2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[traptor]

You don't need top picks to win a cup.

But

You need top players (a couple of them atleast) to win a cup, and the biggest chance of landing these are the top of the draft. This doesn't mean you can't get them elsewhere, just the odds are increased.

A team with a core of kucherov, aho, josi and shesterki could definitely win a cup but it's damn hard to draft that well without top picks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by traptor

You don't need top picks to win a cup.

But

You need top players (a couple of them atleast) to win a cup, and the biggest chance of landing these are the top of the draft. This doesn't mean you can't get them elsewhere, just the odds are increased.

A team with a core of kucherov, aho, josi and shesterki could definitely win a cup.

It's damn hard to draft, near impossible to draft that well with depth picks alone.

I don't think anyone is arguing that either.

But a full tank may not be the answer either, when you take into account luck (Red Wings model of doing poorly but having no lottery luck), and then intangibles like we see in Buffalo where you create this rot that is hard to escape.

The answer pretty much has to be in the middle somewhere.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Run the contrary, how many teams won without multiple top 5 picks?

One third of them.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think anyone is arguing that either.

But a full tank may not be the answer either, when you take into account luck (Red Wings model of doing poorly but having no lottery luck), and then intangibles like we see in Buffalo where you create this rot that is hard to escape.

The answer pretty much has to be in the middle somewhere.

Yeah I agree. Some markets could handle it better then others(e.g. attractiveness too UFAs). I don't necessarily think the flames are in that group, although Conroys set a good culture and the new arena might help.

Its definitely a tight rope. I do hope the flames can acquire a bottom 5 pick or two over the next couple years without burning it down.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think anyone is arguing that either.

But a full tank may not be the answer either, when you take into account luck (Red Wings model of doing poorly but having no lottery luck), and then intangibles like we see in Buffalo where you create this rot that is hard to escape.

The answer pretty much has to be in the middle somewhere.

Not to mention that the team still needs to sell tickets and generate revenue along the way, and if you are among the really bad teams in the league that is difficult to do.

[TheIronMaiden]

While we are throwing random stats to suggest correlation or lack of correlation since 1980 only 10 first over all picks have won a stately cup.

[1qqaaz]

Problem with the Redwings was that Raymond (4th OA) was their only top 5 pick (and I'm aware that the Redwings did finish at the bottom of the standings one year).
Other than that, the Redwings haven't drafted in the top 5 since 1990. They haven't picked top 3 since 1986, which I think is the longest after the Flames.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just find this so lazy.

There are more successful franchises for sure.

But they haven't been in the mushy middle for 30 years so why keep walking that out?

They had two 100+ seasons in 5 years before starting a rebuild.

Get current!

How current you want to get? I took your advice and crunched average points per season over the last 30 (normalized.) what would you believe the flames average is?

It's ~92 points, so that would be out of the playoffs on the 96 point line.

We are extremely consistent in being in the mush.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Run the contrary, how many teams won without multiple top 5 picks?

Both sides are baked into what I ran. Can you pose a relevant and calculable question?

But here's a crazy stat: there are 6 teams that have had only 1 or 0 top 5 picks, and 2 of them (33%) have won a cup. And in total, only 13 teams have a cup in this timeframe. That means that 11 of the 26 with multiple picks have won a cup (42%).

[TheScorpion]

With the way the Flames have been playing of late, this entire debate is going to end up being pointless. They're gonna finish bottom 5-10 without breaking a sweat.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

While we are throwing random stats to suggest correlation or lack of correlation since 1980 only 10 first over all picks have won a stately cup.

Really?! I find that astounding.

In a more cap-centric new NHL: If I count from 2003-2014 I get 8: Fleury(PIT), Crosby(PIT), Ovechkin(WSH), E. Johnson(COL), Kane(CHI), Stamkos(TBL), MacKinnon(COL), Ekblad(FLA).

The 4 that didn't win it in that time span(hehe, stupid oilers): Tavares, Hall, RNH, Yakupov.

One could argue that it's too soon to judge the 2015-2024 picks.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

How current you want to get? I took your advice and crunched average points per season over the last 30 (normalized.) what would you believe the flames average is?

It's ~92 points, so that would be out of the playoffs on the 96 point line.

We are extremely consistent in being in the mush.

Most teams' average would be very close to 92 points because, you know, 92 points is about the average total each year, and if you take each team's average, it will probably be close to the overall average. SHOCKING!

But let's take a look at the numbers...

The Flames have been in Calgary for 43 seasons, in that time, they have finished between 13th and 19th (inclusive), 12 times. Big whoop. Meanwhile, they have finished top 8 13 times, and bottom 8 11 times.

And the only time they had any string of mushy middle seasons was 06/07 through 11/12 where they had 5 of them in 6 years. Besides that string, they have only had 7 other mushy middle seasons in their history.

[Enoch Root]

Trying to decide what the mushy middle is, is a challenge, and people will have different definitions of course.

Here's another one: top 1/3, middle 1/3, bottom 1/3:

Top: 14
Middle: 18
Bottom: 11

First, I don't find that all that bad, and second, I would think most teams would have the majority of their seasons in the middle third, because that is how it goes.

I just don't see any evidence that the Flames have been mired in the middle, as some people like to believe (and endlessly tout)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

With the way the Flames have been playing of late, this entire debate is going to end up being pointless. They're gonna finish bottom 5-10 without breaking a sweat.

Bottom 10 still feels fairly likely. Bottom 5 seems extremely unlikely.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

While we are throwing random stats to suggest correlation or lack of correlation since 1980 only 10 first over all picks have won a stately cup.

False:

Lemieux
Joe Murphy
Modano
Lecavalier
Fleury
Ovechkin
Crosby
Johnson
Kane
Stamkos
Mackinnon
Ekblad

12 and the last 5 or 6 shouldnt count yet!

[Jason14h]

The lack of playoffs success detracts from the good regular seasons and feel more “mushy middle “ then regular season points dictated

To me mushy middle is actually 10-20th (so first round exits include ) since that’s the middle ground of a teams success

Now does a division winner and a just made playoff first round exit hold equal weight on “success” - that would depend on the person you ask , and they factors (you could argue an up and coming team losing round 1 is more successful then a older established division winner losing round 1)

Team building lifecycle also plays in - are you on the upswing or plateaud in the “middle”

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Bottom 10 still feels fairly likely. Bottom 5 seems extremely unlikely.

I can't see Nashville being this bad over a full season. Only teams I think are definitively worse are CHI, SJ, and ANA. They've built up a small cushion, but I really don't think CGY wins much at all from here on out.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

False:

Lemieux
Joe Murphy
Modano
Lecavalier
Fleury
Ovechkin
Crosby
Johnson
Kane
Stamkos
Mackinnon
Ekblad

12 and the last 5 or 6 shouldnt count yet!

Lots of those players won multiple cups too.

[Jason14h]

And Wayne would have gone 1st overall

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

False:

Lemieux
Joe Murphy
Modano
Lecavalier
Fleury
Ovechkin
Crosby
Johnson
Kane
Stamkos
Mackinnon
Ekblad

12 and the last 5 or 6 shouldnt count yet!

even with those provisos it is interesting (and I agree it doesn't argue against the need to tank/and or pick high) the ratio is possibly lower than someone might guess (although the Oilers skew the data )