Recall the UCP and other activist responses

[Fuzz]

The UCP can also just un-apologetically lie about anything they want, and not be hurt by voters for it. It's a winning strategy for them. No one else really has that advantage.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

There's no designing activism around the hope that your opponent will behave honestly.

No, but there is a benefit to anticipating how the possible outcomes can impact your long term goal.

It was well understood that the UCP would spin any outcome. Protesters are 'radicals', they call democratic petitions they don't agree with 'frivolous stunts', and they will call a list of 6,519/16,006 needed signatures saying that they f-cking suck a 'strong mandate to govern'. 40% is not insignificant, especially when a good chunk of those are from people who voted UCP last time.

They could have gotten 60% of voters to sign and still lost in the vote.

This was a long shot by design, and the important bit is using the recall campaigns to do the parts that actually matter long-term, because protests do not substitute for door-to-door persuasion in marginal ridings.

You don’t need to be having a recall campaign to speak to the general public.

Sure, and that's why the recalls -- the way they're being done -- are a good thing. People see a crowd, a few loud signs, and maybe a handful of weird visuals, and their brain files it under "same old activists", even if the underlying issue is mainstream and legitimate. That's not fair, but it is real. Recalls create face-to-face contact and local legitimacy without needing the street theatre that most people file away as the usual weirdos shouting about the causes célèbre that they're already sick and tired of hearing about. You want people to see that people championing the issue are 'like them', it's hard to think of a better way than a face-to-face dialog from another person who they can have a conversation with, not an exchange of angry slogans on card stock.

Tell that to the separatists and convoy crowd who are growing in numbers. Albeit not to the extent they are claiming.

Again, a recall campaign isn’t needed to go talk to people face to face and you get the same benefit without putting people in a position to think your position was wrong when you fail in achieving your goal.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

It's not about growing a conscience - but these are still human beings, and many of them have spouses and kids and friends and extended family, and I bet a bunch of these MLAs have been admonished by people they respect and/or care about. Or their spouses have been admonished (which is probably the most powerful way to get someone to not run again). Keeping this news cycle going in any form makes it harder to forget about that and write it off as just following orders.

By that “logic” the NDP would likely have had zero candidates run for re-election in 2019.

Under the current electoral maps the path to victory is clear and simple. 12 battleground ridings were decided by 867 votes or less last time. All 12 were blue in 2019, and the NDP flipped 6/12 in 2023. They need to win 12/12 next time. The 6 ridings they did not win all have recall campaigns right now. One of those is the Nathan Neudorf thing in Lethbridge, which should help cement that riding for NDP (new maps are also better for NDP).


New electoral maps make it a bit more complicated, but it's still about winning enough battleground ridings, and the recalls are going to help that effort locally. Who cares if failing recalls is bad vibes in the bigger picture - if the UCP weren't spouting bull#### related to recalls then they'd be spouting it about something else.

I hope that you’re right. At the same time though I think your theory seems to be too heavily reliant on the assumption that nothing else will have changed in any of those ridings that could factor into the results, good or bad. I think it’s worth mentioning that none of the ridings that flipped in the last election needed a recall campaign beforehand to make it happen. It’s also worth noting that there were a couple of recall campaigns against NDP MLAs but no one, including yourself, seems to be very concerned about those having an impact on the results for those ridings in the next election.

Teachers defying the back to work legislation and the UCP’s likely over the top response would have probably done more to sway voters than all of these recall campaigns combined. Too bad they didn’t have a strike fund which would have put them in a better position to do that.

[UCP are better resourced and have more delusional+idealogical ####s willing to volunteer in service of their hateful politics. The centrist/progressive side of spectrum doesn't have the same kool-aid drinking cult, and it's a lot harder to mobilize normal non-weirdo people who are not necessarily dedicated to a single party. I suspect most people involved in these recall campaigns are already politically involved, but I think supporting a recall campaign may be a more accessible baby-step for a lot of others who have thought about volunteering for ANDP but not yet followed through.

Again, I hope that you’re right. I’m not dismissing your opinion as completely implausible and to be clear I have seen different campaigns that have worked out that way you’re suggesting but I’ve also seen more that have gone the other way. Mind you there were also different elements at play in those cases.

Bottom line is you shouldn’t underestimate how easily a lot of people can be influenced by manipulated data so sometimes it’s better to have unknowns than it is to swing for the fences and end up with a result that can be used against you.

[TorqueDog]

What specific protest or ad plan, in which ridings, with what budget, run by whom, produces more persuadable voter contacts than 90 days of door-knocking?

'You don't need a recall campaign to talk to people', sure, that's true.

