Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[GomerPile]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

In this #### show? If anyone tells you they know what to do, they do not. You can not predict chaos. You can get lucky and guess correctly, but I don't think you can predict the right move in this environment with any confidence.

Haha, this is the truth

[Table 5]

Definitely hard to predict the future with any sort of conviction. The only thing I'm remotely convinced of, is that if we're all transitioning to AI-everything and building all these data centres...then surely there will be a massive need for energy to power all that demand because the status-quo won't be able to sustain the load. So I'm just slowly and steadily accumulating the companies, utilities, and commodities (nat-gas mid-term and nuclear long-term) engaged in powering that need. I'm a fan of nuclear for other reasons in the long-term, so maybe I'm just reinforcing my biases.

Also starting a small position in China. They've been really beaten down the last couple years, but have been doing better than the SP500 over a decent stretch now.

[TorqueDog]

I moved a small amount of my holdings into an ETF that pays ~14% annually (monthly dividend). Historically it has been flat and boring no matter what was going on, so I’m happy not to have to fret about directionality too much.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

I moved a small amount of my holdings into an ETF that pays ~14% annually (monthly dividend). Historically it has been flat and boring no matter what was going on, so I’m happy not to have to fret about directionality too much.

Go on…

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Go on…

Likely a covered call ETF or a split corporation. Both have eye-popping yields, but still have significant downside risk in a real downturn while simultaneously capping the upside. Obviously nothing that's a publicly traded equity can sustain a 14% yield on its own regardless of market conditions.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

I moved a small amount of my holdings into an ETF that pays ~14% annually (monthly dividend). Historically it has been flat and boring no matter what was going on, so I’m happy not to have to fret about directionality too much.

if only it was this easy

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Likely a covered call ETF or a split corporation. Both have eye-popping yields, but still have significant downside risk in a real downturn while simultaneously capping the upside. Obviously nothing that's a publicly traded equity can sustain a 14% yield on its own regardless of market conditions.

Yeah, covered call ETF. Since about mid-2022 ENCC has traded in a range between $10.10 lows and $12.80 highs, so hitting it at $11 a share with a very small portion of my portfolio is acceptable risk to me. My other stuff is MSFT shares through work and some Vanguard stuff from Canadian Couch Potato.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Yeah, covered call ETF. Since about mid-2022 ENCC has traded in a range between $10.10 lows and $12.80 highs, so hitting it at $11 a share with a very small portion of my portfolio is acceptable risk to me. My other stuff is MSFT shares through work and some Vanguard stuff from Canadian Couch Potato.

Yeah, I mean there's a place for those things and it's obviously up to each investor what they want to do. But in the interest of accuracy, I don't think it's correct to characterize it as something you can just buy, collect the premium, and not worry about the direction of the market. There's a reason why Global X lists it as a high risk ETF while their index funds are medium risk.

The premiums from selling calls can help in a sideways market, but in the long run, those things usually perform poorly and they really don't have the downside protection that you'd think. I mean, look at ENCC's historical chart; from its inception in 2011 to the end of 2019 (so excluding COVID), its value dropped by about 85%. And even after accounting for the distributions, $10K invested at the start was only worth about $3.5K by the end of 2019. Whereas $10K invested in a CAD S&P 500 ETF in 2011 would've been worth about $30K by 2019.

They can be OK if you really need monthly distributions, but they're not really reliable because they rely on the underlying value of the holdings to generate those distributions. If the stocks they're holding drop, then they can't get the same premium by selling calls, so they have to cut their distributions.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Yeah, covered call ETF. Since about mid-2022 ENCC has traded in a range between $10.10 lows and $12.80 highs, so hitting it at $11 a share with a very small portion of my portfolio is acceptable risk to me. My other stuff is MSFT shares through work and some Vanguard stuff from Canadian Couch Potato.

That's so boring. Try something like QDTE. You need to get that heart going.

But wait, what you really want to do is have some paddles handy: TSLY

[Bigtime]

TQQQ and UPRO if you really want to feel alive.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Yeah, I mean there's a place for those things and it's obviously up to each investor what they want to do. But in the interest of accuracy, I don't think it's correct to characterize it as something you can just buy, collect the premium, and not worry about the direction of the market. There's a reason why Global X lists it as a high risk ETF while their index funds are medium risk.

