[News] LeBrun/Dreger - Flames open for Business

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If there is legit interest in Markstrom I think you have to consider trading him while the iron is hot as he's been so inconsistent with the Flames that to me he's the very definition of a sell high player.

The reality is that he could completely bounce back to 2021-22 levels, but he could just as easily turn back into a pumpkin. Holding onto him to try to maximize value is too much of a gamble. He's playing well right now so trade him if there's interest and he's willing to waive.

[traptor]

Every cup winning team in the last decade has had atleast one impactful top 5 pick.

2019 Blues and 2014 Kings only had one each.
2023 Knights had two but didn't draft either.

This is a trend and not the gospel obviously. Also almost every team has atleast one top 5 pick, including the flames in Lindholm, Huberdeau and Hanifin.

The more interesting trend to me is that all the teams except one had an impactful top 5 pick that they drafted. The one that didn't being Vegas who obviously had a very good expansion draft.

My key takeaway is that it seems like bottoming out works, although it may take awhile.

2023 - Golden Knights – Eichel (Traded 2nd) and Pietrangelo (signed 4th)
2022 - Avalanche – Mackinnon (Drafted here 1st) and Makar (drafted here 4th)
2021 - Lightning – Hedman (Drafted here 2nd), Stamkos (Drafted here 1st)
2020 - Lightning – Hedman (Drafted here 2nd), Stamkos (Drafted here 1st)
2019 – Blues - Pietrangelo (drafted 4th)
2018 – Capitals – Ovechkin (drafted 1st), Backstrom (drafted 4th)
2017 – Penguins – Crosby (Drafted 1st), Malkin (drafted 2nd), Fleury (drafted 1st), Kessel (Trade 5th)
2016 – Penguins - Crosby (Drafted 1st), Malkin (drafted 2nd), Fleury (drafted 1st), Kessel (Trade 5th)
2015 – Blackhawks – Kane (drafted 1st), Toews (drafted 3rd)
2014 – Kings – Doughty (drafted 2nd)
2013 – Blackhawks – Kane (drafted 1st), Toews (drafted 3rd)

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by traptor

Every cup winning team in the last decade has had atleast one impactful top 5 pick.

2019 Blues and 2014 Kings only had one each.
2023 Knights had two but didn't draft either.

This is a trend and not the gospel obviously. Also almost every team has atleast one top 5 pick, including the flames in Lindholm, Huberdeau and Hanifin.

The more interesting trend to me is that all the teams except one had an impactful top 5 pick that they drafted. The one that didn't being Vegas who obviously had a very good expansion draft.

My key takeaway is that it seems like bottoming out works, although it may take awhile.

2023 - Golden Knights – Eichel (Traded 2nd) and Pietrangelo (signed 4th)
2022 - Avalanche – Mackinnon (Drafted here 1st) and Makar (drafted here 4th)
2021 - Lightning – Hedman (Drafted here 2nd), Stamkos (Drafted here 1st)
2020 - Lightning – Hedman (Drafted here 2nd), Stamkos (Drafted here 1st)
2019 – Blues - Pietrangelo (drafted 4th)
2018 – Capitals – Ovechkin (drafted 1st), Backstrom (drafted 4th)
2017 – Penguins – Crosby (Drafted 1st), Malkin (drafted 2nd), Fleury (drafted 1st), Kessel (Trade 5th)
2016 – Penguins - Crosby (Drafted 1st), Malkin (drafted 2nd), Fleury (drafted 1st), Kessel (Trade 5th)
2015 – Blackhawks – Kane (drafted 1st), Toews (drafted 3rd)
2014 – Kings – Doughty (drafted 2nd)
2013 – Blackhawks – Kane (drafted 1st), Toews (drafted 3rd)

Lightning also had Luke Schenn. 5th overall pick by TO.
Blues had Brayden Schenn. 5th overall pick by LA.
Avs had Landeskog. 2nd overall pick by them.
Kings had Gaborik. 3rd overall pick by Minnesota.

