2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[browna]

If they're in the hunt they definitely add peices in July, it's the way Rogers has operated before.

If they're slow out of the gate (ie by early June) or don't make the playoffs or for that matter dont win a round, Mattingly is the new manager.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I hate to throw this out you're speaking facts, but perhaps something isn't quite right with WAR and it's overvaluing defence.

What's more likely? WAR, a widely accepted model that takes a lot of things into account overvaluing defence OR fans undervaluing it?

It's actually shocking how many Jays fans are quickly turning on the strong defence that the Jays have created for themselves when it wasn't even three years ago that the team missed the play-offs by a game because they were below average in the field.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

What's more likely? WAR, a widely accepted model that takes a lot of things into account overvaluing defence OR fans undervaluing it?

It's actually shocking how many Jays fans are quickly turning on the strong defence that the Jays have created for themselves when it wasn't even three years ago that the team missed the play-offs by a game because they were below average in the field.

It's unlikely, admittedly. But why just take things at face value without questioning it somewhat? Anyway, my argument for having a well rounded lineup is that teams pitch around particular guys when there are holes. I've always been against guys like Teoscar (pure offense and terrible defence). But it doesn't mean they have to go to the extremes one way or another. I personally believe they should've gone for an average defender but gone for a guy who can get on base and more HRs. My theory is black holes in the lineup demoralize teams more than a bad defensive play in the outfield every 5th game. I'm not even sure teams fully buy into WAR or have their own models.

[Jason14h]

I am still curious who this mythical player is we should have gone for!

I agree we needed more offense but there wasn’t much available that made sense cost wise

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I am still curious who this mythical player is we should have gone for!

I agree we needed more offense but there wasn’t much available that made sense cost wise

Personally I was thinking they were forced to deal Vlad for a package. Not sure that would've been the right move as you have to live and die with that talent, but that would've been an interesting proposition. As much as the team is subtly hyping themselves as contenders, management is showing this is a "show me" season. Next year there will be massive changes if they don't show enough. Ultimately with a mediocre prospect base, I still think they'll have to deal Vlad. Hopefully this year it'll be because his value is higher and the package is greater.


I didn't fully "want" him, but I thought Guerriel would've been a good "prospect" to go after in a year where you didn't need to go with the steady but low upside KK.

[Jason14h]

Guerriel was never leaving Arizona . He was also terrible in the 2nd half.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Guerriel was never leaving Arizona . He was also terrible in the 2nd half.

Both fair points. KK is stable. Low upside. Again, I'm not angry at management. Worst thing they could've done was overreact and pay some guy crazy money for the sure falter to follow. If this is a show me year, it's about Varsho and Vlad, and to some degree Biggio. If those guys don't show up in a big way, I imagine all will be gone. I'd have gone with Guerriel because of the slightly higher upside than KK in a show me year, but I'm not upset about it because I truly don't think they're going anywhere this year. Too many unknown factors, too many bounce back hopes, while also hoping for healthy pitching. Uncertainty x uncertainty = lower chance of it working out. I accept that this year.

[Cowboy89]

All this talk of bats and WAR. With Romano & Swanson on the IL to start the season they likely will have an April hole to climb out of this season.

Fellow reliever Erik Swanson is dealing with a forearm injury, leaving Yimi Garcia and Chad Green as candidates for closing duties until Romano returns.

Per globe. It's going to be rough watching Yimi try to close out games. Additionally I'm not sure Chad Green is back given his rough comeback last year. If offense struggles, bullpen is shorthanded & Kukuchi isn't quite on form this start has the potential to look very 2017-like

[mrkajz44]

I think the reason defense is undervalued by fans, but properly valued in WAR, is it's hard to judge defense and difficult to see good defense when it's out there. Now, amazing defense is usually easy to see, but great defense vs good defense might not be very clear at all.

For example, a ball run down in the gap by a great CF that makes it look like a bit of a stretch could very well be a double by an okay CF. But you can't really see that because there is no baseline to compare to - it's pretty much impossible to tell if the CF got a good jump and took a good route compared to just an okay one.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I think the reason defense is undervalued by fans, but properly valued in WAR, is it's hard to judge defense and difficult to see good defense when it's out there. Now, amazing defense is usually easy to see, but great defense vs good defense might not be very clear at all.

For example, a ball run down in the gap by a great CF that makes it look like a bit of a stretch could very well be a double by an okay CF. But you can't really see that because there is no baseline to compare to - it's pretty much impossible to tell if the CF got a good jump and took a good route compared to just an okay one.

Yes.