But a recall gives you:
- a clear local target
- a public reason for being at the door that does not sound like partisan recruitment
- a hard deadline, for that 'sense of urgency' to make contact
- and a media hook that forces coverage of the underlying issue.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

They could have gotten 60% of voters to sign and still lost in the vote.

This misses the point; Nicolaides only won by 385 votes in 2023. That's it. Assuming that Caged Great's 10% holds for every volunteer's list (he said 100/1000 were people who voted UCP before and said they won't be next time), that's potentially ~651 votes that he's lost, more than his margin of victory last go around.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

By that “logic” the NDP would likely have had zero candidates run for re-election in 2019.

You think NDP MLAs had friends and family telling them they were personally disappointed that their gov't did...lightbulbs?

I hope that you’re right. At the same time though I think your theory seems to be too heavily reliant on the assumption that nothing else will have changed in any of those ridings that could factor into the results, good or bad. I think it’s worth mentioning that none of the ridings that flipped in the last election needed a recall campaign beforehand to make it happen. It’s also worth noting that there were a couple of recall campaigns against NDP MLAs but no one, including yourself, seems to be very concerned about those having an impact on the results for those ridings in the next election.

Teachers defying the back to work legislation and the UCP’s likely over the top response would have probably done more to sway voters than all of these recall campaigns combined. Too bad they didn’t have a strike fund which would have put them in a better position to do that.

By your logic teachers defying the order would have simply allowed the UCP to paint them as criminals, doing more damage than good.

There was no path to success from teachers continuing the strike. UCP would have been delighted to let it continue indefinitely until the labour movement either got their #### together or imploded. But it kinda looks like its imploding anyways given the latest from the Lethbridge firefighters union...seems like it was probably a mistake to go so overtly partisan+political (contrary to many members' personal politics) instead of focusing directly on the collective bargaining issues

Again, I hope that you’re right. I’m not dismissing your opinion as completely implausible and to be clear I have seen different campaigns that have worked out that way you’re suggesting but I’ve also seen more that have gone the other way. Mind you there were also different elements at play in those cases.

Bottom line is you shouldn’t underestimate how easily a lot of people can be influenced by manipulated data so sometimes it’s better to have unknowns than it is to swing for the fences and end up with a result that can be used against you.

I don't underestimate it at all. The question is WHO is being influenced. The UCP are mainly just going to rile up their existing base. Hearing spin about a recall "failure" isn't getting [m]any lapsed UCP voters off the couch to vote again next time. But IMO recalls staying in the news cycle has better odds of nudging less informed/engaged citizens closer to sanity:

Reluctant UCP voter --> stays home --> protest vote to Alberta Party --> resistance vote to NDP --> tepid NDP supporter --> NDP supporter

There's thousands of people in each category right now. You have 4 years to nudge them on to the next phase. The recall attempts help that more than they hinder it. I don't really care how UCP cult members twist it in their feeble minds. If it sends any reluctant UCP voters backwards then they weren't reluctant to begin with, they were just lying to themselves and others to justify being a ####iot.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

What specific protest or ad plan, in which ridings, with what budget, run by whom, produces more persuadable voter contacts than 90 days of door-knocking?

I guess that depends on how persuasive you consider door knocking to be. Is it more persuasive than meeting people in other public places where they won’t have the ability to just not answer the door or may not be there(home) at the time?

'You don't need a recall campaign to talk to people', sure, that's true.

But a recall gives you:
- a clear local target
- a public reason for being at the door that does not sound like partisan recruitment
- a hard deadline, for that 'sense of urgency' to make contact
- and a media hook that forces coverage of the underlying issue.

An actual election campaign also provides those things, and there’s always a hard deadline for an election. I don’t see the media coverage as a positive in this case because the entire campaign was too disorganized and I’m of the opinion that the predictable end result isn’t going to be helpful in the long run.

I think the biggest part of the problem was that it was presented in far too partisan of a manner. The message shouldn’t have been focused primarily on getting rid of the UCP, it should have been focused on getting rid of the MLAs who voted in favour of using the notwithstanding clause when there was no need to.

“This MLA violated the charter rights of these teachers so the party needs to find a more suitable representative” is going to resonate a lot more with a person who will vote for the conservative choice on the ballot no matter what(I think there may be a few voters like that in this province) compared to “we need to get this party out and the party you don’t like in”. If the goal was to send a message to our representatives that using the notwithstanding clause as they please is not ok, that in my view was the better approach rather than making it a partisan issue.

This misses the point; Nicolaides only won by 385 votes in 2023. That's it. Assuming that Caged Great's 10% holds for every volunteer's list (he said 100/1000 were people who voted UCP before and said they won't be next time), that's potentially ~651 votes that he's lost, more than his margin of victory last go around.