Going through the rosters, it's remarkable how many top-10 picks and even just how many first-round picks in general these teams had when they won.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

To me, it would make more sense to move Vanecek who makes 3.4m next season (he's not an expiring contract), and Schmid is a better goaltender than Vancek long term. Sign him to a bridge deal for 2 years to align with Markstrom's last 2 years expiring at the same time. That to me makes more sense and also giving LA a goalie option at least for another season at a cheap rate since they're already up on the cap.

Just trying to put myself in the shoes of the other GMs. For Calgary, I like the futures coming back and Palat, the the better player than Mangiapane, to make Mangiapane expendable too. I bet a Palat - Backlund - Coleman line would be a two-way shutdown line while the youngsters play with Huberdeau and Kadri.

The Devils brought in Palat for his playoff savvy and big-game experience. They’re still a young team that needs those qualities in the lineup. I know it’s not looking like a great contract, but I don’t see them giving up on him so soon.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Lightning also had Luke Schenn. 5th overall pick by TO.
Blues had Brayden Schenn. 5th overall pick by LA.
Avs had Landeskog. 2nd overall pick by them.
Kings had Gaborik. 3rd overall pick by Minnesota.

Going through the rosters, it's remarkable how many top-10 picks and even just how many first-round picks in general these teams had when they won.

The Flames currently have a 3rd, 2 5ths and a 7th on the roster.

A couple years ago they were minus that 3rd, but had a different 3rd, and a 4th and a 6th.

[Robbob]

I think people get to hung up at the draft position. Is Schenn drafted 5th in his draft have much meaning when he is on his 7th team since his draft playing as the 6th or 7th Dman?

[Monahammer]

I think it's got to be a slightly modified version of the theory (to guard against the Schenns of the world as mentioned above). Essentially, the top 5 pick has to be drafted by the team (so the team gets the added cap advantage of having a high performing player on a value contract) or just that the top 5 pick player was acquired before their 25th birthday (for the Eichel like scenarios.)

[looooob]

This is not at really relevant to the current discussion , but thought it was fun to go back a bit to the 89 Flames team- which in my mind is one of the deeper teams of my lifetime at least (sure there are other cup teams with inner circle elites that the Flames didn't have, but that was a team that had now 6 HOFers and there are allstars and borderline HOF arguments sprinkled throughout the rest of the lineup)


the team construction was really incredible- with the amount of savvy trades, late drafts and amateur UFA signings made by trader Cliff


they did have a few high end picks to be sure: Ramage, Lanny, Mark Hunter and Roberts come to mind- including a previous 1OV but that certainly wasn't the core of the cup team


their top 12 scorers
Undrafted Hall of Famer
9th round pick All star

7th rounder Hall of Famer
2nd rounder Hall of Famer
1st rounder Hall of Famer (15th OV)
9th rounder. Highest scoring D not in HOF
8th rounder 3 time cup winner
Undrafted 943 game career elite 3C
1st rounder (12 OV 1200 games 438 goals)
Undrafted 500 game career Selke finalist

4th rounder 700 game career
8th rounder 1088 points


that is some ridiculous GMing right there

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think people get to hung up at the draft position. Is Schenn drafted 5th in his draft have much meaning when he is on his 7th team since his draft playing as the 6th or 7th Dman?

Pretty much just means they are probably all good players.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Lightning also had Luke Schenn. 5th overall pick by TO.
Blues had Brayden Schenn. 5th overall pick by LA.
Avs had Landeskog. 2nd overall pick by them.
Kings had Gaborik. 3rd overall pick by Minnesota.

Going through the rosters, it's remarkable how many top-10 picks and even just how many first-round picks in general these teams had when they won.

