Edmonton is No Good XII: "I Dunno.. it's Just Not Good."

[VilleN]

Statistically, forwards usually have their peak seasons between 24-28. So McDavid's best years are behind him, and I'd expect a slow decline - Draisaitl as well. Nurse(lol), and RNH are also going to be steadily declining, if not approaching a significant drop off given their ages... Eckholm too... the oldest team in the league keeps getting older.

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

This has been the speculation from a lot of people, including Friedman.
And it makes sense.
He probably isn't ready to move on, including just after his bud Leon committed. But he doesn't want to tie himself there for the rest of the career. I think he signs for 3 years.

I think he knows that not winning a cup for the team that drafted him will significantly affect his legacy.

I don't see why he would stop short on what would surely be the most lucrative contract in NHL history by signing long term. As a business/financial decision it doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Reggie Dunlop]

He signs a two-way because Bakersfield is nicer.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Igottago

I don't see why he would stop short on what would surely be the most lucrative contract in NHL history by signing long term. As a business/financial decision it doesn't make a lot of sense.

It probably makes more sense to go short term now, and then continually sign shorter deals until he retires... with the cap going up he probably maximizes his earning that way rather than signing long term... that is provided he continues to be a top 3 player into his mid-late thirties and avoids injury.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

This has been the speculation from a lot of people, including Friedman.
And it makes sense.
He probably isn't ready to move on, including just after his bud Leon committed. But he doesn't want to tie himself there for the rest of the career. I think he signs for 3 years.

I think he knows that not winning a cup for the team that drafted him will significantly affect his legacy.

If he is worried about his legacy he should stop diving

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Statistically, forwards usually have their peak seasons between 24-28. So McDavid's best years are behind him, and I'd expect a slow decline - Draisaitl as well. Nurse(lol), and RNH are also going to be steadily declining, if not approaching a significant drop off given their ages... Eckholm too... the oldest team in the league keeps getting older.

True, but McDavid is an exception in most ways.
The key is when does he start to see any decline in his speed, because that's his super power - the ability to make plays at speed unlike any other player in the history of the game.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

If he is worried about his legacy he should stop diving

Meh. No one will care ultimately.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

True, but McDavid is an exception in most ways.
The key is when does he start to see any decline in his speed, because that's his super power - the ability to make plays at speed unlike any other player in the history of the game.

I agree, and I'm just going based off of intuition, but you'd think speed would be one of the first things to be affected. I don't know that he'll be able to stay as impactful and productive as Crosby has, just based on style of play... could be wrong of course.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Yup and alternatively if he can't win in Edmonton, and goes on to win it with the Rangers (as an example), it will be a big blemish on his record. Though I always think Bourque seems to get a pass for the same thing.

But if you really think about the list of best players in NHL history, they all got it done with their original team. So immediately it puts him behind Lemiuex, Gretzky, Orr, Howe, Crosby, Ovechkin, and on and on.

I'm trying to think of other examples of all time greats, that won a cup, but not with their drafted team. Marcel Dionne is the example of the guy who just never won it, and we know how that impacts his legacy. But who are others on the all time list that won it with a different team? Hull, Francis. Who else?

If he wants to go down as the best ever he needs 1 in Edmonton at least. I agree that no matter what happens after, it hurts his chances being put in the best of the best discussion.

The players you listed are the only ones that matter to McDavid. Next level players he likely has them beat in the all-time discussion.

1+ cup in Edmonton
1+ cup elsewhere
2000+ points
300+ playoffs points

I think his legacy is what this is about more so than winning one for the fans. Players in the GOAT discussion in all sports consider their legacy more than anything else.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

True, but McDavid is an exception in most ways.
The key is when does he start to see any decline in his speed, because that's his super power - the ability to make plays at speed unlike any other player in the history of the game.

I think it comes down to health. Players like Mcdavid are a different type of person, the commitment for players like this would break 99.99% of people mentally in just a few months.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I agree, and I'm just going based off of intuition, but you'd think speed would be one of the first things to be affected. I don't know that he'll be able to stay as impactful and productive as Crosby has, just based on style of play... could be wrong of course.

I do agree on Sid vs McDavid for ages 35+. But Mcdavid is 28. He needs to make things happen in the next 7 years. He also probably passes Sid in some major individual categories before he turns 35. He needs 2-3 cups to put himself ahead of Sid, but no question the stats favour McDavid.

Sid is a tank. Physically a smaller Lebron James. Even with speed gone his smarts and strength and skill can make him elite even with losing a step. Sid might be dominate at 40, commitment is that next level that very few have ever had.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

True, but McDavid is an exception in most ways.
The key is when does he start to see any decline in his speed, because that's his super power - the ability to make plays at speed unlike any other player in the history of the game.