Errors is also a flawed stat. I would want my team to make more errors, that also means they're getting to more balls and making more plays. A team that never moves towards a ball will make less errors.

[Roof-Daddy]

Romano starting on the IL
Swanson starting on the IL
Mayza's velocity down 2-3mph

Top three relievers from last season in question to start the season.

Going to test the bullpen depth right out of the gate.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I am still curious who this mythical player is we should have gone for!

I agree we needed more offense but there wasn’t much available that made sense cost wise

I don't buy that at all, within the Athletic they gave the Jays an "D" as an rating for example in terms of offseason acquisitions.

So far, I have not read anything positive from Media on their offseason

Jays should have made a trade, at the end of last season they stated, lack of offense was the issue.

This was not addressed, if anything its worse.

Jays have to see big seasons from Vladdy, Bo, George and Varsho

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

It's actually shocking how many Jays fans are quickly turning on the strong defence that the Jays have created for themselves when it wasn't even three years ago that the team missed the play-offs by a game because they were below average in the field.

Maybe it's because it's easier to remember last season where on the backs of an inept offense we squeeked in only to be swept in the WC (which is only barely better then missing by a game IMO)... oh yeah and the team was boring to watch (baseball is entertainment and the 2023 Jays were not entertaining) if you can't be great you ought to at least be fun and the 2023 Jays were neither. The offense was the teams Achilles heel last year and not only did they not address it they made it worse (on paper anyways).

If the Bautista era Jays fell behind I kept watching because I knew they could bash their way back into any game. When last years Jays fell behind I often felt like I may as well get an early start on the rest of my day.

For baseball I'm not much of a "sack the management!" type... but if there isn't a vast vast improvement I want Shapiro and Atkins thrown into a container and shipped to parts unknown.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by flambers

I don't buy that at all, within the Athletic they gave the Jays an "D" as an rating for example in terms of offseason acquisitions.

So far, I have not read anything positive from Media on their offseason

Jays should have made a trade, at the end of last season they stated, lack of offense was the issue.

This was not addressed, if anything its worse.

Jays have to see big seasons from Vladdy, Bo, George and Varsho

I didn’t say the Jays had a good offseason. I’m saying there wasn’t a lot of these mythical corner OF power bats available .

Pitching depth in FAs was strong this offseason - something the Jays didn’t need

The best UFA hitters all had major flaws and ended up signing effectively 1 year deals

I would have preferred an upgrade on KK and KK being the 4th OF . I just didn’t see a lot out there without massively overpaying . And overpaying can put the team in a bad financial postition to sign vlad and /or Bo

Our minor league system is also very weak , so unless you wanted Tieds traded you aren’t getting anything of real value in the trade market .

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The best UFA hitters all had major flaws and ended up signing effectively 1 year deals

The best UFA hitters ended up signing effectively 1 year deals eh... sounds like something the Jays should have gotten.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Parallex

The best UFA hitters ended up signing effectively 1 year deals eh... sounds like something the Jays should have gotten.

But they weren’t willing to sign when the Jays were active .

The Jays moved and went and got multiple “filler” players because these guys were asking for 7 years deals

Chapman turned down 5 years and $100 million from the Jays. You think he countered with the deal he took with SF …..

If these deals were avail to the Jays at the time of course they would have signed these guys to those deals

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Yes.

Errors is also a flawed stat. I would want my team to make more errors, that also means they're getting to more balls and making more plays. A team that never moves towards a ball will make less errors.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

But they weren’t willing to sign when the Jays were active.

When the Jays were active?...

A: The time the Jays should be "active" is "all the time". I fail to see why those teams could be "active" when they signed them but the Jays couldn't.

B: Them being "active" constitutes signing KK, 39 year old Justin Turner, & Kiner-Falefa... none of which strike me as something you need to do in haste.

Really thou... "we did things that range from meh to bad earlier so we can't pick up better UFA hitters now"... doesn't strike me as something someone can say and expect to receive understanding nods.

Bottom line is that there were good deals to be had and the Jays didn't make any of them and now we have guys in corners who don't hit (or at least who haven't hit so far).

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Typical GS hot take got you all confused eh?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

Typical GS hot take got you all confused eh?

lol. Yeah, you don't want your team making errors... I get what he's saying thou.

I mean a SS doesn't get to a grounder in time because he lacks range or because he shaded to far to the 3B line and the batter pulls up for a single doesn't get tagged with an error but a SS who huffs it or positions himself correctly, leaps to trap the ball on the infield but bobbles it when he pops up to make the throw will (frequently) get tagged with one.

Errors are a stupid stat.