American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851662046766489836

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

People can't keep moving goal posts though. In this thread, the consistent messages have said Trump is terrible for the economy, but then when actual data is presented, it gets sidestepped as it was either Obama's policies that led to it, or that he actually didn't have much to do with the economic performance. At the same time, there are plenty of posters saying that Biden/Harris has been great for the economy and the US has had record growth, but that is directly attributable to Biden/Harris policies and Trump had nothing to do with it. You can't have it both ways.

Everything is just spun to fit the narrative, which is incredibly disingenuous.

Personally, I do think the economy did well under Trump. I also think the economy has done well under Biden/Harris. As you rightfully point out, there's a lot of factors for all of this. I don't feel the need to say everything Trump did is terrible and everything Biden is doing is wonderful.

i have stated on more than one occasion that Biden's spending bills, can be argued, to be a huge boom to the US economy. Interestingly, spending money increases economic output...

There is also an issue with the correlation vs causation of real wages and Trumps own economic policies from 2016-2020.

But more importantly, trump's current economic policies are quite different than what he did in his first term. A full 20% increase in tariffs is largely believed to be an insane measure.

So yes, in the context of my post, if we ignore the economy over the past 4-8-16 years, then we are focusing on current policy proposals. The economy has largely been the same since Obama, outside of COVID and corresponding inflation (global events that affected all nations).

So why is it rational for Bob to make a decision on the past economy under Trump / Biden? arguably they are the same (although, im sure Bob was irrationally favoured the Trump tax cuts on the rich)

So lets look forward at what both candidates are proposing: there is no comparison over which is superior.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Looch City

You know what?

#### Harris. Yeah I said it. She's a miserable candidate that wasn't even democratically chosen.

And before you start with MAGA this and that, #### Trump too. Fascist piece of ####.

The only person that deserves to be President more than ANYTHING...

Is Bernie Sanders.

Ok Rubecube...

[Paulie Walnuts]

Arnold endorses Harris and Walz

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Saw this somewhere lol

Harris: Wow, maybe we can turn this Puerto Rico thing into just enough momentum in Pennsy - - - -

Biden: LEEEEEEEROYYYY JENKINS

haha. They are effing hot garbage and a full basket of deplorables! Go kyithole country!!

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Inflation happened because of COVID and related policy and supply chain issues. The subsequent slowdown of inflation recently is a result of direct action and policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve.

So can we stop blaming Trudeau for the cost of living crisis and inflation or is that different?

We suffered and continue to suffer from the same rhetoric in Canada, but Trump seems to be getting a pass?

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Again, Trump's tax cuts for the rich couldn't be removed because of Manchin/Sinema, so the rich have continued to pay far less in taxes than they did during the Obama years. Then Biden had to make big investments in areas that Trump neglected during his term. Plus, government budgets grew because everything became more expensive in general, and the rise in interest rates made debt servicing more expensive.

One other thing, let us not forget the oil deal that Trump made with the Saudis and the Russians in 2020 to artificially cut supply and raise the price of oil. Was a big contributor to inflation. It was a 2 year deal that Biden couldn't cancel when he took office.

Tax cuts are a systemic issue that the US government and economy has been battling since Clinton. Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy and cut taxes for businesses, families and capital gains. After that Bush came in and he cut taxes across the board. Those cuts expired under Obama but he signed an extension for those cuts to continue and subsequently made most of the Bush era tax cuts permanent. Trump came in and again imposed tax cuts. Under Biden there really hasn't been much change with some shifting in tax increases along with some tax cuts which basically balance out. Harris is campaigning on tax cuts which are essentially an extension of Trump's cuts for everyone under $400K. Harris wants to increase taxes on the rich but also provide a lot of cuts and credits to families and businesses.

The US has actually done a reasonable job of managing and controlling spending but no administration is really tackling the revenue side of things and because of that debt servicing has grown substantially.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Arnold endorses Harris and Walz

Palmer?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

No that is a very accurate statement. I don't pretend to know who is going to win but almost zero chance the Dems in if they lose one of those States.

Losing Michigan but winning say Georgia or NC seems very unlikely. If the Dems win Georgia or NC, seems almost a certainty they win Michigan and Wisconsin.

