2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If you look at 6th overall, there is a huge drop off in the odds of getting a star

Franchise Player: Tkachuk (16), Seider (19) 12.5%
Top Pair/1st Line: Zibanejad (11), H Lindholm (12), Monahan (13) 18.75%
2nd Pair/Top 6: Brassard (06), Gagner (07), OEL (09), Zacha (15) 25%
3rd Line/5th D: Glass (17) 6.25%
Bust/Depth: Montoya (04), Brule (05), Filatov (08), Connolly (10), Virtanen (14), Zadina (18) 37.5%

The odds of a bust goes up dramatically when you drop out of the top 5 of the draft. IMO if you're not committing to getting a top 5 pick you better draft well or you're just wasting a season for nothing. If we don't commit to the top 5, we need to draft well and hopefully add some good picks and prospects.

That's true, but I'm not going to be the one to complain about how the 6th overall picks worked out for CGY.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I’m sure they would love Andersson, but they have zero cap room.

Byfield would be untouchable for them. Not sure about Clarke.

But they’ll need to save cap in the coming years, so ready prospects are likely not going to be moved.

I agree on Byfield but their cap isn't that bad and adding a Rasmus Anderson with salary retained also helps them manage the cap. He would be very under paid if we retained salary, already is under paid.

Byfield is the only RFA that is going to get paid. Cap should increase big 2 years in a row maybe 3 by the latest projections. Ras would fit in great with that team.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

L.A. is poised for a Cup run this year I think. Think they need to add defense depth and an insurance policy in goal. I know Markstrom was suggested here but not sure if some thing can get done there or not.

Is there a scenario where retention on Andersson gets you Clarke or Byfield?

That makes for close to the best top 4 in the league that can eat a ton of minutes locked in for 2 more after this year.

Have you seen talbots numbers? why in the world would they trade byfield or clarke

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

For elite players or just good? OK

Bobby Clarke
Ryan Getzlaf
Kaith Tkachuk
Robyn Regher
Michel Goulet
Larry Robinson
Marty Brodeur
Andre Vasilevsky
Brent Burns
Naslund
Tarasenko
Hertl



can I start at 15 and add Sakic and Macinnis?

You have to go back 50 yrs?

The point is top 5 gets you substantial odd of getting a top line player.

Of course you can pile up 4th round and hope for Johnny Gaudreau or Kucherov

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

That's true, but I'm not going to be the one to complain about how the 6th overall picks worked out for CGY.

Flames did well at 6 and they moved down that lottery, but most years the most overrated spot to pick in the draft is the 6-10 spots. Likelihood of getting a star is not any better than 11-15 spots. Flames are looking like they are drafting 6-10 this year as they just won't commit to top 5, more focused on return on their players. Still hoping we get good returns and still sneak in the bottom 5, but it isn't looking good.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Flames did well at 6 and they moved down that lottery, but most years the most overrated spot to pick in the draft is the 6-10 spots. Likelihood of getting a star is not any better than 11-15 spots. Flames are looking like they are drafting 6-10 this year as they just won't commit to top 5, more focused on return on their players. Still hoping we get good returns and still sneak in the bottom 5, but it isn't looking good.

Then trade down and get more picks?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Flames did well at 6 and they moved down that lottery, but most years the most overrated spot to pick in the draft is the 6-10 spots. Likelihood of getting a star is not any better than 11-15 spots. Flames are looking like they are drafting 6-10 this year as they just won't commit to top 5, more focused on return on their players. Still hoping we get good returns and still sneak in the bottom 5, but it isn't looking good.

I think it's going to be hard to out-suck SJ, Chicago and Anaheim.
Seattle and CBJ though - maybe.
With Tanev now out, the blueline is pretty bad. So this could be a long losing streak.
Or how about we just win the ####ing lottery for once.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think it's going to be hard to out-suck SJ, Chicago and Anaheim.
Seattle and CBJ though - maybe.
With Tanev now out, the blueline is pretty bad. So this could be a long losing streak.
Or how about we just win the ####ing lottery for once.

I agree. Columbus and Seattle could get going and pass us. 4th OV is best case scenario and hopefully for once our name gets pulled. It would dramatically change the future of this team.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Flames did well at 6 and they moved down that lottery, but most years the most overrated spot to pick in the draft is the 6-10 spots. Likelihood of getting a star is not any better than 11-15 spots. Flames are looking like they are drafting 6-10 this year as they just won't commit to top 5, more focused on return on their players. Still hoping we get good returns and still sneak in the bottom 5, but it isn't looking good.

The blue line will get them to a bottom five finish barring some miracle turnaround from Huberdeau and Kylington.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Then trade down and get more picks?

Sure, but how often does that happen? Most teams in the 11-15 ranges aren't paying to move up to 6-10. Do you have examples of where it happened, and the return was worth it?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Sure, but how often does that happen? Most teams in the 11-15 ranges aren't paying to move up to 6-10. Do you have examples of where it happened, and the return was worth it?

No, but I sure would have done it last year. Michkov? Danielson? I don't think there's anything Conroy could have traded to get those picks.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I wanted to add to the top 5 pick discussion, so here's the draft pick summary from 2004-2019.

You can argue that I miscategorized a couple of players, but this is just to give the general idea of the types of players we can get with each top 5 pick and the probability for each tier.

