pop shops are corporations.

Small businesses make up a significant chunk of our economy, and raising taxes there is just shortsighted.

And they're the ones paying their rent, property taxes, employees and dont have the luxury of being able to shuffle their income from Entity A to B to C.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Slava

A corporation is a corporation. It’s not just for tax purposes, it’s a structure setup for operations. I know that when people hear “let’s tax those bad corporations”, they automatically think of those enormous multinationals who seemingly have money to burn. In reality, all those small businesses and mom and pop shops are corporations.

Small businesses make up a significant chunk of our economy, and raising taxes there is just shortsighted.

What are you going on about?

The small business tax rate is 2%.
The general corporate tax rate is 8%.

You could probably go a step further and split the "general rate" into a medium and large corporation tax rate based on thresholds. Overall those rates are stupidly low.

[RandyHolt]

But the small business corporate tax rate in Alberta is 11% (9% federal, 2% provincial). No one is suggesting changing this rate as it's pretty similar across Canada (although I'd argue this has been a race to the bottom and the percentage should be somewhat higher).

The idea would be to raise the corporate tax rate on profits over $500,000 back to 10-12% from it's current 8%. This isn't brining much investment to Alberta, and bringing that rate back in line with all the other provinces would be fine. I'd favor a 10 or 11% rate so that it is still the lowest, but not by the margin that it is now.

We also should have a PST to help fund programs, but that's not even worth discussing with the government we have as it'll never happen.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by RandyHolt

But the small business corporate tax rate in Alberta is 11% (9% federal, 2% provincial). No one is suggesting changing this rate as it's pretty similar across Canada (although I'd argue this has been a race to the bottom and the percentage should be somewhat higher).

The idea would be to raise the corporate tax rate on profits over $500,000 back to 10-12% from it's current 8%. This isn't brining much investment to Alberta, and bringing that rate back in line with all the other provinces would be fine. I'd favor a 10 or 11% rate so that it is still the lowest, but not by the margin that it is now.

We also should have a PST to help fund programs, but that's not even worth discussing with the government we have as it'll never happen.

Didn't the NDP have reducing the small business corporate tax rate to 0% (with an increase in the tax for larger corporations) in their platform last election?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The IEA does not do projections or predictions. They publish scenarios based on complex economic models.

That may sound like a prediction but it differs significantly because it's simply a mathematical outcome based on inputs, not where anyone thinks anything "will" be.

For example, the "Net Zero" scenario starts with the endpoint and works backwards. It's meant to be instructive on what needs to be done if that were the target. That is not a prediction as no one thinks that is going to happen.

As for some the comments with regards to OPEC's outlooks, I think if you were to review their prior outlooks you would correctly disregard whatever they say. Their raison d'etre is to help their members use their collective market size to influence their income. I'm not sure there's any reason for them to do anything but rosy projections?

Well they do forecasts, and they may not capture all the things everyone wants to see, but they are something to go by. If you have other sources I like data. For instance, the US eia is saying very similar things, with US petroleum and other liquids consumption peaking in 2026. Certainly not 2050. Would be interesting to look at their accuracy from previous reports.


https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/dat...=A&sourcekey=0