States in play: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Virginia (13), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Florida (30), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6). Without those states the count is Harris 213 and Trump 189. So, lots of iterations that can go into play. Saying losing any one state is a death nell to either campaign is silly.

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

States in play: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Virginia (13), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Florida (30), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6). Without those states the count is Harris 213 and Trump 189. So, lots of iterations that can go into play. Saying losing any one state is a death nell to either campaign is silly.

Virginia will be Blue, Florida will be Red. Those are not toss ups.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Cappy

So can we stop blaming Trudeau for the cost of living crisis and inflation or is that different?

We suffered and continue to suffer from the same rhetoric in Canada, but Trump seems to be getting a pass?

Well the Bank of Canada wants to put some blame on Trdueau:

The Bank of Canada’s efforts to tame inflation by raising interest rates are at odds with the projected pace of government spending, says governor Tiff Macklem.


Macklem spoke to reporters on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada opted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady for the second consecutive decision.

That hold comes despite new forecasts from the Bank of Canada that inflation will be higher in the near term than initially expected, though monetary policymakers still expect annual price pressures will cool to the central bank’s two per cent target by mid-2025.

Macklem was asked what impact government spending plans are having on the path for inflation. He reiterated that fiscal policy is the purview of elected officials, and that the central bank’s role there is only to bake government spending plans into its forecast.

But citing the Bank of Canada’s latest outlook, Macklem said that based on the current spending plans in the budgets of all federal and provincial governments, fiscal spending is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5 per cent next year.

“So what that means is if all those spending plans are realized, government spending will be adding to demand more than supply is growing,” he said. “And in an environment where we’re trying to moderate spending, get inflation down — that’s not helpful.”

Macklem went on to urge fiscal policymakers to consider the “inflationary impact” of their spending decisions when making up their budgets.

“It’s going to be easier to get inflation down if monetary and fiscal policy are rowing in the same direction,” he said.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Trump has the best chance based on polling numbers. You would have to ignore all of the data out there to think he is not the clear leader at the moment and recognize that a large percentage of the United States population is dumb as a post and will let their social media guide their lives. Trump and his followers own social media right now, so they have a massive advantage there. For that reason I think Trump has the inside track to 270, with probably 302 being the final count.

Having said all of that, there could be some problems brewing for Trump that could dramatically shift the needle. Number one, Trump is already laying the groundwork for a challenge in Pennsylvania, so they must have some inside data that shows them trailing there and likely to lose. Number two, the Puerto Rican vote becomes important. Florida has a big population of Puerto Rican voters, as does Pennsylvania, which could swing this vote in close Florida and Pennsylvania races. We already know Pennsylvania is in play, but it appears that Florida may have just been dragged into the mix as a state up for grabs. If Florida and Pennsylvania fall off the Trump train, Harris will win unless she collapses in Wisconsin and Michigan.

That's a lot of things that have to fall in Harris' favor. It is possible, but I still think Trump is going win by an electoral college edge and lose ugly in popular vote.

You are buying right into what he wants you to think. He has media outlets and polls putting him ahead because if they don't and he wins he will cancel them out and they will be out of business. Trump is going to lose and he is going to lose badly which is exactly what he is hoping for. Donald Trump does not want to win on election night by vote count, he wants to make his place in history by claiming the polls showed he was way ahead in every state and the only reason he lost is voter fraud. He doesn't want to win the election, he wants to overturn it and take power that way. He has already started by claiming mass voter fraud in Pennsylvania already. Why do you think he has people saying such deplorable things at his rall in NYC? Do you think he didn't know what was going to be said about Porta Rico? It is all part of his game. Trump is a narcissist, winning by overturning the election cements him in history. In the upcoming days he will put out more posts about voter fraud, so will other Republican supporters and right wing media. On election day he will declare victory early and then he will declare the election was stolen when he starts losing badly. Don't kid yourself, it will work too if he can make Congress or SCOTUS decide the outcome he will accomplish it too.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

Virginia will be Blue, Florida will be Red. Those are not toss ups.

