It seems like a lot more downed Russian aircraft lately. Is this the result of additional AA installations or a tactic thing? Seems counter to the recent experience on the ground with lack of munitions/artillery.
There are questions. Apparently the German patriots are more flexible and individual launchers can be operate very far from the battery and only activate once told a target is in range. There was speculation about this last year for some of the cross-border shoot-downs.
These recent AWACS drownings seem like they would be too far for that so there is speculation of unannounced new missiles or existing missiles having greater range than published.
People also talking about F-16s arriving early but doubt an F-16 could get close enough without being targeted.
Edit: I agree if it is Patriot or other existing missiles it runs counter to reports of dwindling missile supplies and decreasing drone/cruise missile interception rates. Yet more speculation that Ukraine is targeting AWACS and AA complexes to clear the airspace for F-16s when they arrive.
Last edited by edslunch; 02-23-2024 at 05:46 PM.
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It seems like a lot more downed Russian aircraft lately. Is this the result of additional AA installations or a tactic thing? Seems counter to the recent experience on the ground with lack of munitions/artillery.
From some of the podcasts and technical briefings I have seen, it seems part of the tactic leading up to the 2nd anniversary was a massive uptick in Russian pressure in Avdiivka. They brought it all to the fight, mass levels of troops, firepower, artillery, shelling and a lot more fixed wing aircraft to drop bombs and attack ground troops. Ukrainian forces were just over run and lack the ability to fight back in reasonable scenarios. Looking more and more grim for them.
A few of the fixed wing aircraft were hit with surface to air missile systems (SAM)
Some great fighter jet erotica over on noncredibledefense. It would be pretty cool for Ukraine to get a couple of F-117's however unlikely that would be. For now, all we can do is fantasize.
".... The f-117 opened it's bay doors, revealing the paveways behind them. The kerch bridge looked small and Innocent in the distance but lustful for the paveways girth....."#
The wife and I finally got around to watching 20 Days in Mariupol last night. I have been putting off watching it for now, just because of how much news from the war we are constantly inundated with all day long. But my wife insisted it was time, so we gave it a watch. Not exactly the glamorous friday night film while drinking beers and smoking weed I imagined, but we ended up watching it.
Obviously goes without saying it is a very powerful movie. My wife was crying the entire time, but for me it made me more angry than anything. Probably the most infuriating scene was the Z tank parked on the street and just shooting at the apartment block randomly. Like, who the #### are you to sit in a tank like that, drive into another country's territory, and blindly start shooting like that at civilian buildings like it's a god damn video game. #### each every single russian soldier parading around on UA land like it's their own, targeting others.
I usually use a russian-based torrent site to download films, as they have the RU dub or subtitles imbedded in the movies, so easier for my wife to follow. Imagine my surprise when I put in the film's title in the search bar, but no results . So I wrote the word "Mariupol" in russian then searched for it.
Low and behold, I guess I found the "true" story of Mariupol!
Spoiler!
Link again in case anyone needs to see the "fake" version.
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Don't start running into Sliver's bomb shelter just yet, but it is kind of alarming that Macron is openly saying that European soldiers could be sent to Ukriane because Russian victory cannot be option. He acknowledges that there is no consensus on that issue, but the fact he is openly talking about it is pretty intense.
Quote:
"There is no consensus at this stage ... to send troops on the ground," Macron told reporters. "Nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we must so that Russia does not win."
In other news, Sweden has cleared the final hurdle to join NATO. The Hungarian parliament voted in favour. Two hundred years of official neutrality is over. I say "official", because Sweden's values have always been congruent with Western values.
Completely unrelated though, I wonder if this means Sweden won't be able to act as a third party broker for countries that do not have relations for political reasons. For example. the Swedish embassy in North Korea was Canada's proxy in the country when required. Now that they will be in NATO very quickly, I wonder if they lose that clout now that they are officially aligned with the evil West.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 02-27-2024 at 12:39 AM.