I think you underestimate how many people will tell you what you want to hear to avoid a political discussion or to simply get you to leave their doorstep.

Signing a petition and telling someone what they want to hear or even what you actually feel at the time for that matter doesn’t guarantee that someone won’t vote differently when it actually matters. Because that comes after someone else has had a chance to refute what you told them, there is no pressure to avoid upsetting the person you’re talking to face to face and they know who they actually vote for is kept secret.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

You think NDP MLAs had friends and family telling them they were personally disappointed that their gov't did...lightbulbs?

If you’re going to pretend as though NDP MLAs in Alberta, and their families didn’t hear an earful(whether the ear filler was right or wrong) during their tenure as the ruling party it’s going to be very difficult to have a serious discussion with you.

By your logic teachers defying the order would have simply allowed the UCP to paint them as criminals, doing more damage than good.

Actually that would have made the UCP look pretty incompetent since refusing to work isn’t a crime.

There was no path to success from teachers continuing the strike. UCP would have been delighted to let it continue indefinitely until the labour movement either got their #### together or imploded. But it kinda looks like its imploding anyways given the latest from the Lethbridge firefighters union...seems like it was probably a mistake to go so overtly partisan+political (contrary to many members' personal politics) instead of focusing directly on the collective bargaining issues

Hahaha. Weren’t you the one who got all pissy because you wanted a general strike while you kept working without putting your financial livelihood on the line? One of the biggest reasons a general strike didn’t happen was because the teachers didn’t defy the order. The lack of a general strike is actually one of the reasons why the Lethbridge firefighters left the AFL if you’d bother to a little bit more research into your arguments instead of just cherry picking your facts.

I don't underestimate it at all. The question is WHO is being influenced. The UCP are mainly just going to rile up their existing base. Hearing spin about a recall "failure" isn't getting [m]any lapsed UCP voters off the couch to vote again next time. But IMO recalls staying in the news cycle has better odds of nudging less informed/engaged citizens closer to sanity:

Reluctant UCP voter --> stays home --> protest vote to Alberta Party --> resistance vote to NDP --> tepid NDP supporter --> NDP supporter

There's thousands of people in each category right now. You have 4 years to nudge them on to the next phase. The recall attempts help that more than they hinder it. I don't really care how UCP cult members twist it in their feeble minds. If it sends any reluctant UCP voters backwards then they weren't reluctant to begin with, they were just lying to themselves and others to justify being a ####iot.

I guess when you’re satisfied letting everyone else do the work for you to try and effect the change you want to see it must be easier to focus on hypothetical positives while assuming that there are unlimited chances in life. Ignorance is bliss after all. As I said before, your points are plausible if that provides you with some comfort. I just personally haven’t seen it play out the way you expect consistently.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I think you underestimate how many people will tell you what you want to hear to avoid a political discussion or to simply get you to leave their doorstep.

Signing a petition and telling someone what they want to hear or even what you actually feel at the time for that matter doesn’t guarantee that someone won’t vote differently when it actually matters.

What? People who want you gone just say "Sorry, not interested", and close the door. They do not hand over their name and address, sign a legal petition, and then volunteer both their past vote and future voting intentions as a polite exit strategy.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

What? People who want you gone just say "Sorry, not interested", and close the door.

People also send Apple gift cards thinking it’ll pay off their alleged CRA debt when a random person with a thick accent and no credentials tells them to over the phone. Does that mean everyone does it?

They do not hand over their name and address, sign a legal petition, and then volunteer both their past vote and future voting intentions as a polite exit strategy.

Most probably wouldn’t but I think you underestimate how little backbone some people have or how eager some people are to tell someone what they want to hear.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

If you’re going to pretend as though NDP MLAs in Alberta, and their families didn’t hear an earful(whether the ear filler was right or wrong) during their tenure as the ruling party it’s going to be very difficult to have a serious discussion with you.

Just typical political bluster. No NDP's cousin was messaging them about their disappointment that they voted for increasing minimum wage.

Hahaha. Weren’t you the one who got all pissy because you wanted a general strike while you kept working without putting your financial livelihood on the line? One of the biggest reasons a general strike didn’t happen was because the teachers didn’t defy the order. The lack of a general strike is actually one of the reasons why the Lethbridge firefighters left the AFL if you’d bother to a little bit more research into your arguments instead of just cherry picking your facts.


I guess when you’re satisfied letting everyone else do the work for you to try and effect the change you want to see it must be easier to focus on hypothetical positives while assuming that there are unlimited chances in life. Ignorance is bliss after all. As I said before, your points are plausible if that provides you with some comfort. I just personally haven’t seen it play out the way you expect consistently.

