Russia invades Ukraine

[MegaErtz]

So it looks like the war will be over soon, Zelensky has until Friday to accept Trump's "peace plan" or he's going to get steamrolled by Russia.

Putin gets everything he demanded in 2022.

What happens to all the refugees that came to Canada? Do they have to go back now?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

What happens to all the refugees that came to Canada? Do they have to go back now?

I'm going to say no, considering there are still refugees from other countries in Canada whose wars ended a long time ago. Ones from the occupied territories in particular probably have nothing to go back to and wouldn't be safe if they did. I am sure many will go back by choice though.

[Francis's Hairpiece]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

So it looks like the war will be over soon, Zelensky has until Friday to accept Trump's "peace plan" or he's going to get steamrolled by Russia.

Putin gets everything he demanded in 2022.

What happens to all the refugees that came to Canada? Do they have to go back now?

Hasn't Russia been trying to steamroll them for the past 4 years?
If I'm Zelensky, my immediate reply to trump is "Or else what?"

Ya trump might turn off the weapons. But that's only until his dementia lets him forget and he turns the taps back on in a couple weeks...

[MegaErtz]

One of Putin's conditions is an election within 100 days, which Zelensky is certain to lose.

[karl262]

The general implication from all putins demands are no sovereignty for Ukraine allowed.

If Zelensky ran for reelection, whenever that might be possible, why do you feel he would lose? I think he'd have as good a chance as anyone.

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[Drak]

Trump already attempted to a force peace deal earlier this year. How is Ukraine going to get “steamrolled” by Russia when Russia has been unable to do so?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

So it looks like the war will be over soon, Zelensky has until Friday to accept Trump's "peace plan" or he's going to get steamrolled by Russia.

Given that the US hasn't really provided direct aid to Ukraine in almost a year, I'm not sure what difference you expect it to make if if they cut that. Certainly not enough for Russia to "steamroll" Ukraine given how little the front has moved recently.

To be sure, the US is still sending lots of weapons to Ukraine. But they're weapons that are bought from US manufacturers by Europe. If Trump is threatening to cut that off, he's bluffing. He's not going to damage the US defense industry to the degree that such a move would do.

All that leaves is intelligence aid. Losing that would hurt Ukraine and tilt things towards Russia, but the difference that would make isn't anywhere near what you're suggesting. Basically their air defense systems wouldn't be as effective.

[karl262]

Putin went all in on this adventure and, with the way it turned out, needs the war to keep going for now, but that clocks ticking too. Plenty of cans need to be kicked down the road to survive:

The return of hundreds of thousands of traumatized and alcoholic orcs is a societal bomb waiting to go off. They'd all be entitled to some form of benefit from the state that it can not afford. The ones that officially go missing in action, never found, that's the best deal.

The economy has shifted to a wartime posture, which is something not easily undone without a favorable outcome that includes returning to pre-2014 trade conditions.

Putin may think his best bet now is to keep feeding the meat grinder, make things as difficult and tragic for ordinary Ukrainians as possible, and keep pressing hard on the asymmetric stuff. He probably believes this will eventually work and Ukraine will grow exhausted from killing vatniks.

But if the military situation for Russia is unchanged by this summer, all while Ukraine continues kinetic sanctions and makes things equally insufferable for ordinary Russians, Putin will be in desperation mode like a cornered wolverine. Moscovites will be plenty cranky if heat and electricity get scarce all winter.

He would have no choice but to try anything that might work (nuke) or lose his life. There's undoubtedly oceans of domestic rage under the surface.

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