Earth: Ctrl-Alt-Del

[FlamingLonghorn]

Ex-astronaut says NASA report on Earth-Asteroid collisions is flawed...


http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/200705...cGK9JXSmD737YB

The part I found interesting because I never even heard of this event:

In fact, next year is the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Siberia-smacking Tunguska event of a 45 to 50 meter diameter asteroid. "Had it hit a couple of hours later it might have wiped out London or Moscow...instead it wiped out 2,000 square kilometers of Siberia forest and maybe a few reindeer," Schweickart observed.

I had no idea we had an asteroid impact of that large in recent times.

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by Sowa

The part I found interesting because I never even heard of this event

You need to watch more discovery channel

Seriously though, this is a fairly decent threat to life as we know it on earth. I would say it is more of a threat than global warming. In the sense that the earth has been and will be impacted by asteriods. Its just a matter of when this will happen.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by arsenal

You need to watch more discovery channel

Seriously though, this is a fairly decent threat to life as we know it on earth. I would say it is more of a threat than global warming. In the sense that the earth has been and will be impacted by asteriods. Its just a matter of when this will happen.

Bruce Willis will save us.

[CaptainCrunch]

I remember when I was growing up the theory was that Tunguska was flattened by a piece of anti-matter.

But there was always the theory that a UFO crashed there.

[ken0042]

I love when they talk about an asteroid hitting a major city like London or Moscow. Or in movies like Armageddon where every time an asteroid made an impact; it was in a major city.

Fact is the Earth is 70% water. So odds are it will hit the ocean. (Not that hitting the ocean won't cause damage.) Then look at how big Antarctica is- bigger than europe. Then factor in all the unpopulated areas of the world; the 2000 km2 means it left a crater 50 km in diameter. There's places in souther Alberta where it could hit and not cause too much damage.

I'm not saying this isn't something that should be taken lightly. I just hate it when they try and scare us with "what if it hits a major city."

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I remember when I was growing up the theory was that Tunguska was flattened by a piece of anti-matter.

But there was always the theory that a UFO crashed there.

The UFO seemed like a pretty prevalent theory for a long time, sometimes combined with the thought it was a nuclear explosion.

[JimmytheT]

Originally Posted by Sowa

Ex-astronaut says NASA report on Earth-Asteroid collisions is flawed...


http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/200705...cGK9JXSmD737YB

The part I found interesting because I never even heard of this event:



I had no idea we had an asteroid impact of that large in recent times.

Actually the evidence heavily supports the theory that it was a large comet that exploded just before it would have made contact with the earth, because there was no rocky asteroid debris or large crater at the center of the explosion.

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by ken0042

I love when they talk about an asteroid hitting a major city like London or Moscow. Or in movies like Armageddon where every time an asteroid made an impact; it was in a major city.

Fact is the Earth is 70% water. So odds are it will hit the ocean. (Not that hitting the ocean won't cause damage.) Then look at how big Antarctica is- bigger than europe. Then factor in all the unpopulated areas of the world; the 2000 km2 means it left a crater 50 km in diameter. There's places in souther Alberta where it could hit and not cause too much damage.

I'm not saying this isn't something that should be taken lightly. I just hate it when they try and scare us with "what if it hits a major city."

If it is large enough, it wont matter where it hits, bye bye earth.

[CaptainCrunch]

I remember watching a show on the discovery channel that ran a computer simulation of various sized asteroids hiting the earth in different locations and the concensus was that a water strike was actually worse because of the super waves that it would create.

But one thing was certain, anything bigger then a greyhound bus hitting the earth would be potentially devestating.

As the years go on, the odds of an asteroid or other object not hitting us shrinks at an incredible rate.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I remember watching a show on the discovery channel that ran a computer simulation of various sized asteroids hiting the earth in different locations and the concensus was that a water strike was actually worse because of the super waves that it would create.

But one thing was certain, anything bigger then a greyhound bus hitting the earth would be potentially devestating.

As the years go on, the odds of an asteroid or other object not hitting us shrinks at an incredible rate.

The odds don't shrink at all, they stay exactly the same every year. They are indepedant events. Just because we didn't get hit by a once in a million year size rock this year doesn't mean our chances of getting hit by one next year are greater. Our chance of getting hit by a once in a million year size rock on any given year are exacty....1 in 1000000, regardless of how long ago the last one hit.

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

The odds don't shrink at all, they stay exactly the same every year. They are indepedant events. Just because we didn't get hit by a once in a million year size rock this year doesn't mean our chances of getting hit by one next year are greater. Our chance of getting hit by a once in a million year size rock on any given year are exacty....1 in 1000000, regardless of how long ago the last one hit.

It's not like playing the lottery. Objects in space have an orbit, and a path. It's only a matter of time until a NEO and Earth's path's cross. If you can find the path of a NEO, you can then calculate if and when that object and earth's paths will cross (given that nothing deviates that objects orbit).

