Like I said, they rank Chicago and San Jose the same as actual hockey teams that win the odd game
Edmonton has played SJ and Chicago 5 times already
I don't think it does.
It looks at combined points percentage in most models - which would factor in the individual strength of each team.
Just because it shows them as the same under "easiest opponents" doesn't meant the underlying model isn't factoring in the relative strength of the individual opponents.
And that's a totally reasonable expectation, but that's also the difficult thing when evaluating this specific player and his circumstances here though. Jonathan Huberdeau more so than probably any other "star" player in this league almost exclusively relies on his playmaking abilities to produce.. whether or not his teammates finish those opportunities really isn't on him. He has an uncanny ability of finding passing lanes that most players quite frankly don't even recognize. I see ton's of criticism's that he's not a Nathan Mackinnon type "play driver" but he never has been and anyone who had ever watched him knew that. Does that make him more of a complimentary piece in the most simple sense? Sure, but a playmaker needs finishing talent. That much is known. No forward on this team is on the ice for more scoring chances for per 60 than Huberdeau is. That says something.
Are there any stats on how many of Huberdeau's passes actually connect? It seems like most of them never get through. Jamie McLennan was on Barn Burner the other day and mentioned the same thing. He tries to pass through four players and they mostly get picked off or blocked, and often results in a chance against. It's something that worked for him in the past, but as players get older, quite often things that used to work, stop working, and it's up to the player to adapt. Recognizing those lanes and then making pass requires absolute precision timing. If his reflexes have slowed even a tiny fraction, I can see how it won't work any more, at least consistently.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Flames currently sit tied with Montreal for 8th worst in the NHL with 37 points.
Below them are Minnesota (36 pts), Buffalo (34), Columbus (32) and Ottawa (28). Ottawa seems out of reach, but somehow they still have 5 games in hand on the Flames. What makes this grouping interesting is that you can call them all "finished rebuilds" - teams that are trying to get out of the basement. Flames are competitive with this tier of teams. How many of these teams - all very close in standings - are going to be selling their #1 centre, two of their top 4 defencemen, and also possibly more players if offers present themselves? Those teams have basically all sold their old core, built a new core, and are trying to complement them now. Sure, they might sell some peripheral players that they may not re-sign, but for the most part, they are in the 'building back up' stage, not the 'tearing it down' stage.
I doubt that Anaheim has it in them to go on a run and catch the Flames, and they are likely to finish above Chicago and San Jose. The way I see it at the draft (ignoring the lottery) is:
1st overall - battle between Chicago and San Jose
3rd overall - Anaheim
4th overall - Flames
5th overall - ??
Those are the 'tiers' at this point. A prolonged losing streak or winning streak can definitely change things, but I would feel comfortable in assuming that by the end of the season, this is more or less what we see. Only the current bottom 3 teams are 'out of reach', and the rest are all trying to build up and give their fanbases some optimism for next season. There is only so many high picks you can draft before your fanbase grows impatient, and these teams need to appease their fans and sell tickets for next season. They aren't as interested in once again drafting a high pick as much as they are in showing their fanbase that they have taken a step to try and increase excitement for next season.
That's why I have those teams passing the Flames. They are close right now, plus they are the only team in that area that are going to become worse. Tanev + Hanifin out is a whole lot more turnovers. If any of the Markstrom rumours end up in fruition, then we can start having conversations about catching Anaheim - still doubt it, but no defence and no clear starter should equal falling off a cliff.
Plus, I believe the lottery (g)odds will be with us this year as long as we are in the bottom third of the league.
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Like I said, they rank Chicago and San Jose the same as actual hockey teams that win the odd game
Edmonton has played SJ and Chicago 5 times already
Not suggesting it's guaranteed wins but come on now...Flames December schedule was harder than anything those team will deal with and they were over .500
One site literally does an overall average of every team each team plays in terms of standing.
They are evaluating crap teams as 30-32nd in that average.
Are there any stats on how many of Huberdeau's passes actually connect? It seems like most of them never get through. Jamie McLennan was on Barn Burner the other day and mentioned the same thing. He tries to pass through four players and they mostly get picked off or blocked, and often results in a chance against. It's something that worked for him in the past, but as players get older, quite often things that used to work, stop working, and it's up to the player to adapt. Recognizing those lanes and then making pass requires absolute precision timing. If his reflexes have slowed even a tiny fraction, I can see how it won't work any more, at least consistently.
When he's struggling he forces things and they don't work for sure.
Lately though they're getting through, and his teammates aren't finishing.