Don't start running into Sliver's bomb shelter just yet, but it is kind of alarming that Macron is openly saying that European soldiers could be sent to Ukriane because Russian victory cannot be option. He acknowledges that there is no consensus on that issue, but the fact he is openly talking about it is pretty intense.
In other news, Sweden has cleared the final hurdle to join NATO. The Hungarian parliament voted in favour. Two hundred years of official neutrality is over. I say "official", because Sweden's values have always been congruent with Western values.
Completely unrelated though, I wonder if this means Sweden won't be able to act as a third party broker for countries that do not have relations for political reasons. For example. the Swedish embassy in North Korea was Canada's proxy in the country when required. Now that will be in NATO very quickly, I wonder if they lose that clout not that they are official aligned with the evil West.
I think there is more of a realization that the west really just messed this up more and more. A lot of the bad news is coming out now and it's getting harder and harder to keep the morale up and see a realistic opportunity for Ukraine to move Russian troops away.
All of a sudden Europe's pledge of 1 million shells by March 2024 is looking like a pathetic joke. They quietly acknowledged they were going to miss the target by 50% but only 30% of that lower amount has been delivered.
Bottom line is that the US and the west is going to have to arm Ukraine to the tits, and with the level of weapons that will make a serious difference.
We are getting to the point where Russia will need to suffer a significant military defeat or it will be Europe that will suffer the defeat. Putin should have been stopped at the start but he will try poking the bear with NATO just for laughs.
There are the talkers, which appears to be the west and Europe and there is the doers like Putin and the guy who filled his request for a million shells quicker than I typed this message, "Rocket Man" from North Korea .
I think there is more of a realization that the west really just messed this up more and more. A lot of the bad news is coming out now and it's getting harder and harder to keep the morale up and see a realistic opportunity for Ukraine to move Russian troops away.
All of a sudden Europe's pledge of 1 million shells by March 2024 is looking like a pathetic joke. They quietly acknowledged they were going to miss the target by 50% but only 30% of that lower amount has been delivered.
Bottom line is that the US and the west is going to have to arm Ukraine to the tits, and with the level of weapons that will make a serious difference.
We are getting to the point where Russia will need to suffer a significant military defeat or it will be Europe that will suffer the defeat. Putin should have been stopped at the start but he will try poking the bear with NATO just for laughs.
There are the talkers, which appears to be the west and Europe and there is the doers like Putin and the guy who filled his request for a million shells quicker than I typed this message, "Rocket Man" from North Korea .
Crazy times indeed
We know North Korea is sending ammunition by the train loads to the Russians, and likely China is sending stuff as well. Iran is sending advanced drones.
Ammunition burns incredibly fast in a real war situation, and when your short of it people die. Ukraine is going to start running low on men at some point, the correlation of forces strongly favors the Russians and with Ukraine short on ammo that kill ration goes out the window.
We're also heading towards summer, which is when we will likely see a Russian offensive, and if that happens its going to be really difficult for Ukraine to get any kind of initiative back.
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We know North Korea is sending ammunition by the train loads to the Russians, and likely China is sending stuff as well. Iran is sending advanced drones.
Ammunition burns incredibly fast in a real war situation, and when your short of it people die. Ukraine is going to start running low on men at some point, the correlation of forces strongly favors the Russians and with Ukraine short on ammo that kill ration goes out the window.
We're also heading towards summer, which is when we will likely see a Russian offensive, and if that happens its going to be really difficult for Ukraine to get any kind of initiative back.
It's incredibly sad because Ukrainians have shown such remarkable bravery and resilience against a much larger opponent. I'm am 1000% pro-Ukraine and have tried not to post anything negative about Ukraine's situation, but truth be told, I am worried about their chances if Russia launches a summer offensive, especially if they open another front in the north. Would there be enough resources to prevent an invasion in the north, and still hold the front lines in the east and south?
