American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

When did the betting markets start voting?

Gamblers...uneducated white males mostly
sound familiar?

not to mention the VAST majority of election better is not from Americans. Polls are bad, using election odds is an even worse way to judge how things are going.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Gamblers...uneducated white males mostly
sound familiar?

not to mention the VAST majority of election better is not from Americans. Polls are bad, using election odds is an even worse way to judge how things are going.

I hope you're right. I really do.

I could also see a circumstance where the betting houses have taken a deep analytical dive into the handful of districts that will decide the electoral college, and come to conclusions that the 'wave your hands and attract viewers!' media has totally missed.

Sort of a "moneyball" situation. Except instead of it being misfit underdogs winning a baseball game, it's the dumbest MF anyone here knows becoming president again.

In either case the alarm bells for the Democratic voters (especially young women), need to be sounding non-stop for the next 3 weeks.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

I'm not a gambler, I don't know the inner working of making the odds, but I always thought it worked like the stock market and the odds change based on what people were betting moreso than the casino (or betting hall or sports book or whatever) doing research and actuary analysis.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

I'm not a gambler, I don't know the inner working of making the odds, but I always thought it worked like the stock market and the odds change based on what people were betting moreso than the casino (or betting hall or sports book or whatever) doing research and actuary analysis.

This may well be the case. I am also not a degenerate gambler.

Oh, and Double K should change his username by adding another K if he's voting for trump.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

I hope you're right. I really do.

I could also see a circumstance where the betting houses have taken a deep analytical dive into the handful of districts that will decide the electoral college, and come to conclusions that the 'wave your hands and attract viewers!' media has totally missed.

Sort of a "moneyball" situation. Except instead of it being misfit underdogs winning a baseball game, it's the dumbest MF anyone here knows becoming president again.

In either case the alarm bells for the Democratic voters (especially young women), need to be sounding non-stop for the next 3 weeks.

Nah. The line always follows the money and only the money

[puffnstuff]

Elon tweeted about polymarket 20 times, right-wingers flooded polymarket with money on Trump, and now conservatives are posting vague conspiracy theories about their own behavior.
It's almost like Polymarket ceases to have any possible predictive power when people are politically-motivated to bet on things out of right-wing cult dynamics rather than because the evidence supports the bet.

[Fuzz]

But you just know they'll point to that if they lose as evidence the election was stolen. "Elon's X poll showed 75% support for Trump!"

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Wait, so quoting a relatively well known parody social media account is part of the problem?


*blink*

This was a good one. Reminds me of some of the questions posed around these parts

https://twitter.com/user/status/1846237162989117830

To be fair I live in America so I’m completely fine being part of the problem

[puffnstuff]

Theres a new hush money to Stormy Daniels report on MSNBC.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...yes-rcna175887

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

This was a good one. Reminds me of some of the questions posed around these parts

https://twitter.com/user/status/1846237162989117830

To be fair I live in America so I’m completely fine being part of the problem

The NYT Pitchbot is outstanding
This is one of my favs

Donald Trump's racism and dementia are so alarming that I'm prepared to say that 2024 will be the last time I ever vote for him.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Elon tweeted about polymarket 20 times, right-wingers flooded polymarket with money on Trump, and now conservatives are posting vague conspiracy theories about their own behavior.
It's almost like Polymarket ceases to have any possible predictive power when people are politically-motivated to bet on things out of right-wing cult dynamics rather than because the evidence supports the bet.

Even in that scenario it should have predictive power as sharp money should come in to balance the emotional money. Cowboys are a heavy public team yet at most they get an extra point on spreads. This is because the football market is mature and there are enough volume of people betting.

Assuming modelling is right you have 538 at 55 Harris, Silver at 50, and Polymarket at 61 Trump. This is the largest gap between the models and polymarket recently. What you will see in the next week is poly market tighten. I would suspect if you buy Harris now you will be able to buy Trump and gurentee yourself a payout regardless of who wins once it swings back. I have to check the Vigs but there should be an arbitrage opportunity here.

[Senator Clay Davis]

There's a theory I read that I think is interesting about polls and betting odds. Right now a lot of the shift in polls has come from low quality and/or GOP backed pollsters. And the betting markets are being flooded with money backing Trump. The theory suggests that this is being done to create the narrative that Trump is a favorite, closing in on big/overwhelming favorite, so that when he loses the "It was stolen" narrative has its baseline. "Remember the polls? Remember Polymarket? They showed Trump in landslide territory. Harris had to have cheated, there's no other way!"

And it makes sense: the GOP can't run on reality anymore so running on crafted narratives is their only real play. And since Americans are dumb as ####, the fact that the GOP said forever that polls don't matter, are rigged, etc... that they will have totally flipped their opinion on it won't actually matter. With the correctly crafted narrative they can easily convince enough people that overturning the results makes sense.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

This may well be the case. I am also not a degenerate gambler.

Oh, and Double K should change his username by adding another K if he's voting for trump.

These Trumpers are something. They come in and gaslight and run off never to be heard from again.

What happened to FireThemUp. Gaslit us and disappeared.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Oh, Disco Don doubled down on the pet eating thing with a town hall he has with Hispanics yesterday.

Vance finally answered that he doesn't think Trump lost in 2020.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by GGG

Assuming modelling is right you have 538 at 55 Harris, Silver at 50, and Polymarket at 61 Trump. This is the largest gap between the models and polymarket recently. What you will see in the next week is poly market tighten. I would suspect if you buy Harris now you will be able to buy Trump and gurentee yourself a payout regardless of who wins once it swings back. I have to check the Vigs but there should be an arbitrage opportunity here.

Exactly. If you really believe the betting markets are completely misaligned with reality you should be putting some solid cash down on it, because if Harris is more likely than not to win, getting her at +130 is one of the better bets you could possibly make.

[Senator Clay Davis]

+130 really aren't great odds though, value really isn't there. Rather throw money on the Saints tonight at +130. Value would probably be there when we get over +180.

[MegaErtz]

She's +149 at Pinnacle right now.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I love that degenerate gamblers have now turned to politics to get their fix. Curious whats next. Reality TV? Beauty pageants?

[puffnstuff]

More on the polymarket problem

https://www.meidasplus.com/p/the-pro...ith-polymarket

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I love that degenerate gamblers have now turned to politics to get their fix. Curious whats next. Reality TV? Beauty pageants?

Was going to say how big of a degenerate do you have to be to gamble on politics.