2025 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by browna

Fine with the Astros win.
But Jays sights should be on the top 2 in the AL so they don’t need the Astros to go on any sort of heater either.

Both teams in that series have lost a game in ugly fashion. Neither looks that threatening.

[Locke]

Get to New York, grab a beer and a steak the size of your head, kick your feet up and relax and get ready to go again.

[KelVarnsen]

No Sbarro?

[Inferno]

Another one:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1963415352051704222

[Locke]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

No Sbarro?

Everyone knows that Sbarro is for game days only! Clears the system and keeps people light on their feet!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

They took a combined four out of six from the Marlins/Twins, which puts them on pace for 92 wins if they go 500 the rest of the way. That wouldn't normally win the AL east but I think it's starting to look like this year it might. The have the season series clinched vs the Red Sox and Yankees, so those teams would need 93 wins to win the division. The Red Sox are 2nd right now with 74 wins and 28 games left. For Boston to get to 93 wins they need to go 19 for 28, or 0.678 baseball (110 win pace). That's getting to be a pretty steep hill to climb, which is great.

Nearly as important imo is staying in the 1st/2nd division leader spot and getting the bye. That requires staying ahead of the Astros, where they are still up by 4.5 games. The Astros swept them earlier in the year and they have 3 left to play, so its likely the Astros will have the tie-breaker. So Houston probably only needs 92 wins, which would be 19 for 29 or a 106 win pace. Brewers/Reds up next - seems like a split should be doable...

They took a combined 3/6 from the Brewers/Reds which leaves them on pace for 92 wins if they can go .500 the rest of the way. Boston and New York both had to finish at a very strong pace to beat that, but they've been playing at/close to that pace for awhile now. NYY are 8-2 and Red Sox are 7-3 the last 10. Jays have the season series vs both of them so either would need 93 wins.

Yanks would need 16 wins in 23 games to get 93 (0.695 or 113 win pace), while the Sox need 15 wins in 21 games. (0.714 or 116 win pace)

It's also looking quite good against the Astros (5-5 their last 10). They likely have the tie breaker (3-0 vs the Jays with 3 to play), but they need 15 wins in 22 games to get to 92 wins.

All-in even 500 the rest of the way is going to be a good result, although if they could be even 93/94 wins instead of 92 that would give them a much better margin and also likely means they win the AL pennant.

While that doesn't make much difference in terms of the playoffs I think
1) winning the pennant is awesome
2) they've won the WS every time they've won the pennant, so the narrative would be good
3) they'd be going into the playoffs with momentum

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

2) they've won the WS every time they've won the pennant, so the narrative would be good

Maybe I'm not understanding this one, but it's not true.
They won the AL east in 85, 89, and 91, in addition to their WS years.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Maybe I'm not understanding this one, but it's not true.
They won the AL east in 85, 89, and 91, in addition to their WS years.

I think he was thinking the year's they won the American League as a whole in the regular season, but they did that in 1985 too.

1985: Won East and best team in AL regular season
1989: Won east but 4th best team in AL
1991: Won East but 2nd best team in AL
1992: Won East, tied for best team in AL
1993: Won East, best team in the AL
2015: Won East, 2nd best team in the AL

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Maybe I'm not understanding this one, but it's not true.
They won the AL east in 85, 89, and 91, in addition to their WS years.

Imo "pennant" in baseball should only refer to winning the league (either AL or NL) not the division, but I probably should have specified that.

But I also probably shouldn't have relied on wikipedia as a source, as they have 1992/1993 as the only ones, and he's correct that they won the AL regular season in 1985,. I suppose wikipedia is using that for "Won the AL playoffs" which isn't what I meant.

Edited to add: I still think going into the playoffs with momentum is a good thing. They could go like 5-17 to finish off the season and probably still get a wild card spot, but that's probably a short playoff appearance.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

I still haven't gotten over 1985. First year that MLB moves ALCS from best-of-5 to best-of-7 and Jays blow a 3-1 series lead to the eventual WS champion Royals.

[Sylvanfan]

Two years ago didn’t everyone with a bye get smoked in the Division round. Only to have the bye teams win 3 of the 4 series last year.

Seems like it all ends up being matchup based in the end. Will the Jays be able to out hit their poor pitching....can the Yankees hit enough bombs to overcome their bad defence...

Getting a bye really means nothing if you still pitch poorly and the hitters choke. Jays will have the same questions no matter when they start the post season. But it's looking good that they'll be there for sure.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Two years ago didn’t everyone with a bye get smoked in the Division round. Only to have the bye teams win 3 of the 4 series last year.

