Dustin Wolf discussion thread

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

To me the key is term. Given that the Flames will have no cap issues for at least 4 years even if they overpay I would rather have him (and Zary, Coronato, Pellletier) for as long as possible. Given the skyrocketing cap those deals will likely all be good deals, even if they look like overpays on day one.

He has no leg to stand on to demand Oettinger or Swayman money (~$8M) at this point. It would just come down to whether or not his camp wants to wait 2-3 years to try to push his AAV to the limit or lock in now knowing that goalie performance can swing wildly from year to year.

If I'm Conroy I would move mountains to try and get it done simply so that you don't have to run any risk of losing the player or having to pay a premium to keep him. Wolf could quite easily end up being the most important player on this club as early as next year when the team is starting to be more competitive.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I understand inflation, but...

6yrs ago, Binnington signed 2yrs @ 4.4M after he won the cup.

4yrs ago, Sorokin signed 3yrs @ 4.0M after a .920sv% rookie season (regular season + playoffs combined).

3yrs ago, Oettinger signed for 3yrs @ 4.0M. This after a 30-15-1 regular season, .914sv%, 2.53gaa, and a .954sv% in 7 playoff games versus the Flames.



Wolf's impressive '24/25 season so far:
16-7-2
.917sv%
2.50gaa

6yrs @ 5M is not close?

no. not close at all.
you'll notice your comparison players signed for 2, 3, and 3 years. not 6.
you want 6 years, you 're going to have to go up a lot more. Especially as Wolf and his team know his value.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I understand inflation, but...

6yrs ago, Binnington signed 2yrs @ 4.4M after he won the cup.

4yrs ago, Sorokin signed 3yrs @ 4.0M after a .920sv% rookie season (regular season + playoffs combined).

3yrs ago, Oettinger signed for 3yrs @ 4.0M. This after a 30-15-1 regular season, .914sv%, 2.53gaa, and a .954sv% in 7 playoff games versus the Flames.



Wolf's impressive '24/25 season so far:
16-7-2
.917sv%
2.50gaa

6yrs @ 5M is not close?

No, not close. For 3 years, perhaps. But you won't get the extra 3 years at the same price.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

no. not close at all.
you'll notice your comparison players signed for 2, 3, and 3 years. not 6.
you want 6 years, you 're going to have to go up a lot more. Especially as Wolf and his team know his value.

Not only that, but the goalie market is shifting the last couple years. Teams/agents/goalies are collectively deciding that the position will now be paid just like star players.

Going forward a top tier goalie is going to start with an 8 with the superstar ones getting 11+. Wolf is looking like he'll be top tier minimum, and a good chance he'll be a super star, likely pushing him to 11+ on an 8 year deal.

[jayswin]

If there was any chance wolf would go 7 or 8 years at anywhere in the 7's or 8's I'd happily take it. You need to take some risks on young players as is the way most teams are headed and seeing Wolf so far I'd happily take an $8.5AAV or whatever it is risk on him.

Give him a 2-3 year deal and with the cap going up and if he continues to he a superstar level goalie you could easily end up with a $13-14mil AAV, 8 year deal when we're ready to contend, imo.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Not only that, but the goalie market is shifting the last couple years. Teams/agents/goalies are collectively deciding that the position will now be paid just like star players.

Going forward a top tier goalie is going to start with an 8 with the superstar ones getting 11+. Wolf is looking like he'll be top tier minimum, and a good chance he'll be a super star, likely pushing him to 11+ on an 8 year deal.

Until another contract ages like Bobrovsky’s and the market pulls back.

The fundamentals for why goalies aren’t paid a premium haven’t changed: the performance of even the best goalies typically varies substantially over any 4-year period, and the difference between a good and a great goalie isn’t big enough to warrant the difference in cap.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Good write up for sure Cheese. It's a little painful reading about how badly the Flames have whiffed on goaltenders the last two decades but I imagine a lot of teams have similar records trying to find a franchise goaltender. Wolf has definitely exceeded expectations and now it's a matter of building a better team around him in the coming seasons.

Wolf is definitely looking like the real deal. It's so hard getting a very good to elite level goalie in the organization, let alone one that's drafted and developed yourself. And though there are varying opinions on Vladar, I'd echo goaltending guru, Kevin Woodley, who said the other day that Jordan Sigalet and his team have done a fantastic job with all their goalies, including Vladar, and there's a reason why he's so highly thought of in that circle. The fire Sigalet group has certainly been quiet for a while now.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Until another contract ages like Bobrovsky’s and the market pulls back.

The fundamentals for why goalies aren’t paid a premium haven’t changed: the performance of even the best goalies typically varies substantially over any 4-year period, and the difference between a good and a great goalie isn’t big enough to warrant the difference in cap.

Typically, yeah, but GMs and agents tend to follow today's trend, which is to lock up and pay the star goalie. Hellybuck, Saros, Sorokin, Shesterkin--all consistently top end goalies--all got paid on long term deals.

Calgary's situation, however, is more like the second contract of those four goalies, as well as a guy like Oettinger, where the goalie hasn't had a long enough record to command a long term deal with a big salary.

It'll likely be a 3-5 year deal, starting with a $4 or $5, unless Wolf and the Flames both feel comfortable locking him up for 8, and then the deal probably starts with a high 6 or 7. I can't see the Flames going over $8m a year for 8 years this offseason for Wolf, without a longer track record, even with the cap going up.

