American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by direwolf

I’ve also been reading that the GOP has all but abandoned their ground game and have poured most of their focus and resources into Trump’s Nazi rallies. And that the Harris ground effort has been far superior.

They've outsourced it, and it's pretty much entirely being run by Watermelon Husk's America PAC. There's reporting that the door-knockers are half assing it and there's a lot of fraudulent recording of door knocks. I'm sure that the message is delivered with a lot of convincing enthusiasm.

Something seems very off with polling though. Is there any perceivable event that would indicate a reason for switching to Trump? He's fading so fast as a "human" and the idea that he's gaining support while spending so much time with these low-energy and wildly off topic rallies.

It's utterly preposterous, it seems like a setup for contesting the results.

[DownInFlames]

Elon's PAC has some very antisemitic ads running in Michigan about Doug Emhoff being Jewish and Kamala being 100% in support of Israel.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Something seems very off with polling though. Is there any perceivable event that would indicate a reason for switching to Trump? He's fading so fast as a "human" and the idea that he's gaining support while spending so much time with these low-energy and wildly off topic rallies.

Trump was ahead against Biden for almost a year before Harris became the nominee. So it might just be people that switched from Trump to Harris not being that impressed by Harris and switching back.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

Elon's PAC has some very antisemitic ads running in Michigan about Doug Emhoff being Jewish and Kamala being 100% in support of Israel.

Obviously a cynical attempt to court Arab American voters in Michigan.

I get why Harris doesn't want to be too critical of Israel. But campaigning with Liz Cheney, whose dad was basically the architect of the Iraq War, in Michigan seems like a bit of an own goal.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

Elon's PAC has some very antisemitic ads running in Michigan about Doug Emhoff being Jewish and Kamala being 100% in support of Israel.

They have been micro targeting neighborhoods with online ads. The ads are contradictory, one is 'shes pro isreal' one is 'shes anti isreal', and they get sent to majority muslim or the majority jewish neighborhoods. Very Cambridge Analytica.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

I've been following the election betting odds very closely since about 2003. They've been bang on every time but once (2016), far more accurate than the polls. Hillary Clinton was about -900 to win about a week before the election in 2016.

I'm not saying that the odds will accurately predict the winner, but they are a heck of a lot more accurate than any poll.

And no, you can't parlay the betting election markets. Parlays are for suckers.

I'm a very far left leaning Democrat and voted for Harris myself, but I could see the odds starting to move in Trump direction a few weeks ago and placed a large bet on him to win. The odds have moved so far in his direction now that I could take a position on Harris to win and lock in some guaranteed profit. I'm anticipating Trump becoming a much larger favourite, and the price on Harris to win continuing to lengthen.

A monkey could have predicted every election since 2003 missing the obvious one.

Betting odds are nonsense...not sure why we have to go through this daily. Betting demographics are ridiculously skewed.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Trump was ahead against Biden for almost a year before Harris became the nominee. So it might just be people that switched from Trump to Harris not being that impressed by Harris and switching back.

But what exactly has Trump done lately to convince a bunch of voters to suddenly switch? Dude has just gotten crazier, dumber, and more senile. I can’t for the life of me see how someone who was either leaning towards or voting Harris would just suddenly go “you know what? On second thought, fascism sounds pretty good to me. Let’s vote for the guy who’s gonna completely destroy American democracy and see how it plays out.”

Unless this is all just about Gaza. But again, choosing Trump and the MAGA cult in that regard would be way, way worse in so many ways.

[dino7c]

Every early voting metric supports Harris

Turnout
More Women
Democrat registrations
First time voters
Exit Polls show late deciders breaking Harris at nearly 60%

Trump gains in polls...seems sus

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

I've been following the election betting odds very closely since about 2003. They've been bang on every time but once (2016), far more accurate than the polls. Hillary Clinton was about -900 to win about a week before the election in 2016.

I'm not saying that the odds will accurately predict the winner, but they are a heck of a lot more accurate than any poll.

And no, you can't parlay the betting election markets. Parlays are for suckers.

I'm a very far left leaning Democrat and voted for Harris myself, but I could see the odds starting to move in Trump direction a few weeks ago and placed a large bet on him to win. The odds have moved so far in his direction now that I could take a position on Harris to win and lock in some guaranteed profit. I'm anticipating Trump becoming a much larger favourite, and the price on Harris to win continuing to lengthen.