The Puerto Rican population in Florida could swing that state. A very important voting block was really pissed off over the weekend and the blowback has not yet been measured. 5.6% of the population and 22% of that Latino voting block that Trump has really leaned into. That is a potentially big swing and shouldn't be discounted.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

Virginia will be Blue, Florida will be Red. Those are not toss ups.

There is a guy that says Fla is in play, hes been right more than wrong about a lot of things.
I mean hes no 'degenerate gambling site' but just that theres a chance. Mostly to do with turnout and how poor the gop ground game is coupled with the racist attacks. Tme will tell.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are buying right into what he wants you to think. He has media outlets and polls putting him ahead because if they don't and he wins he will cancel them out and they will be out of business. Trump is going to lose and he is going to lose badly which is exactly what he is hoping for. Donald Trump does not want to win on election night by vote count, he wants to make his place in history by claiming the polls showed he was way ahead in every state and the only reason he lost is voter fraud. He doesn't want to win the election, he wants to overturn it and take power that way. He has already started by claiming mass voter fraud in Pennsylvania already. Why do you think he has people saying such deplorable things at his rall in NYC? Do you think he didn't know what was going to be said about Porta Rico? It is all part of his game. Trump is a narcissist, winning by overturning the election cements him in history. In the upcoming days he will put out more posts about voter fraud, so will other Republican supporters and right wing media. On election day he will declare victory early and then he will declare the election was stolen when he starts losing badly. Don't kid yourself, it will work too if he can make Congress or SCOTUS decide the outcome he will accomplish it too.

This is absolutely correct.

Harris is easily ahead and will win this election. You can actually bet her at 38% odds and make a nice chunk of money IMO. I've put down a few hundred.

Florida - as much as MAGA doesn't want you to believe it - IS IN PLAY!

So is Texas....but I don't think Texas will flip though. I do think Florida has a shot.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

there is a guy that says fla is in play, hes been right more than wrong about a lot of things.
I mean hes no 'degenerate gambling site' but just that theres a chance. Mostly to do with turnout and how poor the gop ground game is coupled with the racist attacks. Tme will tell.

cbouzy!

[Dion]

Police say the man behind ballot box fires has metalworking experience and might plan more attacks

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — The man suspected of setting fires in ballot drop boxes in Oregon and Washington state is an experienced metalworker and may be planning additional attacks, authorities said Wednesday.

Investigators believe the man who set the incendiary devices at ballot boxes in Portland, Oregon, and nearby Vancouver, Washington, had a “wealth of experience” in metal fabrication and welding, said Portland Police Bureau spokesman Mike Benner.

The way the devices were constructed and the way they were attached to the metal drop boxes showed that expertise, Benner said.

The incendiary devices were marked with the message “Free Gaza,” according to a law enforcement official who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss an ongoing investigation.

A third device placed at a different drop box in Vancouver earlier this month also carried the words “Free Palestine” in addition to “Free Gaza,” the official said.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...a1711645&ei=34

[Dion]

Companies planning substantial price hikes in anticipation of Trump tariffs

Reporting by the Washington's Post's David J. Lynch bears out what Harris has been saying.

In an article published on October 30, Lynch reports that "producers of a range of items, including clothing, footwear, baby products, auto parts and hardware, say they will pass along the cost of the tariffs to their American customers."

Timothy Boyle, chief executive of Columbia Sportswear, told the Post, "We're set to raise prices. We're buying stuff today for delivery next fall. So we're just going to deal with it, and we'll just raise the prices.… It's going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans."

Similarly, AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele told the Post, "If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer. We'll generally raise prices ahead of — we know what the tariffs will be — we generally raise prices ahead of that."

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/tops...7ef0146e&ei=39

[Paulie Walnuts]

Why couldn’t these people say this stuff before so the idiots jumping up and down yayyy tariffs would know sooner.

Morons.

[calgarygeologist]

The incendiary devices were marked with the message “Free Gaza,” according to a law enforcement official who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss an ongoing investigation.

A third device placed at a different drop box in Vancouver earlier this month also carried the words “Free Palestine” in addition to “Free Gaza,” the official said.

So most likely not a MAGA looking to destroy votes.