If I was running the Flames, I'd probably be willing to take that risk and go as high as 8m, as I really believe in this guy, but it's not my cash on the line if Wolf doesn't pan out.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

Typically, yeah, but GMs and agents tend to follow today's trend, which is to lock up and pay the star goalie. Hellybuck, Saros, Sorokin, Shesterkin--all consistently top end goalies--all got paid on long term deals.

Calgary's situation, however, is more like the second contract of those four goalies, as well as a guy like Oettinger, where the goalie hasn't had a long enough record to command a long term deal with a big salary.

It'll likely be a 3-5 year deal, starting with a $4 or $5, unless Wolf and the Flames both feel comfortable locking him up for 8, and then the deal probably starts with a high 6 or 7. I can't see the Flames going over $8m a year for 8 years this offseason for Wolf, without a longer track record, even with the cap going up.

If I was running the Flames, I'd probably be willing to take that risk and go as high as 8m, as I really believe in this guy, but it's not my cash on the line if Wolf doesn't pan out.

God, I hope we don't go 3 - 5 years, what a Flames thing to do. Although I guess it could be out of conroys hands if wolf isn't interested lomg term. But a decision to effectively bridge what is looking like a super star goalie coming from the organization's side would be very disappointing.

[jayswin]

When would Wolf be become a UFA vs RFA? Lock up your stars early with some risk involved. That's how you have to do it, especially in a market like Calgary where star players tend to leave for other markets if they get withing a year of free agency.

I would soooo happily have wolf at $8.5mil for 8 years.

[activeStick]

Yeah, that will be key. I'm a big supporter of giving money and term to the kids the Flames believe will be at that elite level, which to me, Wolf is. Give him the 8 years at something like 6-8. Do not let what happened with Chucky happen again and assume he'll want to stay in Calgary. Way too risky.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by jayswin

When would Wolf be become a UFA vs RFA? Lock up your stars early with some risk involved. That's how you have to do it, especially in a market like Calgary where star players tend to leave for other markets if they get withing a year of free agency.

He turns 24 in April and is signed for 1 more season beyond this one, so he'll be 25 when his next contract starts.

A 1 year contract would leave him as an RFA at the end of it. Anything longer than that will take him to UFA status when it expires. A maximum contract would take him to UFA at 33.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by getbak

He turns 24 in April and is signed for 1 more season beyond this one, so he'll be 25 when his next contract starts.

A 1 year contract would leave him as an RFA at the end of it. Anything longer than that will take him to UFA status when it expires. A maximum contract would take him to UFA at 33.

So yeah basically whatever next deal we give him walks him to free agency, so it's imperative to convince him to sign lomg term.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Sign that man to max term. 25-33 will take him through his prime, or at least most of the "goalie" prime.

[The Yen Man]

If Conroy can get Wolf to an 8x8, I say you do it. Sure, it's still a bit of risk because he's really only gotten one season so far, but those are the types of risks Flames need to take with young players who have star potential. We lost Chucky because Tre decided to try to play hardball. We could have had him through his prime years.

I'm also comfortingly confident in Wolf. Guy has never faltered in any level he's been in, even though he's been told time and time again he's too small. He's got an "eff you, I'll show you how good I can be" vibe to him, which I absolutely love.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

If Conroy can get Wolf to an 8x8, I say you do it. Sure, it's a risk, but those are the types of risks Flames need to take with young players who have star potential. We lost Chucky because Tre decided to try to play hardball. We could have had him through his prime years.

Plus, 8 is the new 5-6M.

Note - I think Chucky would have signed 5 years max. He would not have signed for 8.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Plus, 8 is the new 5-6M.

Note - I think Chucky would have signed 5 years max. He would not have signed for 8.

I disagree. I think he would have signed an 8 year $8M deal, bringing him to UFA at 29, which would have given him an opportunity to sign another max deal at whatever salary cap going rate it would be in two years. I think he left millions on the table because he didn't get that 8 year deal.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I disagree. I think he would have signed an 8 year $8M deal, bringing him to UFA at 29, which would have given him an opportunity to sign another max deal at whatever salary cap going rate it would be in two years. I think he left millions on the table because he didn't get that 8 year deal.

What makes you think he wanted to sign that long here? When he said (afterwards) he would have signed long term, the first number he mentioned was "5". He would have been UFA at 26.

I also think he got the max of what he was going to get as - a deal that saw him guaranteed $9M in his last year, which is what he probably wanted for his "long term" deal.

[The Yen Man]

I mean, at the end of the day, your guess is as good as mine. Only Chucky and his agent knows what he was willing to sign. I'm just saying, from a pure economic and maximizing earnings standpoint, 8 years makes the most sense for a lot of star players coming out of their first ELC as it takes him to that age point where they are still in their prime years, but can market themselves for another 8 year massive contract.

To bring this back to Wolf, for him, it might be a bit different in that goalies are such a crapshoot, and lots of goalies actually become BETTER after 30 for some reason. So for him, it still might make sense to do 8 years, and see where his game's at when he's 31. It shields him in case his game, for whatever reason, starts sucking after a couple years. Plus, unlike star players, it's harder for goalies to squeeze more than $8M a year from a GM.

[Bonded]

I still think Tkachuk would have stayed if Gaudreau stayed. That was the real turning point IMO.