This is exactly why election betting odds are no good...you followed the herd in a manipulated market.

[Ozy_Flame]

MegaErtz a "far left leaning Democrat".

Your post history indicates significantly otherwise.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Trump was ahead against Biden for almost a year before Harris became the nominee. So it might just be people that switched from Trump to Harris not being that impressed by Harris and switching back.

How vapid and unserious do you have to be to switch BACK to Trump over the past two weeks? He's canceling interviews, he's sounding like a tired insane person, and all he does is say how awful America is. Like.. what the ####?

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by kermitology

How vapid and unserious do you have to be to switch BACK to Trump over the past two weeks? He's canceling interviews, he's sounding like a tired insane person, and all he does is say how awful America is. Like.. what the ####?

You don't have to be vapid and unserious.

You just have to watch Fox News. There is a straight propaganda outlet in the United States that consistently lies and misleads it's viewers.

Twitter now does the same thing.

They aren't bad people. They just live in the right wing ecosystem.

[kermitology]

How is not questioning Fox News and Twitter versus literally just listening to him speak and thinking.. yeah, Trump is better not vapid and unserious?

[Ped]

Word spreading on twitter that there is video and/or photos of Trump groping the daughter of a major donor. Many MAGA have been warning about a "deepfake scandal" so clearly something is dropping.


Edit: Apparently a minor.


Will his poll numbers go up again?

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Ped

Word spreading on twitter that there is video and/or photos of Trump groping the daughter of a major donor. Many MAGA have been warning about a "deepfake scandal" so clearly something is dropping.

I suspect that doesn't even cost him a single vote.
And no, I didn't forget about the woman's parents.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by kermitology

How is not questioning Fox News and Twitter versus literally just listening to him speak and thinking.. yeah, Trump is better not vapid and unserious?

I mean, you and I "get it". Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity are making huge money off spreading lies.

But the entire Fox network is holding them up as intellectual sources of information. And their news broadcasting reinforces the things they say.

If you've been watching Fox for 20 years, you trust what you're seeing and hearing.

I posted a while back about driving home for an hour and listening to Fox radio - it was right after the debate and it was a straight hour about how Trump clearly won the debate, and it wasn't surprising because he was such a smart successful business man.

That's the false narrative they have pushed for decades. If it's all you watch and hear, it's easy to believe.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Is the 'I want generals like Hitler had' quotes changing any of maga minds? No.
Independents or the undecided (that they exist at this point if mind boggling)...maybe, I truly dont know.

I think the *only* reason why things like this (or the new underage groping allegation), released this late, may move things in terms of independents, is a reminder of how ####ing exhausting Trump's first term was, and the constant reports of establishment advisers trying to resist Trump's worst tendencies, the revolving door of advisors, various allegations about Trump's history surfacing.

Maybe the people who are already checked-out just stay checked-out, maybe just enough check-in long enough to get pissed off enough to cast a ballot.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

A monkey could have predicted every election since 2003 missing the obvious one.

Betting odds are nonsense...not sure why we have to go through this daily. Betting demographics are ridiculously skewed.

It’s because you keep saying this and not realizing that there is sharp money betting on politics. It may have a lean like any polling but the general trend matches polling.

A 65%/35% odds is like a polling that is showing Trump +1-2 nationally. Is that a terrible poll? Not really. It’s essentially a Rasmussen poll.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Muta

Just an opinion, but I have a hunch that there will be voters who may change their minds right at the polling stations; a 'realization' moment that their vote counts, this is for real, and they need to make the right choice going forward for the next four years. Probably not a ton of people, but ones who will decide to remove the emotion and populist sentiment from the campaign trail out of it. I'm hinting that people may say they will vote for Trump, but know long-term in their voting booth that Harris is probably the better choice once they have a pen in their hand and in the moment.

I don’t think this happens. Marginal voters stay home.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

It’s because you keep saying this and not realizing that there is sharp money betting on politics. It may have a lean like any polling but the general trend matches polling.

A 65%/35% odds is like a polling that is showing Trump +1-2 nationally. Is that a terrible poll? Not really. It’s essentially a Rasmussen poll.

We will see who realizes what in a couple weeks