Federal Election Polling Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

To me the fact that its a three way race with a bunch of time left in the election bodes well for the Cons, Harper has survived most of the big blows that the opposition parties have dealt out, and its likely that the Conservatives will use their spending advantage heavily.

to me, Mulcair hasn't had a great campaign, he hasn't gained any momentum, and it looks like he's losing some footholes to the Liberals.

To be honest I have to give the Liberals credit, they've run a better campaign then I thought they would. Also the conservatives haven't landed any big body blows on the Liberals, but I think they have been effective wit the "Not ready yet" campaigns.

I do think that the Cons will swing hard over the next month and go after Mulcair harder.

I believe that the Cons will get a strong minority at the end of this with the Liberals in second and NDP in third. Like I said Mulcair I don't think has run a great campaign.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

To me the fact that its a three way race with a bunch of time left in the election bodes well for the Cons, Harper has survived most of the big blows that the opposition parties have dealt out, and its likely that the Conservatives will use their spending advantage heavily.

to me, Mulcair hasn't had a great campaign, he hasn't gained any momentum, and it looks like he's losing some footholes to the Liberals.

To be honest I have to give the Liberals credit, they've run a better campaign then I thought they would. Also the conservatives haven't landed any big body blows on the Liberals, but I think they have been effective wit the "Not ready yet" campaigns.

I do think that the Cons will swing hard over the next month and go after Mulcair harder.

I believe that the Cons will get a strong minority at the end of this with the Liberals in second and NDP in third. Like I said Mulcair I don't think has run a great campaign.

I doubt they go after Mulcair that hard. They won't win many of the seats if the NDP falters (maybe a few in BC), a strong, but not too strong NDP benefits the Cons more than it hurts.

[Ashartus]

If the votes reflect the polls I think that does favour a Conservative minority just because of how the votes are distributed. The Liberals meanwhile could actually win the popular vote and still come in third in terms of seats.

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't think a third place poll is out of the question. I look at at the un-reliable nature of polls in the last few elections that have predicted one thing and then seen a dramatic shift on election night.

If the Cons put enough doubt about Trudeau's not ready, and Mulcairs spending plan, they can turn this result on vote night.

Like I said before the fact that the Conservatives are in a dead heat with the two other parties to me is a good sign for the Conservatives to form a minority government. The Liberals and NDP have tried to bury the Cons and haven't done a great job of it.

[PeteMoss]

New new polls -
Forum: CPC 33, LIB 29%, NDP 29%
IPSOS: LIB 33%, NDP 30%, CPC 27%

So yeah... no one knows.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

New new polls -
Forum: CPC 33, LIB 29%, NDP 29%
IPSOS: LIB 33%, NDP 30%, CPC 27%

So yeah... no one knows.

Or to put another way, everyone knows each party is within the margin of error.

[rubecube]

Forum having the CPC in front it noteworthy.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

To me the fact that its a three way race with a bunch of time left in the election bodes well for the Cons, Harper has survived most of the big blows that the opposition parties have dealt out, and its likely that the Conservatives will use their spending advantage heavily.

to me, Mulcair hasn't had a great campaign, he hasn't gained any momentum, and it looks like he's losing some footholes to the Liberals.

To be honest I have to give the Liberals credit, they've run a better campaign then I thought they would. Also the conservatives haven't landed any big body blows on the Liberals, but I think they have been effective wit the "Not ready yet" campaigns.

I do think that the Cons will swing hard over the next month and go after Mulcair harder.

I believe that the Cons will get a strong minority at the end of this with the Liberals in second and NDP in third. Like I said Mulcair I don't think has run a great campaign.

I don't know. I think the big problem for the Conservatives is that they have reached their ceiling. The Liberals and the NDP can still grab some votes and if the strategic voters actually show up and do their thing, the Conservatives could be cooked. I'm really interested to see what happens if the Conservatives finish third in the popular vote but win a minority. I know Trudeau has said he won't form a coalition but I'm not sure I believe that.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't know. I think the big problem for the Conservatives is that they have reached their ceiling. The Liberals and the NDP can still grab some votes and if the strategic voters actually show up and do their thing, the Conservatives could be cooked. I'm really interested to see what happens if the Conservatives finish third in the popular vote but win a minority. I know Trudeau has said he won't form a coalition but I'm not sure I believe that.

Trudeau won't be able to form a coalition, because Mulcair won't allow it unless its the NDP absorbing the Liberals.

Mulcair also wouldn't work underneath Justin.

The NDP would also probably lose their core backers because they'd have to sell out in a Liberal government.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Trudeau won't be able to form a coalition, because Mulcair won't allow it unless its the NDP absorbing the Liberals.

Mulcair also wouldn't work underneath Justin.

The NDP would also probably lose their core backers because they'd have to sell out in a Liberal government.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Mulcair has already stated he's open to a coalition and NDP and Liberal supporters have been polled as overwhelmingly in favour of the idea. I also think the CPC have a problem with undecided and first-time voters. I know a number of people who've never voted and are thinking of voting this election because they want Harper gone. With the undecideds, it's looking like they're undecided between the Liberals and NDP in most situations.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't think that's necessarily true. Mulcair has already stated he's open to a coalition and NDP and Liberal supporters have been polled as overwhelmingly in favour of the idea. I also think the CPC have a problem with undecided and first-time voters. I know a number of people who've never voted and are thinking of voting this election because they want Harper gone. With the undecideds, it's looking like they're undecided between the Liberals and NDP in most situations.

