[Rumour] TSN: Hanifin decision expected in coming days. D market waits on Tanev

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

...To potentially draft a good top-4 D with?

Yeah, an 18 year old. So the next time the Flames are on the upswing, he’s making league minimum and getting better, rather than $7.5 million and getting worse.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by cannon7

That is what he is now. You (and I) have no idea what he will be in four years time. Plenty of smooth skating defencemen hav fallen off a cliff in their 30's.

I never got this one either. If anything he won't have his skating to fall back on when it's gone. His skating is why I have him up in Andersson and Weegar's category.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Let's start with one of the best. Bobby Orr retired when he was 30.

Hahahaha...cool.

Now look at the career length of every other skating-style defenseman since then. Oh, and be sure to start when orthoscopic surgery became a regular method of dealing with joint injury to extend careers.

Bobby Orr...jesus ####ing christ. May as well have gone back to the 20's and mentioned a player that stopped playing because of polio. Apples to apples please.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

...To potentially draft a good top-4 D with?

Who wouldn’t cost $7.5M for at least another four years.

[Bs&Cs]

Bobby Orr was also never at any point in his career completely healthy. His knees were shot from his teenage years. It’s remarkable he was even still playing (sort of playing anyway) to 30. It’s nonsense to even bring him up.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Let's start with one of the best. Bobby Orr retired when he was 30.

Bobby Orr retired when he was 30 because the first MRI on a human subject was only performed when he was 29.

[traptor]

At this point it's in Hanifin's hands if he wants to stay or not.
If he's traded its not because the flames wanted to.

I hoped we would trade him but my primary motivation for that is because he's a good player and with a d-core of him, weegar and adernson we will probably not be getting any top 5 picks.

He reminds me of a slightly better version of Brodie. Smooth skating two way guy that's not overly physical. He has a bit more offense and doesn't turn pucks over as much as Brodie.
I say this because i think Hanifin will follow a similar aging curve as Brodie.

He will be a useful player and worth his contract for most of it.
He will also keep this team from bottoming out which for many is a plus but for me is a minus.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by cannon7

You're not serious? Oh, you are? Well then.

Chychrun if certain CPers are to believed had not yet reached his prime. Oh, and he asked for a trade. Happens to small market teams. Just ask Zadorov. So there's that.

Shame Coyotes didn't lock up Kuemper long term. They could have had a 33 year old posting a .894SV%.

Dvorak is barely an NHLer. Is 7 points this season the kind of prime we we think should be retained?

Speaking of barely NHLers, Boedker isn't even one.

And Domi is circling the bowl.

Not helping your case, like, at all.

The fact they didn’t pan out for other teams is irrelevant. The suggestion was AZ never sold players hitting their prime at that age. They did. They were all guys looking to produce at the top of their game at that point in their careers.

[All In Good Time]

Bobby Orr………. Jesus

And

Jacques Plante was scared of the puck too

[Strange Brew]

I’d take one or two seasons of Bobby Orr in a Flames jersey over any draft pick.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I’d take one or two seasons of Bobby Orr in a Flames jersey over any draft pick.

He's almost 76 though, so minutes would have to be limited and managed.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by browna

He's almost 76 though, so minutes would have to be limited and managed.

I’d still take it.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Hahahaha...cool.

Now look at the career length of every other skating-style defenseman since then. Oh, and be sure to start when orthoscopic surgery became a regular method of dealing with joint injury to extend careers.

Bobby Orr...jesus ####ing christ. May as well have gone back to the 20's and mentioned a player that stopped playing because of polio. Apples to apples please.

I remember back in the Stone Age, I played D for the Cave Bears. My defence partner was a guy named Grog. Great player, skated like a deer, hit like a woolly mammoth.

One day, Grog's knee gave out. There were no trainers then, so I had to operate myself. I opened up his knee with a stone axe and did the best I could. Oddly enough, Grog was just never the same after that.

This story is as relevant to modern sports medicine as Bobby Orr's.

[stemit14]

I think most on here would be ok with signing Hanifin to the rumoured $7.5 million x 8 year deal that has apparently been on the table for months. I know there are some as well who would rather just trade him and start the full rebuild. I would be happy with either outcome.

But I wonder if the mentality of signing Hanifin now because he is young still and has lots of prime years left would change if the number changed in a last minute negotiation to $8.5 million AAV? At that point, is it just too much? For some on here, $7.5 million is too much. If he’s on the fence at this point still, and if Conroy really wants to sign him, that extra amount could get it done. Not sure how I would feel about it if that happened. It’s strange, but $7.5 million AAV seems pretty fair for both sides and should be what he would get on the open market IMO… but $8.5 million feels like it would be way too much even though it may not seem like that much more as far as AAV.

[Matty81]

The Athletic did a piece recently where they assessed "contract efficiency" based on their own net rating. Still very subjective but Hanifin's value was assessed at 6.1 million a season. He's a UFA and they always get a premium on top of fair value that balances out the underpaid entry level years, but I do think 8 million a year for him will never be considered a good value deal for the flames once its signed. It's not a terrible contract either, he should be productive throughout it and he could even play top pairing minutes for a team like the flames without any elite dmen.

