Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Fair to say the ship has sailed on this thread. I'm eating crow as I thought for sure that this was a bottom 5 team going into the season. Hats off to the coaching staff and players for believing in themselves and working together to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts.

Agreed.

I feel I had the forwards right ... some depth but no top line.

But I completely underestimated Huska's ability to turn spare parts defensemen into a system that could give a rookie goalie a chance.

Then rookie goalie turned out to be an elite goaltender.

[Bingo]

25 games to go and here are the bidirectional targets.

Team Suck:

They need to go 9-15-1 or a .380 win percentage to move into a tie with the St. Louis Blues for the 10th overall pick. This would be worse if it wasn't for the bottom rising (Blues over .500)

Team Playoffs:

They need to go 13-11-1 to get to 91 points and edge out Vancouver who is on pace for 90.

That's why this trip is so important. If they come home needed to go 2 games over the rest of the way they have a really good chance. If that number is four games under not so much.

[CroFlames]

There's no way the Flames will be bad enough.

They have to go for playoffs, and the trades for Farabee & Frost make me believe Conny also sees this. The Caps win was huge.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

25 games to go and here are the bidirectional targets.

Team Suck:

They need to go 9-15-1 or a .380 win percentage to move into a tie with the St. Louis Blues for the 10th overall pick. This would be worse if it wasn't for the bottom rising (Blues over .500)

Team Playoffs:

They need to go 13-11-1 to get to 91 points and edge out Vancouver who is on pace for 90.

That's why this trip is so important. If they come home needed to go 2 games over the rest of the way they have a really good chance. If that number is four games under not so much.

And even then they have to be worse than the Blues.

So if the Blues finish with 83 points which their current pace is, then they'd have to finish with 82 points or .500.

Really to be bottom 10 they can't have more than 82 points, which is .360 the rest of the way or like 8-15-2 ... I just don't see a stretch that this team plays that poorly - unless they mix like a 6 game losing streak in there at some point.

[SuperMatt18]

When you look at the Western conference playoff race it really feels like 6 teams are probably locks: Winnipeg, Dallas, Vegas, Minnesota, Edmonton, LA. They all have P% over .620 and have been in playoff spots most of the year.

And 4 teams with no real shot since they sit .450 or worse: Seattle, Nashville, Chicago, San Jose.

Then it will be the bubble teams - that TBH haven't been great over the last 20 games. All of the teams in the playoff bubble picture have actually underperformed vs their full season pace over the last 20 games. They also all have a very similar Strength of Schedule remaining over the final 20-25 games.

If you make an assumption the will play the same as their last 20 game pace, over the remainder of the season then the playoff threshold is actually pretty low.

Full Season / Last 20 Games / Projected Pace if stay at last 20 games pace

Colorado: .576 / .500 / 91 points (.543 remaining schedule strength)
Calgary - .561 / .525 / 90 points (.555 remaining schedule strength)

--------- Playoff Threshold ----------

Vancouver - .553 / .475 / 87 points (.553 remaining schedule strength)
Utah - .515 / .500 / 84 points (.543 remaining schedule strength)
St. Louis - .508 / .500 / 83 points (.543 remaining schedule strength)

------- Likely Bottom 10 Pick Threshold -------

Anaheim - .500 / . 525 / 83 points (.552 remaining schedule strength)

In order to be a playoff team you need to finish at the front of this pack - in order to get a top 10 pick you likely need to finish at the back of this pack of 6 teams.

Based on the season performance as a whole, and the last 20 games, the Flames are in a pretty good spot.

[EVERLAST]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

There's no way the Flames will be bad enough.

They have to go for playoffs, and the trades for Farabee & Frost make me believe Conny also sees this. The Caps win was huge.

Everyone telling them theyre no good has to inspire them.

Coleman, Kadri, lomberg are our cup experienced guys leading . Our leaders keep leading like they are and when knows what happens?