I agree high picks are nice. This discussion started though, with the observation that while all those winning teams had high picks, so do almost all the other teams that didn’t. So it’s not the clear analysis some think it is.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by looooob

This is not at really relevant to the current discussion , but thought it was fun to go back a bit to the 89 Flames team- which in my mind is one of the deeper teams of my lifetime at least (sure there are other cup teams with inner circle elites that the Flames didn't have, but that was a team that had now 6 HOFers and there are allstars and borderline HOF arguments sprinkled throughout the rest of the lineup)


the team construction was really incredible- with the amount of savvy trades, late drafts and amateur UFA signings made by trader Cliff


they did have a few high end picks to be sure: Ramage, Lanny, Mark Hunter and Roberts come to mind- including a previous 1OV but that certainly wasn't the core of the cup team


their top 12 scorers
Undrafted Hall of Famer
9th round pick All star

7th rounder Hall of Famer
2nd rounder Hall of Famer
1st rounder Hall of Famer (15th OV)
9th rounder. Highest scoring D not in HOF
8th rounder 3 time cup winner
Undrafted 943 game career elite 3C
1st rounder (12 OV 1200 games 438 goals)
Undrafted 500 game career Selke finalist

4th rounder 700 game career
8th rounder 1088 points


that is some ridiculous GMing right there

Somewhat ironic is that the Flames benefitted when the USA college system started to pick up steam as an NHL feeder system. The Flames were able to identify guys like Suter (9th round in 1984) and Nieuwendyk (2nd round - 1985). IIRC, people were like, what the heck is a Nieuwendyk when he was drafted. Then there was Paul Ranheim drafted out of a U.S. highschool. Back in the 1980s, the Flames drafted quite a bit from those systems and were one of the main teams giving them a shot. Granted, most of them didn't turn out, but the ones that did were steals. Nowadays, drafting American players for Calgary seems to carry more risk, especially in later rounds.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Somewhat ironic is that the Flames benefitted when the USA college system started to pick up steam as an NHL feeder system. The Flames were able to identify guys like Suter (9th round in 1984) and Nieuwendyk (2nd round - 1985). IIRC, people were like, what the heck is a Nieuwendyk when he was drafted. Then there was Paul Ranheim drafted out of a U.S. highschool. Back in the 1980s, the Flames drafted quite a bit from those systems and were one of the main teams giving them a shot. Granted, most of them didn't turn out, but the ones that did were steals. Nowadays, drafting American players for Calgary seems to carry more risk, especially in later rounds.

not to mention Otto, Patterson, Macoun etc as college UFAs (I realize some of these- nieuwy too- were actually Canadians. Berezan too went the college route but maybe drafted out of the AJHL?


oh George Pelawa, what could have been...

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Pretty much just means they are probably all good players.

Griffin Reinhart was drafted 4th at one point.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I agree high picks are nice. This discussion started though, with the observation that while all those winning teams had high picks, so do almost all the other teams that didn’t. So it’s not the clear analysis some think it is.

I think the interesting part is that 10/11 of the last 10 years of cup winners have high picks (top 5) that they drafted and developed. The odd one out being Vegas, a recent expansion team.

Each of these teams bottomed out, drafted high and then won.

[camm13]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think people get to hung up at the draft position. Is Schenn drafted 5th in his draft have much meaning when he is on his 7th team since his draft playing as the 6th or 7th Dman?

lol exactly. And Erik Gudbrandson was drafted 3rd overall by Florida in 2010.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Flames currently have a 3rd, 2 5ths and a 7th on the roster.

A couple years ago they were minus that 3rd, but had a different 3rd, and a 4th and a 6th.

Yeah, but those high picks don't count because reasons. They only count as high picks if you win the Cup after tanking on purpose, or something.

An awful lot of people seem fixated on Cup winners. They look at a winning team and ask, ‘How can we build a team just like this?’ Instead they should be looking at them alongside all the other teams and ask, ‘What made the winners different from the rest?’

Sadly, part of the answer to that second question is: ‘Luck.’ Detroit drafted Steve Yzerman 4th overall in 1983. Calgary drafted Sam Bennett 4th overall in 2014. The Islanders drafted Griffin Reinhart 4th overall in 2012. As for top-2 picks, you only get those by winning a lottery. But in a number of cases, as we've seen, the lottery is the only thing those teams ever won.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I agree high picks are nice. This discussion started though, with the observation that while all those winning teams had high picks, so do almost all the other teams that didn’t. So it’s not the clear analysis some think it is.