Plenty of players in their 30's are producing at or above career levels as just look at the seasons Panarin and Kucherov have put up into their 30's. It's possible McDavid's career season may possibly still be ahead of him provided he doesn't suffer injuries that affect his wheels.

[Red Slinger]

I could have sworn I clicked on the "Edmonton is No Good..." thread. I must be mistaken.

But regardless of the thread, McDavid, legacy or anything else, Edmonton is, always has been and always will be NO GOOD.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Plenty of players in their 30's are producing at or above career levels as just look at the seasons Panarin and Kucherov have put up into their 30's. It's possible McDavid's career season may possibly still be ahead of him provided he doesn't suffer injuries that affect his wheels.

Kucherov is crafty though. McDavid isn't a smart man.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Plenty of players in their 30's are producing at or above career levels as just look at the seasons Panarin and Kucherov have put up into their 30's. It's possible McDavid's career season may possibly still be ahead of him provided he doesn't suffer injuries that affect his wheels.

You need to be more pessimistic.

A decline can also mean 100 point seasons instead of 130-150. I see that as a distinct possibility and it may have already begun. Also seeing as his GAF meter about the regular season appears to have been knocked down especially this past season, which was a little more ordinary for him.

He cares more about playoffs now than bagging an extra secondary assist per night to retain the scoring title.

Remains to be seen if this is actual growth of character or him just mad about not having won at any level since junior (tehe).

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Kucherov is crafty though. McDavid isn't a smart man.

Skate in straight line really fast and bank on "right of way" holding true.

That's how he can get away with dangling through 3 guys. Its taboo for god knows what reason to simply knock him on his ass.

[CroFlames]

I can't think of anything better than McDavid signing an 8 x 20% max deal, and the Oilers miss the playoffs.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

True, but McDavid is an exception in most ways.
The key is when does he start to see any decline in his speed, because that's his super power - the ability to make plays at speed unlike any other player in the history of the game.

If you look at his PPG stats it looks like he's already on the way down:
Age at the end of the season in brackets.

2016: 1.07 (19)
2017: 1.22 (20)
2018: 1.32 (21)
2019: 1.49 (22)
2020: 1.52 (23)
2021: 1.88 (24)
2022: 1.54 (25)
2023: 1.87 (26)
2024: 1.74 (27)
2025: 1.49 (28)


Plot that up, and it looks like a pretty typical arc for a forward who has peaked and starts to decline.

Don't get me wrong 1.5 pts/game is still pretty freaking good. Maybe he hangs in there, maybe he bounces back, if either of those happen, it looks pretty good.
But he looks to be following a pretty typical aging curve. Considering that's pretty standard for most forwards, and the ammount of miles the guy has put on, I would say it's more likely he continues to decline than not.

Just for kicks I overlayed McDavid's PPG and Gretzky's. If you scale up McDavids to match the PPG, it looks eerily similar to Wayne's, where he peaked for for 3 of 4 years around 24, and then steadily declined.
Still pretty good, but

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I can't think of anything better than McDavid signing an 8 x 20% max deal, and the Oilers miss the playoffs.

On every highlight goal I've seen of him I've thought "that's terrible defence".

I wonder if Regher would have caught him a good one or if he's too fast for that.

I thought a big reason for the Panthers win was them not caving to his rushes.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

If you look at his PPG stats it looks like he's already on the way down:
Age at the end of the season in brackets.

2016: 1.07 (19)
2017: 1.22 (20)
2018: 1.32 (21)
2019: 1.49 (22)
2020: 1.52 (23)
2021: 1.88 (24)
2022: 1.54 (25)
2023: 1.87 (26)
2024: 1.74 (27)
2025: 1.49 (28)


Plot that up, and it looks like a pretty typical arc for a forward who has peaked and starts to decline.

Don't get me wrong 1.5 pts/game is still pretty freaking good. Maybe he hangs in there, maybe he bounces back, if either of those happen, it looks pretty good.
But he looks to be following a pretty typical aging curve. Considering that's pretty standard for most forwards, and the ammount of miles the guy has put on, I would say it's more likely he continues to decline than not.

Just for kicks I overlayed McDavid's PPG and Gretzky's. If you scale up McDavids to match the PPG, it looks eerily similar to Wayne's, where he peaked for for 3 of 4 years around 24, and then steadily declined.
Still pretty good, but

Hard to say we're seeing a trend there... could be dip like 2022... another year of decline and we can start to predict...