2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Mr.Coffee]

Does anyone actually think the Jays will make the playoffs?

[browna]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Does anyone actually think the Jays will make the playoffs?

Not out of the question. Obviously their play on the field doesn't inspire much confidence, but a couple 3 or 4 game winning streaks or winning 2 of 3 and not losing 4 or 5 in a row very often isn't a hard ask.

There are 33 opponent series left. 26, 3 games series, one 2 game series and 5, 4 games series.

According Fangraphs, a 21.8% chance today.

Cutoff for third wildcard appears to be about 86 wins, to a record of 58 and 46 in remaining games could get it done. 12 games over .500 in the next 104 games isn't again, some monumental task given what this lineup should produce. 10 more measly runs in this first two months could have them 6 more wins and be 4 games over .500 and not 2 under and that would have them more or less right on pace for squeaking in and making the playoffs, as weak as that appears.

[Roof-Daddy]

I dunno, I wouldn't count on the Jays figuring things out, but they should be better than this.

On this date last year the Phillies were 25-32, had a -46 run differential and were 8 games back of Atlanta tied for last in the NL east.

They ended up winning 90 games and going to game 7 of the NL championship series.

There is always hope, or maybe the Jays just suck.

[KelVarnsen]

The 2023(and 2024) Phillies roster is better than the 2024 Jays roster. The Jays aren’t going to make the playoffs.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I dunno, I wouldn't count on the Jays figuring things out, but they should be better than this.

On this date last year the Phillies were 25-32, had a -46 run differential and were 8 games back of Atlanta tied for last in the NL east.

They ended up winning 90 games and going to game 7 of the NL championship series.

There is always hope, or maybe the Jays just suck.

They have sucked to this point.

Some stark stats:

They've had 10, 1 run games. 2-8 is the record.

In 6 of those 8, 1 run loss games, they've had 2 or less runs.

Overall in 20 of their 30 losses they've had 2 runs or less.

If they instead had just 4 runs in each of those 20 games, instead of 2 or less, they'd have 6 more wins, and 3 other games would've had the game tied.

Even 3 runs instead of 2 or less, would have them with 2 more wins, and 4 other games tied.

Long story short, 16 measly runs, over 58 games, in the right games where they only had 2 or less runs in the game and lost, would have turned 6 of those 20 losses into wins.

16 more runs would still have them 19th in the league for runs scored instead of being tied for 24th with the 1/3 of a budget Oakland A's.

[Roof-Daddy]

Exactly, if just a couple of the Jays bats can get going again, many of these close losses might turn into wins and they might go on a solid run the last 2/3 of the season. It's not impossible, this is a team that has averaged 90 wins per season for 4 years now. They're better than they've shown so far this season, hopefully they figure it out.

If not, maybe we get some of the big changes everybody seems to want.

[Roof-Daddy]

Problem is every time something good happens something bad also happens.

A starting pitcher who's been struggling starts to come around.....well a different SP who's been solid either gets hurt or starts sucking.

A relief pitcher starts to perform better or gets healthy....another one gets hurt or starts getting rocked.

A bat starts to come to life, a different bat goes ice cold.

If it ever all clicks at once they might really go on a tear, but it won't be easy being force fed a steady diet of Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox and Rays.

[Cowboy89]

The following need to happen to make the playoffs:
- Return to career averages of Bo, Springer, & Vladdy - Vladdy is coming around - need Bo & Springer to be there too
- Jansen to stay healthy to keep Kirk on the bench (his baserunning is costing the Jays in ways stats can't measure)
- Romano to return to form.
- Starters to maintain performance

If those happen then they have a shot at the 3rd WC

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

The following need to happen to make the playoffs:
- Return to career averages of Bo, Springer, & Vladdy - Vladdy is coming around - need Bo & Springer to be there too
- Jansen to stay healthy to keep Kirk on the bench (his baserunning is costing the Jays in ways stats can't measure)
- Romano to return to form.
- Starters to maintain performance

If those happen then they have a shot at the 3rd WC

I think given the hole they've dug here they probably also need the April version of Turner not the May version of Turner along with all that other stuff.

[flamingred89]

I'd say they also need to figure out a way to get Horowitz up to the bigs. Likely at the expense of Clement or Biggio. Probably Clement because of Cavan's extra outfield utility and he's a lefty. Have Vlad and Turner take more reps at 3rd and flip between Horowitz,Vladdy,Turner, and Vogey at DH with whoever has the hot hand.

[flamingred89]

Vogey batting 4th. I love it. Dude has been mashing lately and I hope he turns into a folk hero this summer.

[KelVarnsen]

I’ve seen better acting in porn than in Jays commercials

[flamingred89]

And that's ball game.

Had him on the 0-2 ropes for a long time too.

[flamingred89]

Damn. IKF with good contact. Jays unlucky to not get more. But thankfully they're on the board.

[browna]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

I’ve seen better acting in porn than in Jays commercials

"Can I have a bite?"
Or one of Hazel's commercials?

[flamingred89]

The Orioles are everything we thought the Jays may be 4 years ago.

Hard not to see them winning multiple upon multiple championships.

[KelVarnsen]

The Orioles are a much better team than the Jays

[Joborule]

In order to be a playoff team, you have to beat playoff caliber teams.

Blue Jays are not a playoff caliber team.

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by browna

"Can I have a bite?"
Or one of Hazel's commercials?

I have no issue with Hazel or her commercials

[browna]

Bo 0-15. Knock him to 8th below Springer.

Looks like they had some extra Albert Belle bobbleheads and rebranded them as Vlad.