April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I agree with pretty much all of this. The "civil war" in the PC ranks isn't necessarily a 50%-50% split between the PCs and WRP. It's also a far more complicated mixture of people choosing sides at the moment. I think you're dead on with the current PCs acquiring a good chunk of the Liberals base and at least at the beginning of the election the WRP acquired a portion of people who didn't vote in the last election and/or finally found a more conservative option to the PCs.

There's still a large chunk of undecideds out there and it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

You mention the portion of people who didn't vote in the last election. Something to consider is that in 2008 a full 10% of the Alberta population voted in the federal election but did not vote in the provincial election.

In 2008 the P.C.'s received 501,063 votes while the Federal Conservatives received 820,855. One could argue that a lot of those voters are conservative voters who did not see their ideas reflected in the PC party.

[MoneyGuy]

It looks to me that if the WR wins, we can kiss the economic recovery goodbye. The prospect scares me. I don't see it happening, thank God, because I think others will see what I do.

[Senator Clay Davis]

To be fair, the Liberal and NDP support has eroded in this election moreso because their voters would rather have a PC government than a Wildrose. They hate everything about the Wildrose so they'd rather swallow their pride and vote PC rather than help the Wildrose with a non-PC vote.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Its really quite shocking that Redford would bring Klein into an election in which he has zerio ability to influence things either way and comes off as very petty if not downright insidious.

She is one desperate politician right now.

Good.

Well, PCers are muffed right now but after the election, they will give Redford a dose of her own medicine, win, lose or draw.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

You mention the portion of people who didn't vote in the last election. Something to consider is that in 2008 a full 10% of the Alberta population voted in the federal election but did not vote in the provincial election.

In 2008 the P.C.'s received 501,063 votes while the Federal Conservatives received 820,855. One could argue that a lot of those voters are conservative voters who did not see their ideas reflected in the PC party.

While I agree there's something to that, whenever incumbents get re-elected there's generally a lower voter turnout, so seeing the lower provincial turnout in 08 is about right. I'd also say even some of the more moderate people in this province voted PC federally because of the feeling that a federal PC majority would be an Alberta friendly government. They didn't get the majority that election obvously though, but I think it could explain the big difference.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

To be fair, the Liberal and NDP support has eroded in this election moreso because their voters would rather have a PC government than a Wildrose. They hate everything about the Wildrose so they'd rather swallow their pride and vote PC rather than help the Wildrose with a non-PC vote.

No, not really. Liberal support has been eroding for 16 months or so now. Long before Wildrose was viewed as a threat to win the election. They've been at 10-13% for over a year now in most polls.

The NDP is actually polling higher than their 2008 vote, and in line with most polls over the last couple years. IMO, the Liberal losses are mostly the result of a party with no leadership and lacking a message Albertans are interested in finally sinking off into the sunset.

Edit to add: I also think that a good portion of the Liberal vote has been people who didn't wan to support the PC party. Given another alternative, people who used to hold their noses and vote Liberal don't anymore.

[darklord700]

Anybody knows when the campaigning must be halted? Is that Sunday night, the day before the election?

[Senator Clay Davis]

I honestly think they can campaign right till the polls close. Never heard of campaigning must stop. I'd imagine all leaders will be out making speeches election day trying to get the vote out. Electioneering is illegal at polling stations, but thats it as far as I know.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Anybody knows when the campaigning must be halted? Is that Sunday night, the day before the election?

Campaigning doesn't have to stop. Polling stations are verboten, however.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah I don't think the PCs have the math to get any sort of government, minority or majority. I'll be curious to see the Wildrose approach if they get a minority. Will they look to force an election the first chance they get? Or will they actually try and work with the other parties? One thing that stuck to me at the end of the televised debate was Danielle almost pleading for a majority government. Makes me wonder if they'll have any interest working with others.

I expect them to follow the Harper model....govern cautiously but without compromise and dare the other parties to bring them down.

[c.t.ner]

Ouch.

balbrach10:09am via web .@ElectDanielle media cancellations: CBC intvw today, Global intvw tomorrow, & CTV intvw Friday. #yyc #yeg #abvote

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't think that they're allowed to campaign on the day of the election, most of the leaders don't have any events scheduled on election day except for voting and post election.

[Regular_John]

Word on Twitter is Danielle Smith has cancelled a number of media appearances today & the remainder of this week: CBC Eye Opener, Global interview tomorrow, & CTV interview Friday.

Odd move at this point no?

[GP_Matt]

I don't know the rules, but election day is usually spent calling all the people who promised to vote for you and asking them to go out and vote.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by jaydorn

Word on Twitter is Danielle Smith has cancelled a number of media appearances today & the remainder of this week: CBC Eye Opener, Global interview tomorrow, & CTV interview Friday.

Odd move at this point no?

This is very odd. I think we're seeing a Barb Higgins-esque media meltdown now, by Smith and the Wildrose. For people just now paying attention, this really looks more like running and hiding then anything else.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I expect them to follow the Harper model....govern cautiously but without compromise and dare the other parties to bring them down.

That would be a fair bit more dangerous provincially as Harper was going up against two parties with no money and not enough funding coming in. He was able to force them into a longish minority situation because they simply couldn't afford to force an election for a couple years.

The provincial PCs still have a strong base. You risk going the way of Joe Clark if you try to bully them around.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Danielle either knows something big (and likely bad) is coming or is deciding the best approach is to continue to say nothing. Cancelling all those media events looks awful.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Danielle either knows something big (and likely bad) is coming or is deciding the best approach is to continue to say nothing. Cancelling all those media events looks awful.

Bad or not bad, you'll still use these opportunities to clarify things. I can see cancelling one day but cancelling up to Friday is kind of odd. Could it be a hoax?

[Senator Clay Davis]

For her sake it better be. Good luck convincing people you don't have anything to hide...when you go into hiding.

Edit:

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

This is very odd. I think we're seeing a Barb Higgins-esque media meltdown now, by Smith and the Wildrose. For people just now paying attention, this really looks more like running and hiding then anything else.

I was living in Victoria at the time of the municipal election. How was Barb's media meltdown?

[Makarov]

Although I find the possibility of a WRP government terrifying, I will say this: this election campaign has been fun to watch.