[News] LeBrun/Dreger - Flames open for Business

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That is just not possible. I think people should be pleased if the Flames move at least three players before the deadline.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

I think they can find trade partners for all of the big pending UFAs before the deadline. But dealing with players signed beyond that is likely summer work. Arguably summer work that should have been done last summer, but that ship has sailed.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Nobody is touching that contract. We'd have to throw in a couple of first round picks to get him off the books. We're stuck with him for this season and two more after that.

come on now

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The majority of the teams in the league meet the same criterion, and have won bupkis. Whereas two of the small number of teams that don't meet it have won championships. The correlation isn't there.

Nope. There is absolutely correlation between having a top 2 pick you drafted on your roster and winning the cup since the implementation of the salary cap.

Between 2003-2018 (I am giving a 5 year window between when a guy is drafted 1st or 2nd and their team to 'compete' seriously for the cup so excluding the last 5 drafts) There were 30 players drafted 1st or 2nd overall and 15 Stanley Cup winners (between 2008-2023)

1st overall picks : 6 of 15 picks won a cup, total of 13 cups between those 6 players
2nd overall pick 8 of 15 picks won a cup , total of 10 cups between them

So a DRAFTED 1st overall pick during that timeframe has been on 65% of the cup winning teams. A DRAFTED second overall pick has been on 50% of the cup winning teams. 40% of the 1st overall picks won a cup, and 53% of the 2nd overall picks won a cup. (NOTE - I am excluding Eric Staal and Bobby Ryan who both did win a cup but shortly after the draft year so it falls outside the 5 year window a team is bad and ready to compete I am using for this analysis even though both these players had a big part in the cup win)

Only one of those players was traded to the cup winning team (Eichel) because he demanded a trade

The busts in these spots? Teams often trade them/give up on them. That's why so many teams have a top 3 drafted player on their roster - Because the bust/non franchise players are traded or let go.

Does getting a 1st or 2nd overall pick guarantee a cup? Of course not. But NOT getting these picks statistically almost guarantees you wont win as well. One of those things you can control - Getting the pick to draft the franchise player.

So if the Flames are to win a cup. statistically the way to get there post cap world is :

Draft a player 1st or 2nd overall: 87% of teams
Have a 1st or 2nd overall pick join your team who was drafted by another team: 7% of teams (LV) - And that player demanded a trade and is the only 1st or 2nd pick during this time to demand a trade
Build a non tanking team and go on a run: 7% of teams (St.L)

Sure seems getting a 1st or 2nd overall pick is the path I would choose if i was trying to build a Stanley Cup contender

[MegaErtz]

Signing Markstrom to a six year deal was a terrible mistake. We have an NHL ready goalie in Wolf. The Flames are not going to be contenders for the next three seasons, so we're essentially paying Markstrom eighteen million dollars for nothing. We might get lucky and move him at the trade deadline in the spring of 2026, but there is just no getting out of this contract until then.

Same goes for Kadri and Huberdeau. Those two bums are going to get paid to float for the entirety of their contracts. The Flames are too cheap to retain salary. We're going nowhere fast.

[GioforPM]

I think what JR is saying (which is still not covered in your essay) is that there are far more teams with top 3 picks that haven’t won a cup with them.

I don’t disagree that it’s harder to get elite players via trade, UFA or later draft picks. But pointing at teams that won with a top pick doesn’t prove as much as you think because almost every team has had them.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think what JR is saying (which is still not covered in your essay) is that there are far more teams with top 3 picks that haven’t won a cup with them.

I don’t disagree that it’s harder to get elite players via trade, UFA or later draft picks. But pointing at trans that won with a top pick doesn’t prove as much as you think because almost every team has had them.

Why would i cover a stat ( in my essay as you call it - that was actually the statistics of cup winners -l) that he came up with that was never in my argument ?

I never implied or said having a top 3 pick from any draft on your roster meant anything - that’s a stat he threw out for some reason

It doesn’t matter . I agree the stat I never used or argued matter doesn’t matter ! Way to go ! Create a different stat and argue that stat doesn’t matter and ask why the statistic I didn’t create isn’t being addressed ! Logical !

And the reasoning for the non relevant stat “because others posters often throw it out there !” ….

What matters is having a star you drafted with the top 2 picks , because that is the only way to get to one’s who are good enough to win a cup

I find it very weird people even try to argue this . I guess being a Flames fan crates denial that there is some other way to acquire top talent and build a winning team then getting top picks !

