Reasonable Expectations of When Prospects Make the NHL

[kehatch]

I was curious when we may see some of our prospects in the NHL on a regular basis. So I took a look at the last 6 drafts to see when players from each draft position reach the 40 NHL games played mark.




A few observations

First Rounders:

• We probably won't see Parekh or Honzek full time until 2026 at the earliest. Gridin is probably a season behind them.
• Coronato and Pelletier should hit the 40+ GP mark this season. Zary already has.
• We are doing well with first round picks.

Middle Rounders (2 and 3)

• Kuznetsov is in a prime spot to make the team.
• Stromgren is on the threshold. He is probably at least year away from making the team full time, but he might get a few games.
• Poirier should get some games in the next two seasons.
• We have traded or missed on a lot of our second and third round picks. Hopefully at least one of these guys can make the team in the next two seasons.

Later Rounds (4+)

• Wolf should hit the mark this season. Pospisil already has.
• There is a reasonable chance Solovyov gets to 40 in the next two seasons.
• Kerins could start seeing some games as early as this season.
• We are doing very well in this range

Not Drafted By Flames

• Brzustewicz is likely a couple of years from regular NHL time, though I expect he will start seeing a few games here and there.
• Grushnikov is probably at least a year away from making the team, but he is on the threshold.

[looooob]

nice stuff! did you consider a different GP metric for goalies?

[memphusk]

If I'm doing this right I believe its 600 goals and 1300 points?

[Andrew]

i was just thinking of kulak. kind of reminds me of poirier. deep prospects of d similar situation. i hope he steps up doesnt get lost in translation or find decent success as mid pick on another team in future.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I was curious when we may see some of our prospects in the NHL on a regular basis. So I took a look at the last 6 drafts to see when players from each draft position reach the 40 NHL games played mark.




A few observations

First Rounders:

• We probably won't see Parekh or Honzek full time until 2026 at the earliest. Gridin is probably a season behind them.
• Coronato and Pelletier should hit the 40+ GP mark this season. Zary already has.
• We are doing well with first round picks.

Middle Rounders (2 and 3)

• Kuznetsov is in a prime spot to make the team.
• Stromgren is on the threshold. He is probably at least year away from making the team full time, but he might get a few games.
• Poirier should get some games in the next two seasons.
• We have traded or missed on a lot of our second and third round picks. Hopefully at least one of these guys can make the team in the next two seasons.

Later Rounds (4+)

• Wolf should hit the mark this season. Pospisil already has.
• There is a reasonable chance Solovyov gets to 40 in the next two seasons.
• Kerins could start seeing some games as early as this season.
• We are doing very well in this range

Not Drafted By Flames

• Brzustewicz is likely a couple of years from regular NHL time, though I expect he will start seeing a few games here and there.
• Grushnikov is probably at least a year away from making the team, but he is on the threshold.

I have a feeling we’re not going to see Honzek at all.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I have a feeling we’re not going to see Honzek at all.

Why?

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Why?

Judging from the game day thread, Honzek cut Goriders off in traffic, with Butterfly in the passenger seat, filming the whole thing.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Why?

Because this is the second tournament I have watched him.

Last year he didn’t have the physical tools to compete. This year he has the tools. But he never does anything when he’s on the ice.

There are a number of forwards ahead of him on this team. Let alone the wranglers.

I just can’t see him making it.

[transplant99]

He is 19 years old and had a bad injury last year.

And you are calling him a bust?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Because this is the second tournament I have watched him.

Last year he didn’t have the physical tools to compete. This year he has the tools. But he never does anything when he’s on the ice.

There are a number of forwards ahead of him on this team. Let alone the wranglers.

I just can’t see him making it.

He was very noticeable in all the development camp sessions, in a good way.

If he’s tentative in a Young Stars game because he doesn’t want to get hurt ahead of main camp… I get it. I’d rather he push himself, but I understand.

Give him a full healthy year out of the spotlight and see where he’s at.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Judging from the game day thread, Honzek cut Goriders off in traffic, with Butterfly in the passenger seat, filming the whole thing.

That did happen but I calmed GoRiders down enough so he could go to the game. I didn't have a ticket so I stayed in the car watching on FlamesTV.

We didn't have to pay for parking with me sitting in there, so that was a plus.

If you saw these last two games and didn't know who was a first round pick, would you guess Honzek is one? I wouldn't.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by transplant99

He is 19 years old and had a bad injury last year.

And you are calling him a bust?

Yes. He won’t make the Flames as a full time player. I’m sure he will play on the wranglers since he was a first round pick.

Hope I’m wrong and he keeps developing. But I have seen nothing from him yet.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by butterfly

That did happen but I calmed GoRiders down enough so he could go to the game. I didn't have a ticket so I stayed in the car watching on FlamesTV.

We didn't have to pay for parking with me sitting in there, so that was a plus.

If you saw these last two games and didn't know who was a first round pick, would you guess Honzek is one? I wouldn't.

I’d put Basha, Misa, Ciona, Stromgren ahead of him as a minimum from the first two games. Sounds like others think Morton as well.

[Yanda]

Im not really sure what the Flames were thinking when they picked Honzek. What were they projecting him to be.. a 200' winger? It seemed like a weird pick at the time and it still feels weird.

Excited to see Misa and Basha playing well in the tournament. Basha might end up being the best player we drafted in 2024.

Edit: Not trying to take shots at Parekh but he will always be compared to Buium now.

[Groot]

Parekh is interesting as I'm pretty sure he spends most of this season back in the OHL. The Flames might give him a couple games to start the season as it might help his development having seen a couple games at NHL speed so he can wrap his head around exactly how to work on his game.

Next year is interesting as he still won't be AHL eligible but I have a hard time thinking 2 more years in the OHL is best for him. I would not be surprised to know the Flames have him planned for next season knowing the two options are OHL or NHL. Stupid rule BTW.

[Yanda]

I think he can play in the AHL as an 18 year old. Based on this tournament it looks like he needs to play defense against men.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Yanda

I think he can play in the AHL as an 18 year old. Based on this tournament it looks like he needs to play defense against men.

Parekh isn't eligible to play in the AHL until the 2026/2027 season, which is one season too many for him in the OHL. AHL would be the best solution

[lazypucker]

Only Zary and Pospisil got more than 40 NHL games from Flames picks over the last 6 years? That's pretty sad....

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by Groot

Parekh isn't eligible to play in the AHL until the 2026/2027 season, which is one season too many for him in the OHL. AHL would be the best solution

He is eligible this season, you only need to be 18 by Sept 15th to play in the AHL now.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Yanda

He is eligible this season, you only need to be 18 by Sept 15th to play in the AHL now.

Not when drafted out of the CHL

https://flamesnation.ca/news/calgary...ry-level-deals

Parekh and Gridin are considered 18-year-old signings, and their deals are eligible to slide twice (in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons) as they’re 2006 birthdays who aren’t eligible play AHL games until 2026-27 anyway.
Morin is considered a 19-year-old signing, and his deal is eligible to slide once (for the 2024-25 season), as he’s a 2005 birthday who isn’t eligible to play AHL games until 2025-26.