[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Yeah, totally insane. Because it's so likely that Draisaitl is going to repeat the past, right? So let's take the percentage of cap Draisaitl was making from ages 22-29 and increase it by 35% for ages 30-37. That's smart.

They're overpaying from day one.

Lol who gives a #### about overpaying when your option is to lose the player or sign them long term? They are trying to win the cup in the next 3 or so years, should they forgo that opportunity because they don't want to overpay him when he's old. If he puts up 110 pts in his first year it is not an overpayment from day one. If they win the cup at any point during the length of this contract, the overpayment is worth it. You are prioritizing budget over winning.

[VilleN]

Also, I'd like to see the composite updated with more current players. In all sports players are much more effective as they age because of a large improvement in training, nutrition, and supplements.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Lol who gives a #### about overpaying when your option is to lose the player or sign them long term? They are trying to win the cup in the next 3 or so years, should they forgo that opportunity because they don't want to overpay him when he's old. If he puts up 110 pts in his first year it is not an overpayment from day one. If they win the cup at any point during the length of this contract, the overpayment is worth it. You are prioritizing budget over winning.

They could have had Pesce and Skjei as UFAs and $1.5M in the piggy bank instead of this. And a haul for Draisaitl. Not saying that's what I would have done, but think of it.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You're silly if you think Chicago won't give him whatever he wants. This is the exact time to do that, while the player is in their age-19 season and the prime is yet to come. These max term deals are foolish for people in their age-30 seasons but you will get your money's worth when you give them out in their age-19 seasons to take effect at ages 21-29.

Just so im clear...Chicago will gladly pay him 16 million dollars a season then?

McDavid was no more of a complete player this year than ever before, at least in my eyes. Play the entire PP, bellyache about non-calls, on and on. Everyone who reads this forum has seen it dozens of times. Nugent-Hopkins was a much more 'complete player' in my opinion.

And they'll have to be better without McDavid and Draisaitl because the day will come when they aren't 28 and 29 anymore.

But that day is not now nor for the next few years, hence the overpaying for the back half of these deals. The window is open now, and losing LD shuts it closed, particularly if they had walked him to UFA without any return.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Also, I'd like to see the composite updated with more current players. In all sports players are much more effective as they age because of a large improvement in training, nutrition, and supplements.

I agree, that was a concern I mentioned in the original post. Who would you suggest?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just so im clear...Chicago will gladly pay him 16 million dollars a season then?

You don't think age 21-29 Bedard will be 12.5% better than age 30-37 Draisaitl? Hah. Okay, I guess. I can't tell the future but I wouldn't bet on that.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I agree, that was a concern I mentioned in the original post. Who would you suggest?

Tough to say... but guys like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kopitar, Kane, St.Louis, Datsyuk, Zetterberg.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Tough to say... but guys like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kopitar, Kane, St.Louis, Datsyuk, Zetterberg.

I'll update it with those players.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You don't think age 21-29 Bedard will be 12.5% better than age 30-37 Draisaitl? Hah. Okay, I guess. I can't tell the future but I wouldn't bet on that.

I don't think he's saying that. It's about leverage - Bedard will have less UFA years on the deal.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by butterfly

They could have had Pesce and Skjei as UFAs and $1.5M in the piggy bank instead of this. And a haul for Draisaitl. Not saying that's what I would have done, but think of it.

I don't think that makes them better. And if you're the GM, and you do that deal and then your team is worse - you are toast. Huuuge risk.

[Erick Estrada]

The reality is that the Oilers are far better off overpaying Draisaitl than letting him move on as they feel they have a Stanley Cup window. I find it really hard to put a negative spin on this contract. It's clear to me that Katz isn't going to let these guys go and that McDavid will follow suit and re-sign next offseason. He's simply willing to do what Kraft was doing for Brady who spent nearly his entire career underpaid in New England for reasons nobody knows but Brady and Kraft wink-wink.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You don't think age 21-29 Bedard will be 12.5% better than age 30-37 Draisaitl? Hah. Okay, I guess. I can't tell the future but I wouldn't bet on that.

Doesn't matter what I, you or anyone not in the Hawks front office thinks.

He does not have leverage beyond holding out and not getting paid anything and/or asking for a trade, something that is in team control.

UFA's do not have that worry. You either make them happy or they move on to another club that does. RFA's dont have any of that available.