Elizabeth May says she'll phone the governor general in order to form a coalition government.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May says that if Stephen Harper wins a minority government, she is prepared to call the Governor General and ask that she be given time to mediate a coalition with the opposition parties and ensure the Conservatives don't take power.
"Well, I disagree with the term 'win' in terms of minority," said May, who sat down with CBC News chief correspondent Peter Mansbridge for the last in a series of four interviews with the party leaders. "The opposition parties have a choice."
May said she doesn't like it when opposition parties "skip that step" when they could go to the Governor General to try to form a government.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cana...view-1.3224696

Could she be jonesing for the PM office as a compromise candidate? Is it even possible?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Elizabeth May says she'll phone the governor general in order to form a coalition government.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cana...view-1.3224696

Could she be jonesing for the PM office as a compromise candidate? Is it even possible?

No chance in hell she could be PM. That would be a constitutional nightmare. Realistically, the only way I think the Governor General would acquiesce to it would be if the official opposition also won the popular vote.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No chance in hell she could be PM. That would be a constitutional nightmare. Realistically, the only way I think the Governor General would acquiesce to it would be if the official opposition also won the popular vote.

No it would be totally in line with the constitution? The PM isn't just whichever party wins the election, its who has the confidence of parliament. As much as I don't want May to be PM, if she has the confidence of parliament then she could be PM, and it would be completely in line with the constitution.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

No it would be totally in line with the constitution? The PM isn't just whichever party wins the election, its who has the confidence of parliament. As much as I don't want May to be PM, if she has the confidence of parliament then she could be PM, and it would be completely in line with the constitution.

I could be mistaken but I thought that was more of a convention than something that is formally in the Constitution. Conventions still matter of course but something like this would be completely unprecedented and Harper could certainly challenge.

[evman150]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No chance in hell she could be PM. That would be a constitutional nightmare. Realistically, the only way I think the Governor General would acquiesce to it would be if the official opposition also won the popular vote.

She could certainly be the PM. Not gonna happen, but nothing other than practical likelihood stands in the way.

The GG does not (and should not) kowtow to the leader of the party who wins the most seats. The GG doesn't owe that person anything. Popular vote or no popular vote doesn't make a difference. You either have the confidence of the House or you don't.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by evman150

She could certainly be the PM. Not gonna happen, but nothing other than practical likelihood stands in the way.

The GG does not (and should not) kowtow to the leader of the party who wins the most seats. The GG doesn't owe that person anything. Popular vote or no popular vote doesn't make a difference. You either have the confidence of the House or you don't.

Oh I agree but we've seen it happen in the past.

EDIT: I'm not any kind of authority on the matter but I've read several papers written by constitution scholars that seem to indicate that a coalition government wouldn't be as simple as we like to make it sound.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Oh I agree but we've seen it happen in the past.

EDIT: I'm not any kind of authority on the matter but I've read several papers written by constitution scholars that seem to indicate that a coalition government wouldn't be as simple as we like to make it sound.

It might be something that the public would decry, and in the court of public opinion it would be a train wreck (IMO), but you can definitely have a coalition under our system. This is why Harper and Trudeau talking on this topic earlier in the campaign was so hilarious. We're into nerd poli sci stuff here, but they're both just plain wrong.

Harper can make the assertion that "whoever wins the most seats in the election wins", but its just not the case. While the rules almost always follow that convention, they don't have to. Its whoever has the confidence of the house, and that's it. It was strange to me that a couple of people wanting to be PM failed to acknowledge a pretty basic concept about the job. I mean sure if you asked the average guy on the street they might have no idea, but these two are in government and its kind of important to know how you form these things.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Slava

It might be something that the public would decry, and in the court of public opinion it would be a train wreck (IMO), but you can definitely have a coalition under our system. This is why Harper and Trudeau talking on this topic earlier in the campaign was so hilarious. We're into nerd poli sci stuff here, but they're both just plain wrong.

Harper can make the assertion that "whoever wins the most seats in the election wins", but its just not the case. While the rules almost always follow that convention, they don't have to. Its whoever has the confidence of the house, and that's it. It was strange to me that a couple of people wanting to be PM failed to acknowledge a pretty basic concept about the job. I mean sure if you asked the average guy on the street they might have no idea, but these two are in government and its kind of important to know how you form these things.

Absolutely, but it's hard to spin a scenario where the PM's office doesn't go to a party who wins the most seats, unless it's the current government (in this case CPC). With Harper on record as standing down if the CPC doesn't win the most seats, it's really unlikely. I suppose if the CPC had a wonder candidate, Harper could step aside and have them act as PM - but there is no one. I guess if the NDP won more seats but the Liberals had more popular vote it would be bit of a potential nightmare.
Regardless, I don't think Canada has ever had a reasonably even three way split like we are likely to see this time, so who knows how it may play out in the end.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Absolutely, but it's hard to spin a scenario where the PM's office doesn't go to a party who wins the most seats, unless it's the current government (in this case CPC). With Harper on record as standing down if the CPC doesn't win the most seats, it's really unlikely. I suppose if the CPC had a wonder candidate, Harper could step aside and have them act as PM - but there is no one. I guess if the NDP won more seats but the Liberals had more popular vote it would be bit of a potential nightmare.
Regardless, I don't think Canada has ever had a reasonably even three way split like we are likely to see this time, so who knows how it may play out in the end.

I totally agree. I think it would be political suicide for someone to give it a chance once that coalition falls apart. I have no doubt that the voting public could easily punish them for that kind of thing. That said, the mechanism is clearly there, and its really not debatable as to whether the constitution permits it.

[FlamesAddiction]

May simply said that she would want time to play matchmaker between the Liberals and NDP to form a coalition. I don't think she has the illusion at all that either party would hand her the PM role in such a situation.

Hard to believe that Harper has been PM for almost as long as Chretien was. If the CPC wins this election, he will pass Chretien by January.