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It's incredibly sad because Ukrainians have shown such remarkable bravery and resilience against a much larger opponent. I'm am 1000% pro-Ukraine and have tried not to post anything negative about Ukraine's situation, but truth be told, I am worried about their chances if Russia launches a summer offensive, especially if they open another front in the north. Would there be enough resources to prevent an invasion in the north, and still hold the front lines in the east and south?
It is hard to not see it that way, and be angry that the world has failed the people of Ukraine. I think putins calculus once he didn’t win quickly is that the west(US) would tire of this in the long run if he turned it into a meat grinder. That appears to be working.
That said, it is tough to see how Putin gets a total victory here too. If he advances a lot it stretches his lines too and concentrates Ukraines defences, but then we just end uo p with a stalemate. Things may go static here for a bit with Putin hoping Ukraine eventually capitulates and approaches him to stop it.
The only thing that could change that is Ukraine getting total air superiority, if they had that they could cut the head of the snake by destroying the supply lines and support columns for the front. That would be a game changer.
It is hard to not see it that way, and be angry that the world has failed the people of Ukraine. I think putins calculus once he didn’t win quickly is that the west(US) would tire of this in the long run if he turned it into a meat grinder. That appears to be working.
That said, it is tough to see how Putin gets a total victory here too. If he advances a lot it stretches his lines too and concentrates Ukraines defences, but then we just end uo p with a stalemate. Things may go static here for a bit with Putin hoping Ukraine eventually capitulates and approaches him to stop it.
The only thing that could change that is Ukraine getting total air superiority, if they had that they could cut the head of the snake by destroying the supply lines and support columns for the front. That would be a game changer.
In fairness...thats really 'The Russian Way.'
Look at most Russian military actions throughout History and they typically all end more or less the same way.
"Throw men and materiel at it until its over."
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The only thing that could change that is Ukraine getting total air superiority, if they had that they could cut the head of the snake by destroying the supply lines and support columns for the front. That would be a game changer.
Shooting down 1-2 planes a day is a way to get to that goal.
Another 2 Su-34 confirmed downed today, making 10 in 10 days.
Russia has been using glide bombs extensively in their push for Avdiivka and beyond, and it appear in the past 2 weeks they have forgone all risk assessment to push ahead sensing blood with Ukraine's lack of artillery.
Unfortunately this is a side effect of Ukraine ammunition reaching a critical state, and after losing Avdiivka it doesn't appear that Ukraine had much of a plan B. West of Avdiivka is more or less open terrain and will need to be ceded.
Don't start running into Sliver's bomb shelter just yet, but it is kind of alarming that Macron is openly saying that European soldiers could be sent to Ukriane because Russian victory cannot be option. He acknowledges that there is no consensus on that issue, but the fact he is openly talking about it is pretty intense.
I have always said since about day 3 of the war that one way or another, NATO is going to get dragged kicking and screaming into this conflict. I still believe that. Hope I'm wrong and UA can be armed to the point of doing it themselves, but with just how pathetic the past few months have been outside of a select few countries, I don't see how it's not headed down that path. I think slowly but surely, the big players in the EU realize just how big of a problem this is becoming. Europeans always say that the EU is powerful when it activates, but it takes forever to get there. Case in point. For a country that only recognizes force and strength, the West as a whole has done such a piss poor job of projecting that towards russia. I don't have an issue with what Macron says, because he might just be realizing that this is a reality that awaits them if they don't act now.
The russians might be sacks of ####, but they aren't stupid. They know exactly how to pull the strings of fear that hang over much of the world and know how to exploit each and every sign of weakness the west has shown for years now. So yeah, it sucks when you hear Macron saying things like this and him anticipating a larger conflict. But this is what you get when you sit around hoping and praying the reds simply go away.