The argument I've always made, and will continue to make, is you need elite-level talent up front, on the backend and in goal... and that's where management comes into play.

The most reliable way to obtain the players you need is by picking in the top 10 in mutiple entry drafts. I mean, picking top-3 in mutiple drafts of close proximity almost guarantees you a perennial playoff team within a few seasons, as long as you have even average-level management (this obviously leaves out the Oilers). However, it's pretty difficult (see: Flames) to be able to draft in the top three even once, never mind multiple times close enough together that they're all part of the same core.

That's why it's not just about the players, but also about the management. Picking top ten 2-3 times in a span of maybe 3-4 years is a lot more achievable, but it requires better drafting and better building.

At any rate, teams that win cups have elite players throughout the lineup. 2-3 forwards, 1-2 defence and a goalie. Which, by nature, means you also have to have decent-level management. Coaching... I mean... if they're very good, maybe they only need 1-2 forwards, 1 D and a G... but then again, you need the management that's capable of knowing the right coach to get. Other than that, you really just need a coach that doesn't make a pile of mistakes. Matching your 4th line against their 1st line, or 4th line plug in the shootout with the season on the line... etc etc (interesting that Sutter is the perfect description of both types of coaches).

Summary:
- You need elite talent througout. (2-3 Fs, 1-2 D and 1 G).
- The most reliable way to get those players is in the draft, and the higher you draft, the better your chances.
- You need decent management who can short-term surround your core with complimentary pieces without sacrificing long-term sustainability.
- If you're short a F and/or D (the G is mandatory), then get the right coach for your team - not the right coach for you, or the right coach for your best player, but the right coach for your team. Otherwise, if you have all the pieces, then just get a coach that can do the job without shooting anyone in the foot.
- Win (a) Stanley Cup(s).

Ps. You also need an ownership group that wants championships vs one that requires two home playoff games a year.



That's it! That's all you need, and if you don't have it then the decision has to be "do we want it?" It means a season or two outside the playoffs and it means not lowballing your young superstars when it's time to pay them. It means risk for reward instead of status quo for status quo. Not ever market has the stomach for it, and certainly not every ownership. But Calgary's a "if you build it, we'll show up" kinda town, sooo maybe not that much of a risk.

Piece of cake.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by traptor

I think the interesting part is that 10/11 of the last 10 years of cup winners have high picks (top 5) that they drafted and developed. The odd one out being Vegas, a recent expansion team.

Each of these teams bottomed out, drafted high and then won.

13 of the last 15 Cup winners have a top 2 that they drafted. You dont need to go top 5. Its very clear.

LV - None (Eichel #2 demands trade though and they get in prime)
COL - McK, Landeskog
TB - Stamkos, Hedman
TB - Stamkos, Hedman
STL - NONE - Peitrangelo was lowest at 4th overall
WASH - Ovy
PITT - Malkin Crosby Fleury? Staal ? (dont remember when they left)
PITT- Malkin Crosby Fleury? Staal ? (dont remember when they left)
CHI -Kane
LA -Doughty
CHI- Kane
LA-Doughty
BOS - Seguin (Although he wasnt really a factor)
CHI- Kane
PITT- Malkin Crosby Fleury Staal

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by traptor

I think the interesting part is that 10/11 of the last 10 years of cup winners have high picks (top 5) that they drafted and developed. The odd one out being Vegas, a recent expansion team.

Each of these teams bottomed out, drafted high and then won.

So did almost every other team, except for the winning part. That’s the point. And I’m not even one who thinks that the Flames should just reload - I’m fine with a losing season and a high draft pick.

The Flames had Bennett, Monahan and Tkachuk as drafted and developed high draft picks. They also traded for a couple more young 5OAs in Hanifin and Lindholm.

Dallas made it to the semis last year. One single high pick by them - Heiskenan.

[Spurs]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Yeah, but those high picks don't count because reasons. They only count as high picks if you win the Cup after tanking on purpose, or something.

No they "don't count" because they don't fit the requirements of drafted by the team that won the Cup.