Israel's plan is to bomb Iran into the stone age, with or without US help. The US plan is to do what Bibi decides, until it starts making Trump look bad enough that he looks for an exit he can call a win.
They give zero ####s about the future of Iran, because they know they can bomb the #### out if it any time they want, an no one will do anything. The idea that either of these countries care about Iran's future is, frankly, nonsense.
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The Iranian people and future of the country. You know, the ones they are pretending to do this for for their freedom.
The strategy will be to make them so weak that they hope that Iran will be ineffective for the next 50-60 years, and then the decision makers will be dead and it will not be their problem. The Treaty of Versailles method. ( of course that was 16 years but who care about history right).
The strategy will be to make them so weak that they hope that Iran will be ineffective for the next 50-60 years, and then the decision makers will be dead and it will not be their problem. The Treaty of Versailles method. ( of course that was 16 years but who care about history right).
By destroying refineries and infrastructure in a country already suffering through water shortages and infrastructure failures, it's easy to see Israel is doing what you say.
It doesn't need to be this way. Without religious fundamentalists in power, and with proper international support, Iran could succeed in ways Iraq could not. But there doesn't seem to be any interest in looking for alternate paths forward. Might makes right, and #### everyone else.
Quote:
Forty-five years after the revolution in Iran and establishment of the Islamic Republic, 10% of Iranians declare themselves “nonreligious” and 24.1% “moderately religious”; 47% of Iranians do not follow a Shia source of emulation; 45% are either “totally opposed” or “opposed” to the mandatory hijab; and 72.9% of Iranians favor the separation of religion and state. Those are some of the results of a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance poll that was recently leaked to BBC Persian.
A large majority of Iranians believe their government should abandon calls for Israel’s destruction and pursue direct negotiations with the United States, according to a new poll.
The survey by Gamaan, or the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran, found 69 per cent of respondents said Iran’s government should drop the slogan calling for Israel’s destruction, which has been a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s ideology since the 1979 revolution.
Blumenthal after getting briefed on Iran: "We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here. There's also the specter of active Russian aid to Iran putting in danger American lives ... China also may be assisting Iran"
In a surprising escalation of their conflict with the U.S., Iran has begun a blockade of the Strait of Hormel, putting the world's supply of canned chili in peril.
And in a news briefing at the White House, the press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said that President Trump, and not the leaders of Iran, would be the one to declare that Iran had unconditionally surrendered — one of the conditions he has laid out for ending the war.
“When President Trump says that Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender, he’s not claiming the Iranian regime is going to come out and say that themselves,” she said.
If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! President DONALD J. TRUMP
If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Ironically the US sunk all of the Iranian navy so even if Iran wanted to they couldn't remove their mines
Ironically the US sunk all of the Iranian navy so even if Iran wanted to they couldn't remove their mines
I may not be correct, but I believe Iran is using “small ships/boats” to place the mines. I would have to verify that information though, so grain of salt.
I may not be correct, but I believe Iran is using “small ships/boats” to place the mines. I would have to verify that information though, so grain of salt.
I may not be correct but I believe that 'laying' a mine consists of dumping it off the back of any old boat where as the 'unlaying' requires a specialized vessel
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Another PBS Frontline masterpiece documentary on all the parties involved in this conflict. Root causes, expert analysis, thought provoking questions and all presented without the typical BS you get from political sides. This is real journalism.
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Does anybody have any thoughts on what the next 3 weeks to 3 months looks likes? Eventually this is a failed state like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya. But what is the in-between times?
I really have no idea, and haven't seen any intelligent people talking about this.
To get this started, I guess some options are:
Deeper commitment of US and Israel: They need to reduce oil price and put boots on ground. Are nuclear weapons at play here? With Israel and this administration I have to think they are. Does Iran have nukes hidden as well, and does this mean a counter strike on Israel?
Same level of US/Israel commitment: Doesn't seem global financial crisis is a good outcome so I feel like Trump can't keep up the status quo for even a short-term. I don't know if Iran stops if US just withdraws. I don't know if Israel can stop.
Withdrawal: Sure we can say TACO, but I'm not sure this is realistic. Israel will not stop. And I think Trump is under a lot of pressure from his allies to keep this going, as it is an enormous benefit to them both financially and strategically.
One side wins: I don't think Iran can win a traditional victory. I'm not sure what would be a win for the US. A failed state?
I don't think Iran becomes a failed state in any case. They have a fairly educated and sophisticated culture that generally shuns extremism.
Civil War maybe, but failed state no. The issue would be the total advantage of the Iran military, who would likely prevail. Then what? Back to square one.
Hard line Republicans say regime change or bust, but what regime? You have a military that is locked and loaded to coup at any time. Will they be friendly neighbor and good to the people and no nukes. Doubt it.
So ya, there are few good outcomes. Not that I was against this or for it. Just that war is bloody Plinko, who knows what bucket this will land in and odds not in favor.
Strange to think this, but possibly the best outcome for Iran if this destroys the country(and it's got so many problems already) would be for China to support them for oil, help them rebuild, modernize, solve the water issue, etc.
They won't be able to rebuild in any meaningful way if they are sanctioned on oil, and who knows how much damage will be done to production by the time this is over. Would the Gulf states help? Probably not. Not America. Europe has their own problems. China seems most likely.