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I have always said since about day 3 of the war that one way or another, NATO is going to get dragged kicking and screaming into this conflict. I still believe that. Hope I'm wrong and UA can be armed to the point of doing it themselves, but with just how pathetic the past few months have been outside of a select few countries, I don't see how it's not headed down that path. I think slowly but surely, the big players in the EU realize just how big of a problem this is becoming. Europeans always say that the EU is powerful when it activates, but it takes forever to get there. Case in point. For a country that only recognizes force and strength, the West as a whole has done such a piss poor job of projecting that towards russia. I don't have an issue with what Macron says, because he might just be realizing that this is a reality that awaits them if they don't act now.
The russians might be sacks of ####, but they aren't stupid. They know exactly how to pull the strings of fear that hang over much of the world and know how to exploit each and every sign of weakness the west has shown for years now. So yeah, it sucks when you hear Macron saying things like this and him anticipating a larger conflict. But this is what you get when you sit around hoping and praying the reds simply go away.
I dont know. It could go either way.
On one hand, I dont think you're wrong. If the Western World wants to be sure the Russians dont win, money and materiel probably isn't going to cut it.
I dont think the Ukrainians can do it on their own, even with a little help from their friends.
So in that sense, NATO is going to have to get off their asses and put the Bear down.
Because assistance aside, I dont think Ukraine can do this on their own.
If this isn't ended soon and Russia decide on a Spring/Summer offensive, Ukraine are probably in serious trouble.
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I think that money and material could have been enough had it been done quickly and efficiently. The problem, as we have all seen, is that the US has shown itself to be completely unreliable, the EU is way to f'ing slow, and the material seems to be heading to the wrong country via NK, Iran and China. Had the flow of weapons been steady towards UA and the west understood from the start that a steady continuous stream might have forced Putin to withdraw, then we could all have patted ourselves on the back at a later date and "western solidarity" would have won the prize.
Instead, a silly boil-the-frog approach was taken in which the frog was continuously allowed to turn the heat down and had cold water poured in the pot by their friends, silly nuclear threats sent various western leaders running, a stupid 2 party system in the US causing aid to run dry by a single person, and dumb statements by NATO and western leaders who instead of projecting strength towards russia instead showed weakness by making statements about never fighting russia and never entering the conflict. Instead of the russians breathing a collective sigh of relief and perhaps showing restraint, they simply laughed at our weakness and have been escalating since.
Russia is 100% to blame for all that has happened, but the west shot themselves and Ukraine in the foot repeatedly with whatever plan it is they have going for them, because the plan sucks and isn't working. One more thing I will say is that the lack of manpower Ukraine faces can be directly related to the lack of a steady stream of weapons and arms. After the Kharkiv offensive, almost all UAs I spoke with saw optimism for the war and a lot of guys were showing their patriotism for the countrymen and a few spoke about returning to fight if the tide turned. Instead of arming Ukraine to the teeth after that offensive, aid trickled in at a slower pace and UA advances slowed. Now every single UA man I have spoken says there is no way in hell they are returning, if ever, and refuse to be a bullet sponge. I'd say morale has dipped pretty low recently, and I imagine it's like that in many countries refugees are residing.
Time isn't on Ukraine's side unfortunately, not with how aid has slowed.
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Bottom line is that the guy with the biggest brass ****s and the guy who want's it more is the one getting it done. Everybody else still thinking "sanctions" will get it done.
I have said it before and I will say it again. How is 1 guy bossing everybody else around worldwide? We are letting it happen and we are all going to look really stupid once this escalates to other countries and we will have the same spineless leaders wondering if additional sanctions will work.
Bottom line is that the guy with the biggest brass ****s and the guy who want's it more is the one getting it done. Everybody else still thinking "sanctions" will get it done.
I have said it before and I will say it again. How is 1 guy bossing everybody else around worldwide? We are letting it happen and we are all going to look really stupid once this escalates to other countries and we will have the same spineless leaders wondering if additional sanctions will work.
Sigh.
Nobody thinks that. It's just the easiest to do, most palatable to the citizens of other nations, costs basically nothing and doesn't risk the lives of people living in other countries.
It's really basic and simple to see why they're doing it.
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Russia invades Ukraine
. So I wrote the word "Mariupol" in russian then searched for it.