And “almost every team has those picks” is both wrong when you look at the top 2 picks , and actually the only irrelevant part of the stats , because not all top 2 picks are equal . The Flames trading for a bust 2nd overall from years ago isn’t the same as drafting the next franchise player (or attempting too) even though both would result in “having a 2nd overall pick on the roster.

Hence - the very important distinction in the entire analysis - Having a top 2 pick YOU DRAFTED ! Not on your roster

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I think they can find trade partners for all of the big pending UFAs before the deadline. But dealing with players signed beyond that is likely summer work. Arguably summer work that should have been done last summer, but that ship has sailed.

So few teams had the cap space to take on long term contracts last summer..

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Why would i cover a stat ( in my essay as you call it - that was actually the statistics of cup winners -l) that he came up with that was never in my argument ?

I never implied or said having a top 3 pick from any draft on your roster meant anything - that’s a stat he threw out for some reason

It doesn’t matter . I agree the stat I never used or argued matter doesn’t matter ! Way to go ! Create a different stat and argue that stat doesn’t matter and ask why the statistic I didn’t create isn’t being addressed ! Logical !

And the reasoning for the non relevant stat “because others posters often throw it out there !” ….

What matters is having a star you drafted with the top 2 picks , because that is the only way to get to one’s who are good enough to win a cup

I find it very weird people even try to argue this . I guess being a Flames fan crates denial that there is some other way to acquire top talent and build a winning team then getting top picks !

And “almost every team has those picks” is both wrong when you look at the top 2 picks , and actually the only irrelevant part of the stats , because not all top 2 picks are equal . The Flames trading for a bust 2nd overall from years ago isn’t the same as drafting the next franchise player (or attempting too) even though both would result in “having a 2nd overall pick on the roster.

Hence - the very important distinction in the entire analysis - Having a top 2 pick YOU DRAFTED ! Not on your roster

You are still missing the point Jay Random was making.

And yes, there is a way to build a winning team without top picks. The Flames did it before, and other teams have done it. is it the best way? Probably not. But saying there is only one way is just false.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You are still missing the point Jay Random was making.

And yes, there is a way to build a winning team without top picks. The Flames did it before, and other teams have done it. is it the best way? Probably not. But saying there is only one way is just false.

Keep wishing there is another way. There is not . Please tell me the Stanley Cup winning teams that did it another way in the post cap era.

Two out of 15. And we aren’t an expansion team so our path is 1/14. Not odds I would take but hey anything “can” happen if we just hope hard enough !

When did the Flames build a top team post cap era ?

Are you seriously considering two first round playoff series wins in the BT era “building a top team “

We’ll I will have to concede this to you then . If the goal is 2 playoff series wins every decade the Flames can absolutely do that again without a top 2 pick!

Strange that the argument for not needing to tank to build a winning team would be the Flames “success” doing it the other way.

Your guys argument for not tanking and getting a top pick is that it doesn’t guarantee you a cup. No kidding . Nothing guarantees a cup .

But your odds sure are good/improved - 40% of first overall picks in the 15 years after the cap won at least one cup . I would take a 40% chance at winning a cup over that players career on my team ( and it was surprisingly even higher for 2nd overall picks at over 50%) - granted some play on the same team even further showing that multiple top 2 picks exponentially increases the chance of a cup - The Oilers are the only team to not win with multiple top picks

Don’t let Edmontons incompetence cloud the fact it is how you win a championship .

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

When did the Flames build a top team post cap era ?

Are you seriously considering two first round playoff series wins in the BT era “building a top team “

We’ll I will have to concede this to you then . If the goal is 2 playoff series wins every decade the Flames can absolutely do that again without a top 2 pick!

Strange that the argument for not needing to tank to build a winning team would be the Flames “success” doing it the other way.

I think the only teams that have had less playoff success than the Flames since 2005 are Columbus, Minnesota and Buffalo. Toronto too.

Interestingly, Minnesota is another team that has never really picked at the very top of drafts.

The only teams that haven't picked 1st overall are Nashville, Calgary, Minnesota, San Jose, Seattle, Vegas, Carolina, Anaheim, and Vancouver. All western teams except Carolina. Of these teams, only Calgary, Anaheim, Carolina and Vegas have won cups.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Tough to say. On one hand I agree with you that he looks way better. On the other, he was a sub 900 until the Montreal game and statistically one of the worst starters in the NHL
I think if he can string together a few solid starts there maybe there is a taker. Even then, moving a 33 year old goalie with term left on a 6 million dollar contract is going to be tough early season.

