[Game Takes] Canucks 4 Flames 3

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's a good question!

You would think it would still come from probability, but do they have probabilities with an empty net? Do you take into account that the shot was going wide?

If they don't take into account probabilities for empty netters than a shot from there would be worth basically zero for expected goals.

If there is no goalie then a shot in net must have an expected goal of 1. I'm pretty sure when looking during the game I've seen big leaps in XG% for the team scoring an EN goal.

It would mean last night that Markstrom allowed 3 goals on 2.63 expected goals. He is 24 of the 32 GSAA of the 32 goalies who have played 11 games or more on Natural Stat trick.

He's been average, or maybe slightly below average among the best 32 goalies.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

If there is no goalie then a shot in net must have an expected goal of 1. I'm pretty sure when looking during the game I've seen big leaps in XG% for the team scoring an EN goal.

It would mean last night that Markstrom allowed 3 goals on 2.63 expected goals. He is 24 of the 32 GSAA of the 32 goalies who have played 11 games or more on Natural Stat trick.

He's been average, or maybe slightly below average among the best 32 goalies.

If you're correct than agreed.

Don't think that's the case though.

[Spurs]

Dan Vladar's numbers are bad he is winning games because the other team gives up more goals not because he plays well.

Without looking at every game he played is it not possible with how few games it is that he is also benefitting from playing more weak teams and back-up goalies than Markstrom?

Is there an example of a goalie with numbers as bad as his being successful as a #1 guy?

[Enoch Root]

As for the defensemen, taking Zadorov out of the lineup, and inserting a #7, #8 guy, is going to weaken the blueline. Full stop. That isn't a debatable issue.

The 3rd pair was bad last night.

And when Tanev is moved, our D is going to fall off a cliff. Kylington would be a nice addition, for sure. And it's a good bet that there will be defensemen added, in the coming trades. None the less, there is going to be a significant dropoff defensively, for a while, before it gets built back up again.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If you're correct than agreed.

Don't think that's the case though.

Someone smarter than me will need to figure it out.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It wasn't meant as a shot.

You are just using win / loss records and stopping there. Not saying you haven't or won't go deeper, but in this case you're not.

And how is a simple win / loss record in a team game not flawed in evaluating goaltending?

Not stopping there. Just saying the other stats aren't aligning with results, and haven't for two years. So I am dismissing them, in this case.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I never argued he wasn't their 5th best dman, accept what? I don't think he moved the needle much.

"won't end well"

lol they were under .500 with Zadorov in the lineup, it already wasn't ending well.

you are dancing around it...I think they are better in the 20 without Zadorov than they were in the 20 with him and you don't. That's fine.

they are .500 right now lets see

You have an agenda.

Everything rosey in Flames land at all times.

That's dancing.

I'm suggesting some simple facts.

1. The Flames are worse off with their 5th defenseman traded with no roster add.
2. The team is sheltering the fourth line even more than they have in the past which proves #1
3. They are getting filled in more than pairings that had Zadorov were which justifies #2
4. They are now upping the ice time of their top four to compensate for #1, #2 and #3
5. They can't do that indefinitely.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As for the defensemen, taking Zadorov out of the lineup, and inserting a #7, #8 guy, is going to weaken the blueline. Full stop. That isn't a debatable issue.

The 3rd pair was bad last night.

And when Tanev is moved, our D is going to fall off a cliff. Kylington would be a nice addition, for sure. And it's a good bet that there will be defensemen added, in the coming trades. None the less, there is going to be a significant dropoff defensively, for a while, before it gets built back up again.

The debatable issue is if the team is actually much worse overall if at all

you guys can high five and say how dumb I am...lets see the results. The Zadorov Flames were under .500.

the no Zadorov Flames are .500

I think the 3rd pairing was playing too much because it was a supposed strength when they were just alright.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Not stopping there. Just saying the other stats aren't aligning with results, and haven't for two years. So I am dismissing them, in this case.

So you're saying ...

Vladar is winning games and is therefore the better goaltender because his teammates score goals at a higher percentage when he's in net.

I mean I honestly can't defend that. I don't see that as a correlation, but it doesn't mean you can't.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Spurs

Dan Vladar's numbers are bad he is winning games because the other team gives up more goals not because he plays well.

Without looking at every game he played is it not possible with how few games it is that he is also benefitting from playing more weak teams and back-up goalies than Markstrom?

Is there an example of a goalie with numbers as bad as his being successful as a #1 guy?

Nope. Non starter

It is the opposite. Markstrom last year got most of the easy opponents within his set of games, the Flames very much did not shelter Vladar

This analysis has been done and posted on this site

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You have an agenda.

Everything rosey in Flames land at all times.

That's dancing.

I'm suggesting some simple facts.

