[Game Takes] Flames 1 Habs 0

[Bingo]

Flames 1 Habs 0

- Farabee with the only goal
- Wolf with his third shut out (rookie record for Flames)
- Back in a playoff spot

[Cheese]

Wolf is a calming influence. He doesn't give up any second chances and his rebound control is fantastic. Some of the glove saves he made tonight we're incredible, but again, he just makes it look easy.

[Bingo]

Flames need to go 8-11-0 .421 to get into a top ten pick

Flames need to go 10-7-2 .578 to secure the final playoff spot

[BurningSteel]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames need to go 8-11-0 .421 to get into a top ten pick

Flames need to go 10-7-2 .578 to secure the final playoff spot

So there's a chance!

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames need to go 8-11-0 .421 to get into a top ten pick

Flames need to go 10-7-2 .578 to secure the final playoff spot

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Wolf is a calming influence. He doesn't give up any second chances and his rebound control is fantastic. Some of the glove saves he made tonight we're incredible, but again, he just makes it look easy.

Apparently his rebound control numbers are below average.

He might be the most mobile goalie in the league though. And by mobile, I don't mean flopping all over the place like Markstrom, I mean getting across the ice quickly, and in complete control. One of the best goalies I have ever seen at that - Kipper-esque.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames need to go 8-11-0 .421 to get into a top ten pick

Flames need to go 10-7-2 .578 to secure the final playoff spot

22 points to win it outright. 21 to get into a tie in which they have a decent chance of holding the tie breaker on.

But if you want bottom 10, I think you have to come in under 85 points.

SJ, CHI, BUF, NSH, PIT, SEA, PHI, ANA, BOS are all but locked into the bottom 9 with paces of 83 points or less. Plust most of them sold off, so of that group I think Anaheim is the only one who might not fall off. To let all of Utah, St. Louis, Detroit, both New York teams, and Montreal pass them...I think they need be 7-12. Certainly no better than 7-11-1 (which is nitpicking yes). There's 6 teams that I currently have pacing to finish between 86 and 88 points

[Bingo]

Just did a quick summary of Flames games this year.

Last night was the 10th time that Dustin Wolf either stole or helped steal a point this year.

Formula ...

If xGA-GA > Margin or if XGA - GA is more than -.99 in a game lost in overtime or a shoot out the goalie gets some credit.

10 times.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just did a quick summary of Flames games this year.

Last night was the 10th time that Dustin Wolf either stole or helped steal a point this year.

Formula ...

If xGA-GA > Margin or if XGA - GA is more than -.99 in a game lost in overtime or a shoot out the goalie gets some credit.

10 times.

Okay, but what about the other goalie? Dobes was just as good as Wolf last night - hard to say he stole a point when both goalies were equally stellar.

And I would think that has probably been the case in other games as well.

(not trying to take anything away from Wolf here, just saying that claiming he stole a point, when the other goalie stood on his head, seems misleading)

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just did a quick summary of Flames games this year.

Last night was the 10th time that Dustin Wolf either stole or helped steal a point this year.

Formula ...

If xGA-GA > Margin or if XGA - GA is more than -.99 in a game lost in overtime or a shoot out the goalie gets some credit.

10 times.

Feels like the adage that you "build from the net out" isn't really a good way to do it, well unless you're willing to stick with the young tender in the NHL, not the minors.

[Bingo]

I just think you accept nice things!

The Flames seem to have two legit stars on their hands now in Wolf and perhaps Parekh.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Okay, but what about the other goalie? Dobes was just as good as Wolf last night - hard to say he stole a point when both goalies were equally stellar.

And I would think that has probably been the case in other games as well.

(not trying to take anything away from Wolf here, just saying that claiming he stole a point, when the other goalie stood on his head, seems misleading)

By using the same formula Dobes wouldn't get credit for a steal (certainly not saying it's the right formula).

Montreal lost by 1 goal and he saved 0.53 goals above expected, so he alone couldn't have reversed the score or earned a point.

And Montreal was up 10-6 in high danger and 2.33 to 1.53 in expected goals all situations.

He was really really good, but he wasn't Wolf.

[Enoch Root]

He doesn't have to be Wolf. I am just saying that both goalies' performances need to be considered, if people want to claim points stolen.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He doesn't have to be Wolf. I am just saying that both goalies' performances need to be considered, if people want to claim points stolen.

They both played really well, and I don't think we are necessarily disagreeing about anything here.

These things aren't a formula. They're subjective.

But to make it objective I laid out a set of parameters to label a game as a steal.

- Flames get points
- xGA - GA > Margin

Habs didn't get any points, and Wolf had a larger xGA-GA by a fair bit.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

By using the same formula Dobes wouldn't get credit for a steal (certainly not saying it's the right formula).

Montreal lost by 1 goal and he saved 0.53 goals above expected, so he alone couldn't have reversed the score or earned a point.

And Montreal was up 10-6 in high danger and 2.33 to 1.53 in expected goals all situations.

He was really really good, but he wasn't Wolf.

These numbers are wildly different depending on the site...Natural Stat Trick had the game much closer. virtually even.

Wolf was one better than the other guy...I certainly don't think the Flames deserved to lose but Montreal probably deserved overtime. That being said the goalie is part of the team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

These numbers are wildly different depending on the site...Natural Stat Trick had the game much closer. virtually even.

Wolf was one better than the other guy...I certainly don't think the Flames deserved to lose but Montreal probably deserved overtime. That being said the goalie is part of the team.

Those are the stats from NaturalStatTrick

HD 10-6
xG 2.33-1.53

That's a 60% game for Montreal.

Moneypuck Deserve to win had it at 57% Montreal.

That's a steal.