All i know is if we go on a heater here i hope we stay healthier than when we were without Bahl and Zary . Those 2 on the roster make this a team.

Get Frost and Bee going the way Conroy wanted and who knows

Solo coming in and other guys elevating at the right time means good things can happen.

Who knows how high above their heads they can play . Ill be cheering for not tanking.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Money Puck shows 46.9% chance of making the playoffs.

But those models are questionable IMO. The actual betting odds are more interesting IMO, I don't know what those are saying.

Bet365

Canucks - -185 yes / +150 no
Flames - +200 yes / -250 no

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by shutout

Bet365

Canucks - -185 yes / +150 no
Flames - +200 yes / -250 no

Interesting, the "smarts" still don't believe in the Flames.

At this point, I'd happily jump in at +200.

[Sainters7]

I just hope to high Holly that one of the 2 things happens. Losing our 1st round pick and also missing the playoffs will be a massive kick to the cojones.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think Vancouver is likely done. Injuries and the other issues they have. They would need some dramatic turnaround from Pettersson which doesn't seem like it will come.

Utah will jump them.

[Goriders]

I think the canucks are going to be sellers at the deadline and they will crater the last 20 games or so.

[Robbob]

I wouldn't count our Utah and St. Louis. I know we have 2 game and a few points on them. With 23 games remaining for them, that would not be an impossible task. Especially with the road trip we are on now. I am sure they are expecting the Flames to stall a bit.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I think the canucks are going to be sellers at the deadline and they will crater the last 20 games or so.

I expect they will move Boeser at the deadline and everyone will assume they're done.

Then, with no pressure on them, they'll go on a heater and finish one point ahead of us, making our pick the #15 pick, causing the entire Flames' fan base to melt down.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I expect they will move Boeser at the deadline and everyone will assume they're done.

Then, with no pressure on them, they'll go on a heater and finish one point ahead of us, making our pick the #15 pick, causing the entire Flames' fan base to melt down.

So it shall be written. So it shall be done.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I expect they will move Boeser at the deadline and everyone will assume they're done.

Then, with no pressure on them, they'll go on a heater and finish one point ahead of us, making our pick the #15 pick, causing the entire Flames' fan base to melt down.

That could definitely happen. Because it happens every year.

But in my mind if the Flames make the playoffs I think they will win the cup. Logic being they always lose to the bottom feeders and beat the top tier teams. The bottom feeders will be gone in playoffs.

[FranksandBean]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I expect they will move Boeser at the deadline and everyone will assume they're done.

Then, with no pressure on them, they'll go on a heater and finish one point ahead of us, making our pick the #15 pick, causing the entire Flames' fan base to melt down.

Then we go ahead and win the lottery so we don’t loose the pick thus making Conroy look like a genius.

Did I do that right…

[Groot]

Kadri weighs in on the topic...

https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade...bruary-27-2025

"Hey listen, I know there's some people probably out there that want to lose and get a high (NHL Draft) pick,” Kadri told Sportsnet on Wednesday. “But if you're truly a guy that wants to lose, then I'll show you a loser. I wouldn't want to be around those kinds of people.

“There's also a bunch of people that believe in us, and we respect that.”

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

I just hope to high Holly that one of the 2 things happens. Losing our 1st round pick and also missing the playoffs will be a massive kick to the cojones.

They have 3 first and are losing 1...the optics may look bad but it will be moving a few spots the way NJ looks

[Funkhouser]

The Flames got 2 pts against SJ that they didn't deserve, and surprisingly won in WSH.

In an alternate scenario where the Flames only got 1 pt the last 2 games, we would presently be in 21st, 2 points away from a top 10 pick.

Personally, I still see a top 10 pick being possible if we hit a 3-4 game skid.
I won't cheer for it, but if it happens, I am fine with it.

[dissentowner]

I love the resilience of this team though. We're gonna do what they say can't be done. We've got a long way to go and a short time to get there.