Seems like it all ends up being matchup based in the end. Will the Jays be able to out hit their poor pitching....can the Yankees hit enough bombs to overcome their bad defence...

Getting a bye really means nothing if you still pitch poorly and the hitters choke. Jays will have the same questions no matter when they start the post season. But it's looking good that they'll be there for sure.

The bye is supposed to give the advantage of starting your best for game 1 while the wildcard teams might not be able to.

Like for Detroit, they'd want to roll Skubal in Games 1 and 5 three times.
For the Jays, that might not be as important.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Two years ago didn’t everyone with a bye get smoked in the Division round. Only to have the bye teams win 3 of the 4 series last year.

Seems like it all ends up being matchup based in the end. Will the Jays be able to out hit their poor pitching....can the Yankees hit enough bombs to overcome their bad defence...

Getting a bye really means nothing if you still pitch poorly and the hitters choke. Jays will have the same questions no matter when they start the post season. But it's looking good that they'll be there for sure.

Sure, a bye probably doesn't improve your odds in the ALDS much.

But it improves your odds of making the ALDS quite a bit.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Two years ago didn’t everyone with a bye get smoked in the Division round. Only to have the bye teams win 3 of the 4 series last year.

Seems like it all ends up being matchup based in the end. Will the Jays be able to out hit their poor pitching....can the Yankees hit enough bombs to overcome their bad defence...

Getting a bye really means nothing if you still pitch poorly and the hitters choke. Jays will have the same questions no matter when they start the post season. But it's looking good that they'll be there for sure.

And it depends what pitching shows up.

Jays starters have had stretches of looking dominant and some of looking bad.

Bullpen has looked bad most of the year but the actually bodies in the pen have the stuff that they could maybe have a hot 2-3 week stretch and have guys that have gotten good results at times even just this year.

This team is consistently pretty unpredictable which is probably the frustrating part, but have also found different ways to win all season long, which is the exciting part.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

But it improves your odds of making the ALDS quite a bit.

Sure, but what's the difference in losing 2 WC games vs the 3 in the ALDS? Are you going to crow about being the 8th best playoff team? If anything you feel better about winning a WC round and then losing in the Division round.

Bottom line these guys need to win some playoff games no matter who they play.

[SuperMatt18]

Still think it's stupid the divisional series is only 5 games.

Divisional, Championship, and World Series should all be 7 games.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Still think it's stupid the divisional series is only 5 games.

Divisional, Championship, and World Series should all be 7 games.

Each team could easily do without 2 interleague series to go to a 156 game schedule and start the playoffs earlier.

Does a team like the Pirates really lose out by having 3 home games with 10,000 people showing up taken away?

With dynamic pricing models...the good teams with high attendance likely can charge more as there's less games to sell.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Each team could easily do without 2 interleague series to go to a 156 game schedule and start the playoffs earlier.

Does a team like the Pirates really lose out by having 3 home games with 10,000 people showing up taken away?

With dynamic pricing models...the good teams with high attendance likely can charge more as there's less games to sell.

I'd go down to 12 games in division (saving 4) and dropping to an even 6 for outside of the division games intra-league. That saves another 2 getting to 156.

I like the inter-league games for a chance to play everyone once per year.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Sure, but what's the difference in losing 2 WC games vs the 3 in the ALDS? Are you going to crow about being the 8th best playoff team? If anything you feel better about winning a WC round and then losing in the Division round.

Bottom line these guys need to win some playoff games no matter who they play.

Not a lot, but for a team where one of the biggest issues has been inconsistency I think a longer series is better, and there should be a bit of an advantage potentially not facing the opponents #1 starter until game 2.

Plus it's one less series for them to get knocked out by a bad break.

But yeah, if you think they're going to lose out in straight games it doesn't matter - but I'm enjoying this season enough to hold out hope that doesn't happen.

[browna]

Yeah given the position they are in, a wild card game would mean they’ve slumped the rest of the season. They aren’t blowing the doors off as it is, .500 or so the last 30 games.

And the amount of buildup, stress and thus mental energy expended and then relief to get through (assuming they do) the first round, won’t have them setup well for future rounds.

Questions will be around the pen, around the starters and around Schneider himself, given his last two playoff managing optics. 3 game series would amplify that. 5 isn’t ideal either but they can settle in a little more.

They absolutely need the first round bye, given where they are now.