He could have had 6-8 points in the last three games.
One site literally does an overall average of every team each team plays in terms of standing.
They are evaluating crap teams as 30-32nd in that average.
Yeah and the Flames having the 24th worst record in the league itself would also be a factor...since the models would see the games against the Flames as being easier based on SoS and lowering their schedule.
I think the stat that supports Dino7C's point more is that the Flames are seen as having the 2nd hardest record in the NHL so far (behind only the Sharks) in one of those models.
So based on that you might think they have some upside because being .500 having played a tougher than average schedule might be seen as good.
None of these model's factor in home/road split though, and back to backs to that's lacking too.
For example the Oilers are also seen as having a tough schedule so far but they've played very few back to backs, have gotten tired teams a lot of the time so far, and lots of backups.
At 2:49, he compared how Huberdeau’s flat footedness is hurting his game in comparison to Mackinnon who uses his skating to create separation without the puck to generate better scoring chances
Why in the world would you compare Mackinnon and Huberdeau? At his best Huberdeau’s game was entirely different. I guess you could better compare him with a slower guy like Tkachuk. It’s not like Huberdeau was fast and now isn’t.
Hopefully he keeps it up but he's been creating chances on the ice at 5v5 for pretty much the entire 12 game pointless streak and the last 2 games now where he has points.
He's paid for production so the puck has to go in, but even during the pointless streak there were signs the offensive play was coming.
God this team could use a few more good players.
__________________ ”All you have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to you.”
Why in the world would you compare Mackinnon and Huberdeau? At his best Huberdeau’s game was entirely different. I guess you could better compare him with a slower guy like Tkachuk. It’s not like Huberdeau was fast and now isn’t.
He wasn't. He just used Huberdeau as an example of someone who tends to receive a pass standing still, vs MacKinnon, who accelerates into the pass. Jos point was absolutely on the mark, and Huberdeau was a good example of the opposite.
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Why in the world would you compare Mackinnon and Huberdeau? At his best Huberdeau’s game was entirely different. I guess you could better compare him with a slower guy like Tkachuk. It’s not like Huberdeau was fast and now isn’t.
Huberdeau’s skating isn’t one of his assets. He has a very unusual skating style. He almost hops around the ice at times.
He wasn't. He just used Huberdeau as an example of someone who tends to receive a pass standing still, vs MacKinnon, who accelerates into the pass. Jos point was absolutely on the mark, and Huberdeau was a good example of the opposite.
So the point is guys who skate well are better at moving defenders back than guys who don't? Well, OK, but that's not exactly news or high level analysis.
There's not many guys like Mackinnon in the league.
So the point is guys who skate well are better at moving defenders back than guys who don't? Well, OK, but that's not exactly news or high level analysis.
There's not many guys like Mackinnon in the league.
No, that wasn't the point at all. Did you watch the video? The point was that MacKinnon, more than any other palyer, anticipates the play and powers into a pass, better than anyone. He turns his speed on BEFORE the play starts, and that gives him a big advantage.
Huberdeau was simply used as an example of what it looks like, and how much easier it is to defend, when someone takes a pass standing still (or not at full speed), vs MacKinnon, who is already blowing by the defender, the moment he gets the puck.
It was about his playing style, and the way he utilizes his speed as a weapon, not just about him being a great skater (which he obviously is)
No, that wasn't the point at all. Did you watch the video? The point was that MacKinnon, more than any other palyer, anticipates the play and powers into a pass, better than anyone. He turns his speed on BEFORE the play starts, and that gives him a big advantage.
Huberdeau was simply used as an example of what it looks like, and how much easier it is to defend, when someone takes a pass standing still (or not at full speed), vs MacKinnon, who is already blowing by the defender, the moment he gets the puck.
It was about his playing style, and the way he utilizes his speed as a weapon, not just about him being a great skater (which he obviously is)
I did watch it - I just don't think Huberdeau is the correct contrast, because he doesn't have speed to turn on. Apples and oranges. Easy pickings.
The correct contrast would be a guy who has speed but doesn't use it effectively like Mackinnon. Or a slower player who nonetheless uses anticipation to get up to speed more effectively than Huberdeau.
EDIT: This is not to say that Huberdeau wouldn't benefit from taking passes in stride more often. I actually think he's been done a little dirty on the clips. He quite often takes pucks while skating, just not at anywhere near the tempo. Also, I think Huberdeau has been trying very hard not to cheat on offence, especially given the fact he was on a defensive line for most of this year.