I agree with you though that either outcome is OK. Flames get a key piece for a long time if he stays and they need someone to play those minutes, or a big haul if he's traded and better draft picks the next couple years as long as the Montreal deal doesn't backfire. I lean towards preferring to see him traded and a more aggressive rebuild generally as I don't think the retool approach is going to lead to a very strong team with the lack of higher end potential in the prospect cupboard. Locking him in probably means a slower less efficient rebuild of the team as far as collecting high end offensive talent. But I do think if him Tanev and Markstrom get traded at the deadline people are going to be shocked by how back the flames get defensively and they might be pretty tough to watch next year.

[SuperMatt18]

$6.5 would have been ideal for Hanifin, $7.0 would have been fine, and $7.5M is a slight overpay.

Anything over $7.5M and you should just walk though because he's not worth $8M.

[boogerz]

According to capfriendly, there's only 27 defensemen in the league with a $7.5M AAV or higher and 13 defensemen with an $8.5M AAV or higher.

Hanifin is good, but is he as good as $8.5M defensemen like Sergachev, Heiskanen, or Hamilton? I'd argue no, but then you also see players like Seth Jones @ $9.5M or Nurse @ $9.25M who Hanifin is definitely as good or better than. Then you also see players like Toews @ $7.25M and Lindholm/Weegar/Morrissey in that $6.5M range who are on the same level as Hanifin.


Hanifin's body of work suggests that he should be in that $6.5-8M range, but if he keeps playing like he has of late, someone will overpay for him in FA and throw $8M+ at him.

Also, if the Flames give $7.5-8M to Hanifin, are they going to have to give Andersson an equivalent AAV (or more with cap inflation) to get him to stay? Then you've got two #2D that are being paid like a #1D.


The Flames are better with Hanifin on the team, but $8M or more seems too steep no matter how you look at

[dino7c]

7.5 is not an overpay for Hanifin, especially with the cap going up

#1D will make way more, especially in the coming years

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by boogerz

According to capfriendly, there's only 27 defensemen in the league with a $7.5M AAV or higher and 13 defensemen with an $8.5M AAV or higher.

Hanifin is good, but is he as good as $8.5M defensemen like Sergachev, Heiskanen, or Hamilton? I'd argue no, but then you also see players like Seth Jones @ $9.5M or Nurse @ $9.25M who Hanifin is definitely as good or better than. Then you also see players like Toews @ $7.25M and Lindholm/Weegar/Morrissey in that $6.5M range who are on the same level as Hanifin.


Hanifin's body of work suggests that he should be in that $6.5-8M range, but if he keeps playing like he has of late, someone will overpay for him in FA and throw $8M+ at him.

Also, if the Flames give $7.5-8M to Hanifin, are they going to have to give Andersson an equivalent AAV to get him to stay? Then you've got two #2D that are being paid like a #1D.


The Flames are better with Hanifin on the team, but $8M or more seems too steep no matter how you look at

That’s a good point when considering Andersson in a couple years. I have used to think Lindholm was the deciding factor in the rebuild vs retool route… if you trade your #1 center then you’re pretty much forcing yourself to commit to a rebuild as you can’t really replace those guys very quickly or often. But honestly, Lindholm has not played like a #1 center since Gaudreau and Tkachuk left and what he brought to the team the last two seasons can be replaced more easily that what he used to bring. It’s a short sample but it even looks like it is being replaced by committee already within the team.

These days, I’m seeing Hanifin as more of the deciding factor in a rebuild. He keeps getting better and better it seems and he might be the flames best player as early as next season (if he signs an extension). If the flames trade Hanifin and Tanev this TDL and don’t sign either of them in the offseason, I think it will be the first time in a long time that you could say the flames were really weak on defence. That could be the biggest commitment to a rebuild IMO.

The one constant this team has had over most of the last 20 years has been good defencemen. It went from Leopold-Regehr-Warrener-Commodore to Phaneuf-Hamrlik-Regehr-Aucoin-Gio to Bouwmeister-Sarich-Regehr-Gio to Gio-Brodie-Wideman-Russell-Engelland to Gio-Brodie-Hamilton-Andersson-Stone to Andersson-Hanifin-Tanev-Kylington-Stone. I know not all of those teams lived up to having a dominant defensive core but they were all groups deep in good defensemen (I would take any of those defensive core over any combination the oilers have ever put together over that time).

The only exception in the last 20 years was when the team was forced into its rebuild in 2012-2013. At that point it was Gio-Brodie-Wideman and not much else for a couple years. If the flames follow suit and go into next season essentially with Andersson-Weegar-Kyllington as the only core defencemen, I think that will be a big step towards the team making next year their “bottoming out” in a rebuild. Having a deep defensive core can make even teams with little game-breaking talent up front into average teams that compete for playoffs to the end of the season.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by stemit14

The one constant this team has had over most of the last 20 years has been good defencemen. It went from Leopold-Conroy-Warrener-Commodore to Phaneuf-Hamrlik-Regehr-Aucoin-Gio to Bouwmeister-Sarich-Regehr-Gio to Gio-Brodie-Wideman-Russell-Engelland to Gio-Brodie-Hamilton-Andersson-Stone to Andersson-Hanifin-Tanev-Kylington-Stone. I know not all of those teams lived up to having a dominant defensive core but they were all groups deep in good defensemen (I would take any of those defensive core over any combination the oilers have ever put together over that time).

.

I’m sure it’s just a brain fart but Conroy played center. Lydman maybe?