Its pretty straight forward stuff.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I'll update it with those players.

Based on nothing but gut feeling but you probably would have to use a stratified sample method. Star players don't age like the normal crop, at least their production doesn't seem to fall off the same way.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Doesn't matter what I, you or anyone not in the Hawks front office thinks.

He does not have leverage beyond holding out and not getting paid anything and/or asking for a trade, something that is in team control.

UFA's do not have that worry. You either make them happy or they move on to another club that does. RFA's dont have any of that available.

Its pretty straight forward stuff.

If they Treliving him, he will Tkachuk his way out of there. But they won’t do it and I’m willing to bet.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It's a 32 team league, getting to the finals isn't easy. Winning a Cup is even harder.

If you have to sacrifice 4 years at the back end of the deal you do it if you think it gives you 3 or 4 good looks at a championship. There really was no other option.

He wasn't good in the finals but his career playoff pace over 82 games is 45 goals and 120 points.

Yeah I see little point in arguing that the Oilers did the wrong thing by signing him.

They had to.

You don't get two key pieces in place with recent success and then break it up in the name of asset management.

I do think think the construct of the team is such that they are in tough to have the success they want in the next four years, and I think when age gets two players that have played honestly too much in their mid 20s the wheels are going to completely come off the franchise.

But for 2024-2027 this was the only move.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Based on nothing but gut feeling but you probably would have to use a stratified sample method. Star players don't age like the normal crop, at least their production doesn't seem to fall off the same way.

Right, but since we are comparing old legends and current legends to Draisaitl I think it’s fair to not do that.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Also, I'd like to see the composite updated with more current players. In all sports players are much more effective as they age because of a large improvement in training, nutrition, and supplements.

I don't have that available, but I can give you an answer from this. This was the 2019/20 season. If you look at EVERY player on this list that is in their 30s, every single one of them only hit 80 points one more time in their careers (and Kopitar and Carlson have none, Kane actually hit 90). Every one of these players averaged something in the 60-80 point range for the remainder of their careers (or worse).

Gretzky's first couple years in LA were effective, but after that, he was basically a show piece. Lemieux and Crosby have been effective were into their mid-thirties, but the number of players who are truly valuable (greater than 12% of the cap, valuable), well into their 30s, is really low.

Originally Posted by butterfly

They paid 11.3% of cap for the prime age 22-29 years and now they're going to pay 15.2% of cap for the decline age 30-37 years. Which of those two do you think will be the better deal for the team?

That stats don't lie: you pay people in their 30s for past production, and you do not get value for your money.

(I agree the Oilers had no choice, and I agree it's done for the first few years, but it is difficult to argue against the fact that, for the life of the contract, it is likely to have very poor value)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah I see little point in arguing that the Oilers did the wrong thing by signing him.

They had to.

You don't get two key pieces in place with recent success and then break it up in the name of asset management.

I do think think the construct of the team is such that they are in tough to have the success they want in the next four years, and I think when age gets two players that have played honestly too much in their mid 20s the wheels are going to completely come off the franchise.

But for 2024-2027 this was the only move.

Also these deep playoff runs factor into the hard miles on these two. One has to think that fatigue may set in next season especially when you consider the age of the overall roster.

[All In Good Time]

They should have deferred 104M to year 9. you know because of interest and inflation

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't have that available, but I can give you an answer from this. This was the 2019/20 season. If you look at EVERY player on this list that is in their 30s, every single one of them only hit 80 points one more time in their careers (and Kopitar and Carlson have none, Kane actually hit 90). Every one of these players averaged something in the 60-80 point range for the remainder of their careers (or worse).

Gretzky's first couple years in LA were effective, but after that, he was basically a show piece. Lemieux and Crosby have been effective were into their mid-thirties, but the number of players who are truly valuable (greater than 12% of the cap, valuable), well into their 30s, is really low.



That stats don't lie: you pay people in their 30s for past production, and you do not get value for your money.

(I agree the Oilers had no choice, and I agree it's done for the first few years, but it is difficult to argue against the fact that, for the life of the contract, it is likely to have very poor value)

You definitely get better value with younger players, I don't necessarily agree that you are paying for past production. I think you are paying a player with a lot of leverage vs. a player with very little. In both cases you are looking at their resumes to determine salary.