Bemoaning the failure to strike is not mutually exclusive with bemoaning such a partisan approach - the radio report on this stated that several unions were frustrated with the politically confrontational approach.


Most agree the Forever Canadian was a smashing success - it was the most succesful petition in Canadian history afterall. 26% of the total voters in last election and 15% of all eligible voters. The Calgary-Bow recall matched this almost identically: 25% and 16%. It's actually a remarkable feat.

So question for you - if the union driven citizen initiatives fail, will that mean they never should have tried at all?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Just typical political bluster. No NDP's cousin was messaging them about their disappointment that they voted for increasing minimum wage.

Yeah I’m sure it was a cake walk for them.

Bemoaning the failure to strike is not mutually exclusive with bemoaning such a partisan approach - the radio report on this stated that several unions were frustrated with the politically confrontational approach.

If you say so.

Most agree the Forever Canadian was a smashing success - it was the most succesful petition in Canadian history afterall. 26% of the total voters in last election and 15% of all eligible voters. The Calgary-Bow recall matched this almost identically: 25% and 16%. It's actually a remarkable feat.

What did it materially change?

So question for you - if the union driven citizen initiatives fail, will that mean they never should have tried at all?

Yes.

[calgarygeologist]

The petition sponsor for the recall of Angela Pitt is giving up the campaign.

Derek Keenan, who has been petitioning since November for the removal of United Conservative Party MLA and deputy speaker Angela Pitt, says he's giving up the campaign after collecting about 2,200 names.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ails-9.7071130

[Slava]

^ well, giving up today, but I think the deadline for about 15,000 signatures was tomorrow anyway. “You can’t fire me, I quit!”

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ well, giving up today, but I think the deadline for about 15,000 signatures was tomorrow anyway. “You can’t fire me, I quit!”

Makes me wonder if he is even submitting the collected signatures? Seems like dick move to have canvassers put in all this effort over the weeks just to throw in the towel and give up in the final hours. At least submit the results obtained by all the volunteers who pounded the pavement.

[troutman]

Rural Alberta has 18% of the population and 45% of the seats. We are gerrymandered.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by troutman

Rural Alberta has 18% of the population and 45% of the seats. We are gerrymandered.

Where do these numbers come from? What is an urban population center and what is the classification for a rural riding? Are cities such as Okotoks, Llyodminster or High River considered urban populations? Are their corresponding ridings considered rural?

Currently, Calgary and Edmonton have 46 of 87 ridings or 53%. Population wise, Calgary and Edmonton are 56.7%. This next round of "gerrymandering" that is currently underway is adding seats to both Calgary and Edmonton.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Where do these numbers come from? What is an urban population center and what is the classification for a rural riding? Are cities such as Okotoks, Llyodminster or High River considered urban populations? Are their corresponding ridings considered rural?

Currently, Calgary and Edmonton have 46 of 87 ridings or 53%. Population wise, Calgary and Edmonton are 56.7%. This next round of "gerrymandering" that is currently underway is adding seats to both Calgary and Edmonton.

The 2016 census, I reckon.

Municipal Districts: 479,376
Special Areas: 4,184
Specialized Municipalities: 190,983
Villages: 38,607
Summer Villages: 5,161
==========================
Rural sub-total: 718,311

Total Alberta: 4,067,175

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Wormius

The 2016 census, I reckon.

Municipal Districts: 479,376
Special Areas: 4,184
Specialized Municipalities: 190,983
Villages: 38,607
Summer Villages: 5,161
==========================
Rural sub-total: 718,311

Total Alberta: 4,067,175

Great, now tell what a rural riding is? Because 45% of our 87 seats is 39. As I've already said, Calgary and Edmonton have 46 seats. That would indicate there are only two other non rural seats in Alberta outside of Calgary and Edmonton. The math isn't mathing. What is the solution? Should all the small, disparate urban communities be gerrymander into single urban ridings without any of the rural component? Something like Drumheller/Brooks/Strathmore/Chestermere or Cochrane/Canmore/Banff?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Great, now tell what a rural riding is? Because 45% of our 87 seats is 39. As I've already said, Calgary and Edmonton have 46 seats. That would indicate there are only two other non rural seats in Alberta outside of Calgary and Edmonton. The math isn't mathing. What is the solution? Should all the small, disparate urban communities be gerrymander into single urban ridings without any of the rural component? Something like Drumheller/Brooks/Strathmore/Chestermere or Cochrane/Canmore/Banff?

Do you honestly believe that’s the only option?

[troutman]

As of the 2021 Census, approximately 19% of Alberta's population lives in rural areas.

Current Composition
Total Ridings: 87
Rural Ridings: Approximately 40 ridings are considered rural.

https://rmalberta.com/news/alberta-e...port-released/