The premiums from selling calls can help in a sideways market, but in the long run, those things usually perform poorly and they really don't have the downside protection that you'd think. I mean, look at ENCC's historical chart; from its inception in 2011 to the end of 2019 (so excluding COVID), its value dropped by about 85%. And even after accounting for the distributions, $10K invested at the start was only worth about $3.5K by the end of 2019. Whereas $10K invested in a CAD S&P 500 ETF in 2011 would've been worth about $30K by 2019.

To be clear, I’m saying that’s how *I* feel about it, not characterizing the nature of the investment itself. It’s such a small amount invested that I don’t really care. Like, it’s $5,000, if the thing keeps doing what it has done for the last few years, it should generate ~$700 in dividends which will easily cover the small price fluctuations it has seen (and still $200 more than if it drops to its lowest traded value in that time). If it drops below support levels, then I’ll consider changing it up. It certainly isn’t a long-term play, definitely wouldn’t tell someone to invest their retirement in it. 90-10… 90% in safe stuff, 10% max for risky stuff and bullsh-t meme stocks.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

TQQQ and UPRO if you really want to feel alive.

Or put it all in Microstrategy which is effectively a 5x Bitcoin ETF

[puckedoff]

Best to just have an overallocation to oil and gas stocks, its the Albertan way. They are currently beat up due to tarriff uncertainty, so as good a time as ever to backup the truck.

[Leondros]

Anyone go to the CFA dinner last night? Man was Danielle Booth bearish. Made me want to pull all my money out of the markets this morning. She's likely correct, but its going to be a matter of when.

Sparks notes is that the US financial markets are not looking rosey at all. A lot of the key metrics they are using are fundamentally flawed and/or are lagging indicators at best. She showed some startling charts on conventional banks backing unregulated banks and it all seems like a pretty huge house of cards (think 2008).

Anyways, I calculated my S&P500 exposure across the portfolio this morning and am laying on SPY puts as a hedge to at least lock in some of these returns over the past 2 years.

While not the full talk or data she hits some of her speaking points on this youtube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHiSuZzyLK4

[Slava]

I skipped it purposefully because she was the speaker, so it’s hard to take her bearish call to heart for me.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Or put it all in Microstrategy which is effectively a 5x Bitcoin ETF

Or MSTY which is a MicroStrategy Option Income ETF.

It's all insane, but that's why you don't gamble with the money you can't afford to lose.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Or put it all in Microstrategy which is effectively a 5x Bitcoin ETF

It's more like paying 4x for a 2x Bitcoin etf.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Anyone go to the CFA dinner last night? Man was Danielle Booth bearish. Made me want to pull all my money out of the markets this morning. She's likely correct, but its going to be a matter of when.

Sparks notes is that the US financial markets are not looking rosey at all. A lot of the key metrics they are using are fundamentally flawed and/or are lagging indicators at best. She showed some startling charts on conventional banks backing unregulated banks and it all seems like a pretty huge house of cards (think 2008).

Anyways, I calculated my S&P500 exposure across the portfolio this morning and am laying on SPY puts as a hedge to at least lock in some of these returns over the past 2 years.

While not the full talk or data she hits some of her speaking points on this youtube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHiSuZzyLK4

A few things:

It's all the MAG 7's fault.

MAGS etf - it's at around 41 for P/E.

XMAG etf - around 25.

grok.

XMAG is actually outperforming MAGS YTD haha.

But of course the thing is if there's a downturn in the mag 7, it's going to affect all stocks.

If you're in registered accounts maybe take a look at buffer ETFs like the ones offered by BMO if you think the sky is falling.

But there's been plenty of times where the stock market looks overvalued... and it does fine.

You should be more concerned if Ms. Apocalypse thinks everything is rosy.

[bluejays]

Interesting rout on the tech stocks today. While I’ve stayed away from individual stocks the past little while, today’s pullback on NVDA was a little overdone. Companies can’t trust China, and while the principle is perhaps this can be done without specialty chips, I think what I’m reading is the demand is definitely there for them. Anyway, I bought in on this pullback. Wish I had more USD frankly.

[Shazam]

China is like the fisherman that always says he caught the fish that was this big.

Let's see if other places can replicate their numbers.

Also DS's model is only really better at math and computing.

https://www.seangoedecke.com/deepseek-r1

In regards to NVDA, the stock is expensive so any bad news is going to kill it.