Are the Flames actually a playoff team?

[Yanda]

Flames are winning some key games, but if we keep letting the games goto Overtime and the shootout our luck is going to run out.

2nd game in arrow where we let the other team back in it. Rangers were down and out and tied it up, same with the Wild. Glad were coming up with the victories but that is not how a playoff team performs.

Can only get away with letting the opponent back in the game so many times before it burns you and I think this is lost in the hype of the home winning streak

[Bingo]

From my Game Takes yesterday ...

The Flames have some interesting metrics that suggest coaching and system are playing a huge role too.

The Flames give up the 9th most shots per 60 minutes in the league, so that suggests goaltending is leading the way. Digging a little deeper though and you see the quality is being snuffed out pretty effectively. The Flames have the 11th best HD/60 against in terms of shots.

They give up the 5th most medium danger level shots, and are 14th in low danger.

Less high danger is giving the two goaltenders a better chance to make the save.

Digging into goalie performance by shot type and you see some middling numbers, to be honest.

HDSV% .821 (15the best)
MDSV% .912 (4th best)
LDSV% .961 (12th)

Not just goaltending.

Ryan Huska deserves a lot of credit too.

Had me thinking watching the game that it would be a shame if he was let go (they all get let go) when this team was ready to compete. Flames may have a gem in Huska.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Flames are winning some key games, but if we keep letting the games goto Overtime and the shootout our luck is going to run out.

2nd game in arrow where we let the other team back in it. Rangers were down and out and tied it up, same with the Wild. Glad were coming up with the victories but that is not how a playoff team performs.

Can only get away with letting the opponent back in the game so many times before it burns you and I think this is lost in the hype of the home winning streak

I think the Flames were playing strongly right up until a soft penalty call gave the Wild life. I don't think that's letting the other team into the game.

[Macindoc]

Whether the Flames make the playoffs depends on how much of the present Conroy is prepared to sacrifice for the future. As it stands today, they are a playoff team with a slightly above average goal differential and a significantly above average points percentage. The points they have already gained won't go away. With an above average goal differential, it is unlikely that any regression will be enough to overcome the number of points they have accumulated so far in order to cause them to miss the playoffs. While it is true that Wolf's SV% will probably drop off a bit, it is likely that players who are having at or near worst career SH% will improve a similar amount. Zary is likely to have more of his high-danger chances to start going in. To miss the playoffs at this point, the Flames would have to be a significantly worse than average points percentage team for the remainder of the season. Trading away two or more of Andersson, Coleman, Backlund, or possibly Vladar might be able to accomplish that, if it were done significantly before the TDL. Nobody else of consequence is likely to be traded (Kuzmenko is certainly a trade candidate, but his loss at this point would have a negligible effect on the team's performance). At the TDL, they would probably have to trade away three or all four of them.

Of course, a major injury to one or more of their top players could have a similar effect.

Edit: the Flames would have to be passed by all of the Kings, Avs, No Goods, and Canucks in order to miss the playoffs. This may prove to be a difficult task unless they are actively trying.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

I wasn't expecting them to beat the wild with Vladar on a matinee so even though it was a bit of a Picasso at the end there ill gladly take the W.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Flames are winning some key games, but if we keep letting the games goto Overtime and the shootout our luck is going to run out.

2nd game in arrow where we let the other team back in it. Rangers were down and out and tied it up, same with the Wild. Glad were coming up with the victories but that is not how a playoff team performs.

Can only get away with letting the opponent back in the game so many times before it burns you and I think this is lost in the hype of the home winning streak

Nhl is strange league one year good at shootout next year not. Might be due. Haven't been good for while. Fingers crossed. Lucky to get playoffs imo is good for now. Exciting to watch. It's for fun right?

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Flames are winning some key games, but if we keep letting the games goto Overtime and the shootout our luck is going to run out.

2nd game in arrow where we let the other team back in it. Rangers were down and out and tied it up, same with the Wild. Glad were coming up with the victories but that is not how a playoff team performs.

Can only get away with letting the opponent back in the game so many times before it burns you and I think this is lost in the hype of the home winning streak

Lol going to ot and shootouts means they're picking up points though. With the W/L cushion they've built, they can happily get by with OT games.

They have hardly had a lead to give away, yesterday was unusual for these flames and they probably deserved a regulation result. So if bad luck = a shootout win, then that isn't much of a hindrance.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Bingo

From my Game Takes yesterday ...



Not just goaltending.

Ryan Huska deserves a lot of credit too.

Had me thinking watching the game that it would be a shame if he was let go (they all get let go) when this team was ready to compete. Flames may have a gem in Huska.

Huska said that they were making some tweaks to the system to help prevent more of the HD chances. Looks like the changes are working over the first quarter of the season. I would say in my viewings that matches the eye test. The flames seem hard to score upon this year.

We are also seeing some modifications to deficient areas as well, the power play being the most notable.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I also think we tend to use it wrong in some scenarios. Analytics supporters (myself included) have always gravitated towards using 5v5 numbers for analytics.