1. 1st overall:
   • Franchise Players (56%): Ovechkin(04), Crosby(05), P. Kane(07), Stamkos(08), MacKinnon(13), McDavid(15), Matthews(16), Dahlin(18), Hughes(19)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Tavares(09), Hall(10), Ekblad(14), Hischier(17)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (13%): E. Johnson(06), RNH(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (0%):
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Yakupov(12)
2. 2nd overall:
   • Franchise Players (31%): Malkin(04), Doughty(08), Hedman(09), Barkov(13), Eichel(15)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Seguin(10), Landeskog(11), S. Reinhart(14), Svechnikov(18)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (19%): J. Staal(06), JVR(07), Laine(16)
   • 3rd line/5th D (19%): B. Ryan(05), R. Murray(12), Kaapo(19)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): N. Patrick(17)
3. 3rd overall:
   • Franchise Players (19%): J. Toews(06), Draisaitl(14), Heiskanen(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): Duchene(09), Huberdeau(11)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): J. Johnson(05), Bogosian(08), Strome(15), PLD(16), Kotkaniemi(18), Dach(19)
   • 3rd line/5th D (25%): Turris(07), Gudbranson(10), Galchenyuk(12), Drouin(13)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Barker(04)
4. 4th overall:
   • Franchise Players (25%): Backstrom(06), Pietrangelo(08), Marner(15) Makar(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): B. Tkachuk(18), Byram(19)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): Ladd(04), E. Kane(09), R. Johansen (10), Larsson(11), S. Jones(13), Bennett(14)
   • 3rd line/5th D (6%): Hickey(07)
   • Bust/Depth (19%): Pouliot(05), G. Reinhart(12), Puljujarvi(16)
   
   
5. 5th overall:
   • Franchise Players (13%): Price(05), Pettersson(17)
   • Top pair/First line (40%): Wheeler(04), Kessel(06), B. Schenn(09), M. Rielly(12), E. Lindholm(13), Hanifin(15)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (20%): Alzner(07), Niederreiter(10), R. Strome(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (13%): L. Schenn(08), Hayton(18)
   • Bust/Depth (13%): Dal Colle(14), Juolevi(16)
   • Not enough NHL games so far to even speculate: Turcotte(19)

Feel free to move players around between the categories if you think I got some of them wrong, but that's a good starting point. For example both Marner and Backstrom could be considered 1st liners, Hanifin a 2nd pairing D etc.

Really cool, thanks for putting in the effort on that. Really shows the importance of dropping down to bottom five if you know your season is a write off. Do that three years and you're likely to walk away with two really great players and a good shot at a franchise player.

And that's the ONLY way a team like Calgary is getting that elite talent. And when that potentially elite players is looking to project and up for an RFA contract you sell him hard on 8 years and don't try to save AAV by going less.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I agree on Byfield but their cap isn't that bad and adding a Rasmus Anderson with salary retained also helps them manage the cap. He would be very under paid if we retained salary, already is under paid.

Byfield is the only RFA that is going to get paid. Cap should increase big 2 years in a row maybe 3 by the latest projections. Ras would fit in great with that team.

They have zero cap space right now.

If Calgary retains on Andersson for this and the next two years, it affects their ability to retain on all their UFA’s.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They have zero cap space right now.

If Calgary retains on Andersson for this and the next two years, it affects their ability to retain on all their UFA’s.

Agree, but in my opinion you should use retainer spots where you can add the most value. Adding it to a contract like Andersson’s, which is already amazing value, would significantly increase the quality of your return over using it on Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tanev. If Rasmus was available at 50% retained, that is how you obtain your blue chip 1st line center or top defender.

But Sec stated he isn’t moving anywhere.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

Agree, but in my opinion you should use retainer spots where you can add the most value. Adding it to a contract like Andersson’s, which is already amazing value, would significantly increase the quality of your return over using it on Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tanev. If Rasmus was available at 50% retained, that is how you obtain your blue chip 1st line center or top defender.

But Sec stated he isn’t moving anywhere.

And rightly so. The Flames are not finishing out the season with one experienced NHL-quality defenceman.

And as The Cobra points out, retaining salary for three years is a much bigger opportunity cost than retaining on an expiring contract.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

Agree, but in my opinion you should use retainer spots where you can add the most value. Adding it to a contract like Andersson’s, which is already amazing value, would significantly increase the quality of your return over using it on Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tanev. If Rasmus was available at 50% retained, that is how you obtain your blue chip 1st line center or top defender.

But Sec stated he isn’t moving anywhere.

No one's doing that. Which team that has a blue chip 1st line center or top defender makes that deal? If you had a blue chip 1st line center or top defender, would you trade them for 2 years of Andersson at $2.xx million?

Is Anaheim trading Carlsson for 2 years of Andersson at $2.xx million?

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by butterfly

No one's doing that. Which team that has a blue chip 1st line center or top defender makes that deal? If you had a blue chip 1st line center or top defender, would you trade them for 2 years of Andersson at $2.xx million?

Is Anaheim trading Carlsson for 2 years of Andersson at $2.xx million?

I think if it’s a team that thinks they are knocking on the door prior to the TDL and there is a such prospects or young roster player that makes sense, it is quite possible.

Hence why I mentioned Byfield, Clarke.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

I think if it’s a team that thinks they are knocking on the door prior to the TDL and there is a such prospects or young roster player that makes sense, it is quite possible.

Hence why I mentioned Byfield, Clarke.

Byfield is just becoming the player everyone imagined he could and would be.

He doesn’t make sense on any level for LA.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

I think if it’s a team that thinks they are knocking on the door prior to the TDL and there is a such prospects or young roster player that makes sense, it is quite possible.

Hence why I mentioned Byfield, Clarke.

Byfield is a big reason why they are knocking on the door and if you had Clarke, why would you trade him for Andersson? They could use help on D but why not pay less for Tanev or Hanifin and just be done with it?

Turcotte I could see, but Los Angeles has no way to make the cap work. They still have to deal with Arvidsson's situation and they don't have any Lucic contracts.

[Moneyhands23]

Bayfield is becoming a great player. L.A is a terrifying team.