[troutman]

Isn't the latest Tunguska theory that a comet exploded in the atmosphere, not an asteroid hitting the ground?

http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...ry_011031.html

The researchers say the event was likely caused by a low-density asteroid that exploded in the atmosphere, sending out a firestorm that burned trees and a shock wave that did more damage, according to a story on the BBC's web site. The explosion was equal to more than 10 million tons of TNT, the researchers say.


http://www.planetary.org/programs/pr...steroid_alert/

The Planetary Society is helping plan an effective response to asteroid threats via our support of the B612 Foundation -- a recently created organization exclusively dedicated to this important work.

The Asteroid Impact Mapping System is a way of making the threats "real". Since, the corridors typically cross national boundaries, this system will also vividly show how this is a truly global danger requiring international coordination.

[worth]

The earth is pelted every day from asteroids and comets. This is nothing new. The difference will be when one of a significant size hits. You can all thank Jupiter for your lives, as we wouldn't be here without it. It takes the brunt of hurtling objects in the solar system of all the planets.

And it's just a matter of time before any number of things happen. Just a matter of time before the Sun explodes. Just a matter of time before our galaxy and Andromeda collide. I suppose you could argue that we could all be wiped out tomrrow, but our sun won't die out for a few billion more years, which is true, but is there really any sense in worrying about it?

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by arsenal

It's not like playing the lottery. Objects in space have an orbit, and a path. It's only a matter of time until a NEO and Earth's path's cross. If you can find the path of a NEO, you can then calculate if and when that object and earth's paths will cross (given that nothing deviates that objects orbit).

Okay,
But based on a few assumptions:

1) we don't know about the vast majority of the objects in our solar system
2) we don't know about their orbits
3) The are relatively randomly arranged

then we can treat it as any other random event.
On aveage a object of X size hits the earth every 1000000 years.
So the chances of one hitting this year are 1 in 1000000, regardless of how long it's been since the last one hit.

[Burninator]

Originally Posted by worth

The earth is pelted every day from asteroids and comets. This is nothing new. The difference will be when one of a significant size hits. You can all thank Jupiter for your lives, as we wouldn't be here without it. It takes the brunt of hurtling objects in the solar system of all the planets.

And it's just a matter of time before any number of things happen. Just a matter of time before the Sun explodes. Just a matter of time before our galaxy and Andromeda collide. I suppose you could argue that we could all be wiped out tomrrow, but our sun won't die out for a few billion more years, which is true, but is there really any sense in worrying about it?

Perhaps I misread your post, but it sounds like you are saying that it's just a matter of time before we get wiped out so we shouldn't bother trying to stop the inevitable. But if we have the technology and knowledge to stop a potentially existence ending asteroid why not employ that measure?

[TheyCallMeBruce]

Personally, I think the one natural disaster that I am most concern about, and will most likely wipe us out is a supervolcano going off...namely the one in Yellowstone national park.

[worth]

Originally Posted by Burninator

Perhaps I misread your post, but it sounds like you are saying that it's just a matter of time before we get wiped out so we shouldn't bother trying to stop the inevitable. But if we have the technology and knowledge to stop a potentially existence ending asteroid why not employ that measure?

I can agree with that. But that technology certainly isn't there yet. They can only track a fraction of the debris in space that could come in contact with earth. There's no sense in worrying about something we currently have no control over. And really what I was referring to was the individual. I mean, most of us here won't have any specific involvement in averting a life ending collision, and there's not much any of us can specifically do, so there's no real point in worrying about it when we wake up in the morning.

[Locke]

Good old Jupiter, always taking one for the team.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by ken0042

I love when they talk about an asteroid hitting a major city like London or Moscow. Or in movies like Armageddon where every time an asteroid made an impact; it was in a major city.

Fact is the Earth is 70% water. So odds are it will hit the ocean. (Not that hitting the ocean won't cause damage.) Then look at how big Antarctica is- bigger than europe. Then factor in all the unpopulated areas of the world; the 2000 km2 means it left a crater 50 km in diameter. There's places in souther Alberta where it could hit and not cause too much damage.

I'm not saying this isn't something that should be taken lightly. I just hate it when they try and scare us with "what if it hits a major city."

Media sensationalism at its finest. The impact of an asteroid hitting the ocean would be far more devastating than if it hit a city.

But, like several posts have said - an impact, regardless of location, isnt a good thing.

[alltherage]

Originally Posted by arsenal

You need to watch more discovery channel

Seriously though, this is a fairly decent threat to life as we know it on earth. I would say it is more of a threat than global warming. In the sense that the earth has been and will be impacted by asteriods. Its just a matter of when this will happen.

Global warming is 100% inevitable unless we do something.