And that 100% is the right decision when comparing players - because for an individual player their PP/PK/5v5 ice time mix and usage can greatly skew their xGF. You can't compare all situations for a forward that plays lots of PP and no PK, to a player that plays lots of PK and no PP.

But when looking at team metrics and team results we really should be looking at All Situation metrics. Special teams are too big a part of the game to just ignore them when assessing team effectiveness and you're excluding over 20% of the ice time data we have if you look only at 5v5.

I’m very much in favour of more stats as they provide more information, but this stat line is offered commonly now as proving a team or player is deserving to win or not. As I’ve learned more about the limitations of the statistic, I think that it is more of a longer term trend stat - like a half season or more - as opposed to any individual game or series of games. That is useful but it shouldn’t be overstated.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Are those statistical measures of 'good' teams. Special teams and face offs?

Teams that get great goaltending win. There is no propped up. If they remain a top save% team they will make playoffs.

That's exactly what I said lol.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Bonded

The hardest thing to find a #1C. He’d be doing a disservice to the fans if he pulls another Hamonic trade and trying to compete now. Hopefully he is more patient than spending assets on a team whose leading scorer is a defensemen at 126th overall in the NHL.
Enjoy the run and keep the plan the same as it was going into the season.

Tries to compete now? They are competing now. They are ahead of 26 teams.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Whether the Flames make the playoffs depends on how much of the present Conroy is prepared to sacrifice for the future.

Edit: the Flames would have to be passed by all of the Kings, Avs, No Goods, and Canucks in order to miss the playoffs. This may prove to be a difficult task unless they are actively trying.

yeah that is the crux of it to me- compared to just- lets pick EDM- if I argue the Oilers are more likely to make the playoffs its mostly because that team has no choice given their window and composition to actively manage towards that direction, and the Flames- even if the last 20 games have changes things a bit- are really or should really be looking in a completely different direction- this impacts as you point out the response to injury or injuries etc etc

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I’m very much in favour of more stats as they provide more information, but this stat line is offered commonly now as proving a team or player is deserving to win or not. As I’ve learned more about the limitations of the statistic, I think that it is more of a longer term trend stat - like a half season or more - as opposed to any individual game or series of games. That is useful but it shouldn’t be overstated.

I think people over think it.

If team x has more expected goals using the same model as team y it's a good thing,

It's a good thing for a period.
It's a good thing for a game.
It's a good thing for a half season.

More of what a model says is dangerous than the opposition will give you a good chance to win more games than you lose.

If you're a team with a lack of finish you may not be able to score enough to close that gap, but it's still better to carry the play than to get out played and have a lack of skill.

The stat will improve, but looking for reasons why the one we have doesn't work is missing the point.

[activeStick]

I think it's a coin toss right now whether or not the Flames make the playoffs. Goaltending is going to be the biggest factor and I feel that a drop in play from either guy would see the Flames sink quickly. My assumption here is that both guys are benefitting from not having to play for too many consecutive games and doing so would see their level of play drop. The D has been good enough and I actually don't see this getting worse. I have VGK, DAL, COL, WPG, MIN as teams definitely ahead of the Flames. LAK, EDM and VAN are their competitors for 1 of the last 3 spots. VAN is better if they can get their MVP Demko back at the quality he's been known for. Can't get a read on LAK or EDM.

A perfect deal for the Flames would be if they could be a 3rd party trade broker where they take on a higher salary player who hasn't been producing for that team and has dropped down their lineup, but has produced in the past, that Team A needs to get rid of to take on another high salary player from Team B who they think is a better fit, but don't have the cap space to fit them in. Flames take this player on no problem with their cap space, get assets to take on this player in the form of picks from both Team A and Team B and lose nothing in return since they are eating cap. If the player clicks with the Flames with the scenery change, they address their scoring issues without giving up futures and would be free of that player's cap hit in say 3-5 years.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think people over think it.

If team x has more expected goals using the same model as team y it's a good thing,

It's a good thing for a period.
It's a good thing for a game.
It's a good thing for a half season.

More of what a model says is dangerous than the opposition will give you a good chance to win more games than you lose.

If you're a team with a lack of finish you may not be able to score enough to close that gap, but it's still better to carry the play than to get out played and have a lack of skill.

The stat will improve, but looking for reasons why the one we have doesn't work is missing the point.

I’m not saying to toss the entire enterprise out or that they are irrelevant. It’s information but shouldn’t be used as conclusively as I sometimes see, at least based on my understanding of the stat. For example I have no issue how it’s reported in your game stories as that helps inform longer term trends.

In some respects it’s a better plus-minus for the players. For teams i find it helpful to look at xG% and goal differential. None are absolutes but just useful.

With the player stat, it can be misleading on its own. Two players can have 50% xG% as far as I understand but that means different things. Player one with 1 xGF and 1 xGA based on the xG of the Fenwick shot attempt. So not much happens with that player on the ice and it’s pretty balanced. Player 2 can have 8 xGF and 8xGA suggesting the player is in ice for lots of chances before and against.