1. The Flames are worse off with their 5th defenseman traded with no roster add.
2. The team is sheltering the fourth line even more than they have in the past which proves #1
3. They are getting filled in more than pairings that had Zadorov were which justifies #2
4. They are now upping the ice time of their top four to compensate for #1, #2 and #3
5. They can't do that indefinitely.

And if they are better over the next 20 games? Are you willing to admit they weren't worse off?

or will the 3rd pairing fancy stats trump the teams record?

I would say they will be better for the rest of the year but obviously if they trade their actual important dman that is gonna change

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The debatable issue is if the team is actually much worse overall if at all

you guys can high five and say how dumb I am...lets see the results. The Zadorov Flames were under .500.

the no Zadorov Flames are .500

I think the 3rd pairing was playing too much because it was a supposed strength when they were just alright.

Zadorov and DeSimone were a 57% defense pairing.

Now we have a 25% pairing and a coach afraid to play them more than 8 minutes.

Can't believe there is anything left to argue about in this case.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You have an agenda.

Everything rosey in Flames land at all times.

That's dancing.

I'm suggesting some simple facts.

1. The Flames are worse off with their 5th defenseman traded with no roster add.
2. The team is sheltering the fourth line even more than they have in the past which proves #1
3. They are getting filled in more than pairings that had Zadorov were which justifies #2
4. They are now upping the ice time of their top four to compensate for #1, #2 and #3
5. They can't do that indefinitely.

Just you wait until Mark ####ing Pysyk comes up!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Zadorov and DeSimone were a 57% defense pairing.

Now we have a 25% pairing and a coach afraid to play them more than 8 minutes.

Can't believe there is anything left to argue about in this case.

nice fancy stats

team has a better record without Zadorov than with him

lets so how long that lasts

for the 1000th time I'm not saying the third pairing has improved

also, quality of opponent in the Zadorovless games factors into your stats. I doubt the Wild cave them in as bad.

you still won't answer the question...IF the Flames are better in the next 20 are you willing to admit they didn't miss Zadorov that much?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

And if they are better over the next 20 games? Are you willing to admit they weren't worse off?

or will the 3rd pairing fancy stats trump the teams record?

I would say they will be better for the rest of the year but obviously if they trade their actual important dman that is gonna change

You understand they can improve ffor different reasons, right? It's a team game.

The current discussion is about whether removing a player (Zadorov), and inserting a #8 (Oesterle / Solovyov) will have an impact on the quality of the defense.

It is obtuse to argue it wouldn't.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

And if they are better over the next 20 games? Are you willing to admit they weren't worse off?

or will the 3rd pairing fancy stats trump the teams record?

It doesn't work like that.

If they are better in their next 20 games it won't be because this new putrid third pairing is the difference, nor better than a third pairing that would have had Zadorov in it.

They just won more games ... guys on heaters, good goaltending, some bounces. The team's best players playing well.

But to be fair when or if they do lose more I also won't say it was all on losing Zadorov as he was only a third pairing guy and wouldn't have been the driving force in losing.

The Flames were an unlucky team in their first ten games (October) by most measures. They were a lucky team in the next 12 by the same measure. That likely evens out, which means they slide from their current good streak, but it won't only be because Zadorov is gone.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by dino7c

nice fancy stats

team has a better record without Zadorov than with him

lets so how long that lasts

for the 1000th time I'm not saying the third pairing has improved

also, quality of opponent in the Zadorovless games factors into your stats. I doubt the Wild cave them in as bad.

you still won't answer the question...IF the Flames are better in the next 20 are you willing to admit they didn't miss Zadorov that much?

Will the next 20 games also include adapting to a new head coach and system?

[dino7c]

okay so no you aren't

MASSIVE HOLE!

team plays better and wins more...maybe just maybe the hole wasn't all that massive IMO

If the loss is that big they should really just throw in the towel now.

as good as a 5th defenseman is I personally don't think they move the needle much in terms of wins and losses, that is all.

I also don't think he was as good as some seem to...better than Osterle yes, but I feel he is greatly over rated.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If you're correct than agreed.

Don't think that's the case though.

Can't find the game breakdown on NST, but amoneypuck shows Demko with 3.24 XGA and Markstrom with 3.09 XGA.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

nice fancy stats

team has a better record without Zadorov than with him

lets so how long that lasts

for the 1000th time I'm not saying the third pairing has improved

also, quality of opponent in the Zadorovless games factors into your stats. I doubt the Wild cave them in as bad.

you still won't answer the question...IF the Flames are better in the next 20 are you willing to admit they didn't miss Zadorov that much?

You're "still won't answer the question" BS had a time stamp of 3 minutes on it ... you know the time it took me to respond to it.

You're anti obsession with Zadorov is very very odd.