2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions - Page 13 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

MacGruber · 05-01-2011, 12:34 PM

I want to like Layton but selling your soul to separatists is akin to treason.

Slava · 05-01-2011, 12:40 PM

I don't know if this will work, and not sure it belongs here. I just thought that this is pretty damn impressive as the NDP rolls through Kingston.http://plixi.com/p/97785326

HeartsOfFire · 05-01-2011, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I doubt it will ever happen, but I think my ideal election result would be a reduced CPC-minority in which they form a temporary coalition government with the Liberals. If all this polling data is anywhere close to accurate, Ignatieff will certainly be gone as Liberal leader after this election, and if Harper fails to win a majority (or loses ground which is a very real possibility at this point), I think he'll be forced to resign as well. Under this scenario, Harper would stay on as PM until the CPC and Liberals both complete their leadership selections, and then we have another election with fresh blood in 2-3 years.

Harper would have to be dragged out of Conservative party leadership kicking and screaming. He would never resign.

kn · 05-01-2011, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HeartsOfFire

Harper would have to be dragged out of Conservative party leadership kicking and screaming. He would never resign.

Is this opinion or from a source? If he doesn't get a majority or if his seat total declines, maybe it is time to reevaluate. Maybe he's sick and tired of trying to work with other parties in a minority governement.

HeartsOfFire · 05-01-2011, 01:48 PM

Opinion.

Ducay · 05-01-2011, 01:53 PM

I think its quite funny how Layton's support has built all from a blip on a Quebec poll. Said poll showed high support for Layton in Quebec, which built hype. Said hype got higher polling numbers, which created more hype, which built higher polling numbers.

Its not like he or the NDP has come up with genius plans or amazing policies that'll change the world in the last 2 weeks; its just been a media-perpetuated hype.

Reminds me of Nenshi's win (whom I voted for); one poll showed him gaining traction, and that media hype grew his "support", which in turn increased poll numbers, which created more hype, and pretty soon the whole city was in Nenshi-mania.

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ducay

I think its quite funny how Layton's support has built all from a blip on a Quebec poll. Said poll showed high support for Layton in Quebec, which built hype. Said hype got higher polling numbers, which created more hype, which built higher polling numbers.

Its not like he or the NDP has come up with genius plans or amazing policies that'll change the world in the last 2 weeks; its just been a media-perpetuated hype.

Reminds me of Nenshi's win (whom I voted for); one poll showed him gaining traction, and that media hype grew his "support", which in turn increased poll numbers, which created more hype, and pretty soon the whole city was in Nenshi-mania.

It is interesting. It seemed to stem from the debates too... Layton did very well at the debates and I was thoroughly underwhelmed by the the other three leaders.

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 03:00 PM

Wow. I was waiting for this one.

EKOS Research Associates

CPC - 34.6%
NDP - 31.4%
LIB - 20.4%
BLQ - 5.4%
GRN - 6.3%

Slava · 05-01-2011, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Wow. I was waiting for this one.

EKOS Research Associates

CPC - 34.6%
NDP - 31.4%
LIB - 20.4%
BLQ - 5.4%
GRN - 6.3%

WOW. That must be full blown panic in the Conservative camp right now.

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

WOW. That must be full blown panic in the Conservative camp right now.

Multiple polls now have the NDP tied or leading in BC, ahead in Atlantic Canada, and WAY ahead in Quebec.

I would say concern is definitely creeping in for the CPC.

The projection by EKOS is for the NDP to be within 20 seats of the CPC. Craziness.

MarchHare · 05-01-2011, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Wow. I was waiting for this one.

EKOS Research Associates

CPC - 34.6%
NDP - 31.4%
LIB - 20.4%
BLQ - 5.4%
GRN - 6.3%

What's the margin of error? If it's less than 3.2%, then the CPC and NDP are statistically tied. That's absolutely bonkers.

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarchHare

What's the margin of error? If it's less than 3.2%, then the CPC and NDP are statistically tied. That's absolutely bonkers.

Margin of error for the EKOS poll is 1.8 percent.

Slava · 05-01-2011, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarchHare

What's the margin of error? If it's less than 3.2%, then the CPC and NDP are statistically tied. That's absolutely bonkers.

MOE 1.7% and 2988 sample size.

metallicat · 05-01-2011, 03:40 PM

I just hope that no two parties will have more than the CPC, and will require the Bloc to form a true coalition.

Fire · 05-01-2011, 03:43 PM

I have a feeling a lot of people that are saying NDP in the polls will not actually vote NDP on May 2nd. Maybe that is just wishful thinking, but I think a lot of them are soft supporters at best and will not even show up to vote. Bob Rae is even warning Ontario not to repeat the same mistake they did when they voted for Rae's NDP provincially.

Canada's economy couldn't handle an NDP led coalition.

jammies · 05-01-2011, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

I just hope that no two parties will have more than the CPC, and will require the Bloc to form a true coalition.

With any luck the Bloc is going the way Social Credit did in Quebec, and will no longer be any factor at all by the next election.

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fire

I have a feeling a lot of people that are saying NDP in the polls will not actually vote NDP on May 2nd. Maybe that is just wishful thinking, but I think a lot of them are soft supporters at best and will not even show up to vote. Bob Rae is even warning Ontario not to repeat the same mistake they did when they voted for Rae's NDP provincially.

Canada's economy couldn't handle an NDP led coalition.

Actually, it seems the opposite is true according to the EKOS poll:

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 03:59 PM

Threehundredeight.com will have their final projection after 8 PM Mountain time.

Nehkara · 05-01-2011, 04:02 PM

Was listening to CBC radio on the way home and it seemed a good portion of the callers were saying they switched from CPC to NDP because the CPC has run a dirty campaign.

GirlySports · 05-01-2011, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

I just hope that no two parties will have more than the CPC, and will require the Bloc to form a true coalition.

Liberals would never form a coalition to make Layton PM so don't worry about that.

My prediction:

Conservative minority, NDP opposition, Ignatieff gets shot Monday night.
Then the Liberals would prop up Harper for 18 months get a new leader and we'll have another election. By 2013 the NDP will be exposed, the Liberals won't be as ready as they thought and the Conservatives led by MacKay will get their majority.