Just feel the need to point out that since the beginning of last season, league average sv% is actually below .900 so being above that is good right now.

[Flamesfan05]

Markstrom may be tradable as there is a lack of quality goalie at the moment

But seriously, you have to be pretty desperate to trade for Markstrom if you want to win the Cup

He has never been a clutch goalie, often performed miserably when the game becomes important

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Markstrom may be tradable as there is a lack of quality goalie at the moment

But seriously, you have to be pretty desperate to trade for Markstrom if you want to win the Cup

He has never been a clutch goalie, often performed miserably when the game becomes important

* Well below average NHL goaltender in his last 40 games played.

* Poor playoff history.

* 33 years old.

* Two more seasons after this at $6 mil per.

* Has a no trade clause.

Yeah, I’d be shocked if Markstom gets moved.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Markstrom may be tradable as there is a lack of quality goalie at the moment

But seriously, you have to be pretty desperate to trade for Markstrom if you want to win the Cup

He has never been a clutch goalie, often performed miserably when the game becomes important

Yeah none of those games in that Dallas series mattered.

[Hackey]

Arguing top picks don't guarantee success is like arguing capital doesn't guarantee success for a start up business. Obviously your operation has to be run well but having those advantages drastically improves your odds. Is it 100% necessary? No. Is it a big advantage? Yes

But most importantly if your goal is to compete with the best, you want every advantage you can get.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Keep wishing there is another way. There is not . Please tell me the Stanley Cup winning teams that did it another way in the post cap era.

Two out of 15. And we aren’t an expansion team so our path is 1/14. Not odds I would take but hey anything “can” happen if we just hope hard enough !

When did the Flames build a top team post cap era ?

Are you seriously considering two first round playoff series wins in the BT era “building a top team “

We’ll I will have to concede this to you then . If the goal is 2 playoff series wins every decade the Flames can absolutely do that again without a top 2 pick!

Strange that the argument for not needing to tank to build a winning team would be the Flames “success” doing it the other way.

Your guys argument for not tanking and getting a top pick is that it doesn’t guarantee you a cup. No kidding . Nothing guarantees a cup .

But your odds sure are good/improved - 40% of first overall picks in the 15 years after the cap won at least one cup . I would take a 40% chance at winning a cup over that players career on my team ( and it was surprisingly even higher for 2nd overall picks at over 50%) - granted some play on the same team even further showing that multiple top 2 picks exponentially increases the chance of a cup - The Oilers are the only team to not win with multiple top picks

Don’t let Edmontons incompetence cloud the fact it is how you win a championship .

“Tell me the number of cup winners that did it without a Canadian on the team. None? Aha!!! Then you MUST have a Canadian on the team to win the cup!!!!

What’s that? You say every team in the NHL has always had a Canadian on the team? I don’t understand how that affects my point?”

If you pick a criteria that almost every team meets, yes, winning teams will include that criteria.

All the teams that did it another way? St. Louis. Vegas obviously.

And there are other teams with multiple top 2s that haven’t won. Buffalo. Florida. NJ. NYR. Carolina (won a year after drafting a 2OA but got more later and didn’t).

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah none of those games in that Dallas series mattered.

Or how good he was in the bubble before he was injured.

[Saqe]

Eat half of Markstrom's contract and he has positive value. Maybe a first rounder? The question obviously is will Edwards want to retain salary.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Eat half of Markstrom's contract and he has positive value. Maybe a first rounder? The question obviously is will Edwards want to retain salary.

Eating half of 6m for 2.5 seasons should warrant a lot more than that. I would hope a top prospect would be included with a 1st.

I think the better course of action is taking on a contract with similar cap hit that is a defender or forward. For example, Palat would be a good grab. I still think he is a top 6 forward in New Jersey but he is getting his minutes taken away from younger players.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I think the only teams that have had less playoff success than the Flames since 2005 are Columbus, Minnesota and Buffalo.

Interestingly, Minnesota is another team that has never really picked at the very top of drafts.

The only teams that haven't picked 1st overall are Nashville, Calgary, Minnesota, San Jose, Seattle, Vegas, Carolina, Anaheim, and Vancouver. All western teams except Carolina. Of these teams, only Calgary, Anaheim, Carolina and Vegas have won cups.

Even though Carolina did not draft 1st overall, they still got a 1st overall player as Staal was top rated player in his draft but the Pens took Fleury...they won a cup.