Now you’ve argued with a lot more people about these stats than I so maybe I’m misunderstanding. I find with all stats it’s important to understand the limitations of them so we can better communicate the data derived from these stats.

[Reggie Dunlop]

They're not trying hard enough to lose.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Calgary has been flip-flopping coaches for a while between 'head games' and 'tough coaches' to 'player's coaches' and 'pushovers' (arguably, anyway).


You had coaches who had great seasons (Hartley, Sutter, Peters (and then some!)), and you had some players' coaches who had moderate success. Either way, the Flames have been eating through coaches fairly quickly.


I have likened Huska to (hopefully) Calgary's version of Jon Cooper. A smart, professional coach that has the full respect of the players in the room, who doesn't resort to playing head games or is considered harsh, but isn't a pushover either.



Huska's first season already won me over. With all that was happening with the trades and rumours and demands, he had last year's team flirting with the playoffs for a long while. Now this season, it is at another level now that the outside noise is gone, but so is a lot of talent.



Every coach has a shelf life - I am sure Jon Cooper has one, even though we haven't seen it yet. I don't think that Badger Bob Johnson had a shelf-life in Calgary - from what I remember, everyone really loved him and respected him right up to the point that he left. I am hoping that the Flames finally have a coach that that will give them continuity for the better part of a decade at least. Wouldn't that be something?


As for the playoffs, I still don't think so. However, I am hoping for it. I do still think that the lack of high-end talent in the system is going to eventually have this team bottom-out, and if i had a choice, this year would not be the year. The next two drafts after this one have really special players. It is still 2 years out, so who knows what happens, but playoffs this year followed by 2 lottery wins in a row for 26 and 27, followed by entering the Saddledome with one of McKenna or Dupont would be the story I would want to write.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I’m not saying to toss the entire enterprise out or that they are irrelevant. It’s information but shouldn’t be used as conclusively as I sometimes see, at least based on my understanding of the stat. For example I have no issue how it’s reported in your game stories as that helps inform longer term trends.

In some respects it’s a better plus-minus for the players. For teams i find it helpful to look at xG% and goal differential. None are absolutes but just useful.

With the player stat, it can be misleading on its own. Two players can have 50% xG% as far as I understand but that means different things. Player one with 1 xGF and 1 xGA based on the xG of the Fenwick shot attempt. So not much happens with that player on the ice and it’s pretty balanced. Player 2 can have 8 xGF and 8xGA suggesting the player is in ice for lots of chances before and against.

Now you’ve argued with a lot more people about these stats than I so maybe I’m misunderstanding. I find with all stats it’s important to understand the limitations of them so we can better communicate the data derived from these stats.

No that's right.

And a good reason that you can't compare players directly that don't play the same role.

A guy with a great expected split on a fourth line shouldn't be promoted on that basis.

But you can compare that player against fourth line players across the league and a get a pretty good idea of who drives play with limited minutes and who doesn't.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

They're not trying hard enough to lose.

If they were true professionals they would buy into the rebuild too and stop with all of this counter productive winning. How can they not know that they aren’t supposed to be competitive until the 2028/29 season.

Think that’s what the spreadsheet says at least.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Calgary has been flip-flopping coaches for a while between 'head games' and 'tough coaches' to 'player's coaches' and 'pushovers' (arguably, anyway).


You had coaches who had great seasons (Hartley, Sutter, Peters (and then some!)), and you had some players' coaches who had moderate success. Either way, the Flames have been eating through coaches fairly quickly.


I have likened Huska to (hopefully) Calgary's version of Jon Cooper. A smart, professional coach that has the full respect of the players in the room, who doesn't resort to playing head games or is considered harsh, but isn't a pushover either.



Huska's first season already won me over. With all that was happening with the trades and rumours and demands, he had last year's team flirting with the playoffs for a long while. Now this season, it is at another level now that the outside noise is gone, but so is a lot of talent.



Every coach has a shelf life - I am sure Jon Cooper has one, even though we haven't seen it yet. I don't think that Badger Bob Johnson had a shelf-life in Calgary - from what I remember, everyone really loved him and respected him right up to the point that he left. I am hoping that the Flames finally have a coach that that will give them continuity for the better part of a decade at least. Wouldn't that be something?


As for the playoffs, I still don't think so. However, I am hoping for it. I do still think that the lack of high-end talent in the system is going to eventually have this team bottom-out, and if i had a choice, this year would not be the year. The next two drafts after this one have really special players. It is still 2 years out, so who knows what happens, but playoffs this year followed by 2 lottery wins in a row for 26 and 27, followed by entering the Saddledome with one of McKenna or Dupont would be the story I would want to write.

The Flames are a very young team. The players carrying the load right now are the young guys. The higher paid vet forwards have more or less disappeared after the last 5 games or so.

The young kids like Coronato, Zary, Wolf, Bahl, Pachal, Miromanov, Pospisil are only going to get better. They are already outplaying the top teams in the league. I don’t think it’s going to drop off. I think the Flames are going to steadily improve.

I can’t see them not making it taking that into account not to mention their goaltending.