Friedman's Nov 1st 32 thoughts update on Flames

[Enoch Root]

Also, it is important to remember, until a deal is actually agreed to, there are 2 numbers on the table, not 1: what is being proposed by the team and what is being asked by the player/agent. And when someone reports on what they hear, they are only getting one of those numbers. It is quite plausible that - IF this number is real (big if) - it was the ask, not the offer.

People losing their ####, and calling for people to be fired, because they heard a number in speculation, is beyond ridiculous.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Locke

And honestly...I DGAF what the players are saying.

I think its pretty clear now that Sutter was the answer, not the problem.

He wins the Jack Adams and then takes this sorry sack of bastards within 2 points of the playoffs?

Problem? He's essentially a miracle worker.

I said it before

He was brought in to put the group with Tkachuk and Gaudreau over the top and got more out of that group than anyone else, then goaltending collapsed

Treliving knew Tkachuk was gone and it was 50/50 with Gaudreau

Sutter then ended up getting this “we just wanna have fun” group within 2 points of the playoffs


Now we have this
Its amazing how much he got out of this group honestly

But
its time to move from that and have some good times now

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

When reporters speculate on contract size, they are often quite wrong, and usually to the high side. Friedman is notorious for being way above where they usually end up at (I think it's because he gets much of his information from agents).

Other reports were talking about numbers between Toews and Weegar. I suspect this guy just picked a number a little higher than Toews and ran with it: do some quick math, get a nice round number that will generate click bait, and BOOM, today's work is done!

Wasn’t he wrong about Backlund’s contract too initially? He even said that his number and term might be off but he knew the extension was going to get done

[CliffFletcher]

If Lindholm is moved, you gotta think Carolina will be in the mix. They asked about him last deadline. Though with their cap structure, they’d likely just want him as a rental.

[Enoch Root]

This hindsight view that Sutter did an amazing job with this team last year, is ridiculous.

Last year was awful, and it was probably the worst job of coaching Sutter has ever submitted. Full stop.

Is the team still bad this year? Yes. Does that mean they were actually playing their best last year? NO! They underperformed massively last year - under Sutter - and they are still reeling, and still under-performing this year. Both can be true.

I really don't get the extremes that people want to swing to. And how everything is black or white: "Sutter was terrible!" "No, Sutter was the best coach ever!"

JC

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Also, it is important to remember, until a deal is actually agreed to, there are 2 numbers on the table, not 1: what is being proposed by the team and what is being asked by the player/agent. And when someone reports on what they hear, they are only getting one of those numbers. It is quite plausible that - IF this number is real (big if) - it was the ask, not the offer.

People losing their ####, and calling for people to be fired, because they heard a number in speculation, is beyond ridiculous.

Also keep in mind most of these leaks come from agents.

[Strange Brew]

The report on Hanifin was that the agent and team had agreed. Of course it may not be true, but that is the report that is out there. So that's waht people are going to talk about and over react to.

There were tons of reports by Friedman that they were very close, so be it the ask, the offer or the agreed price between agent and team, it sure sounds like something was imminent. I haven't seen any other numbers reported that would contradict this.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If Lindholm is moved, you gotta think Carolina will be in the mix. They asked about him last deadline. Though with their cap structure, they’d likely just want him as a rental.

Ideally they move him to a team that has extension on the mind because I feel the price paid will be higher if the acquiring team is looking to add a long term piece vs a rental.

I do agree the Canes would be in the mix.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

The report on Hanifin was that the agent and team had agreed. Of course it may not be true, but that is the report that is out there. So that's waht people are going to talk about and over react to.

There were tons of reports by Friedman that they were very close, so be it the ask, the offer or the agreed price between agent and team, it sure sounds like something was imminent. I haven't seen any other numbers reported that would contradict this.

I suspect the numbers are more or less right.
I also suspect the agent was the one to leak it, and then was caught off guard when his client wouldn't sign.
Which is why there was the weird day that it was "close to being done" and then an interview with Hanifin stepping that back.
Hanifin will get something close to the $$ and term on the open market. But the Flames shouldn't be the ones to sign that deal.
All this just reinforces why it's critical to the long-term success that this team have just a miserable season to drag them into a better strategy (hopefully)

[Monahammer]

We are all Ralph Wiggum right now.

Seriously though, I don't care about any of the players on this team. Waive them all.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I suspect the numbers are more or less right.
I also suspect the agent was the one to leak it, and then was caught off guard when his client wouldn't sign.
Which is why there was the weird day that it was "close to being done" and then an interview with Hanifin stepping that back.
Hanifin will get something close to the $$ and term on the open market. But the Flames shouldn't be the ones to sign that deal.
All this just reinforces why it's critical to the long-term success that this team have just a miserable season to drag them into a better strategy (hopefully)

He will definitely be attractive on the open market. I have a hard time predicting what players will get, it won't be $60MM obviously, just because of the term.

This leaked number definitely represents a premium, and as you say, the Flames don't need to be paying premiums right now.

But man Conroy is going to have some work to do just to ice an NHL calibre back end next year. We think the team is bad right now, Subtract Hanifin, Tanev and Zadorov and yikes. IMO no real NHL ready players in the system, but a couple of intriguing prospects. He will have to overpay a couple of vets on short term deals IMO just to ice a team that doesn't get run over every night.

[Ashes]

If those rumors are correct and Hanifin was offered $7.5M x 8.. I'm even more worried about our management teams ability to identify what the team needs. And I'm not a Hanifin hater, I think he's shown flashes over the years and he's a (mostly) stable presence on the back-end.

But $7.5M puts him in a tier of defensemen with players like Victor Hedman and Devon Toews, and it's $1M more than Hampus Lindholm.. I mean, in what world is this not an overpay? Thank goodness the agent had a big brain moment and walked his client away from that contract, or however it worked out.

On the flipside, if the market believes his value is close to a $7.5M D-Man then we should be looking at a hefty return (on par with Hampus Lindholm - 1st and two 2nds?).

Also if it turns out that Edwards came in and put a stop to these extensions then I don't even know who the real villain is anymore lol what a time to be a Flames fan

[Johnny Makarov]

Actually if Conroy did offer this 8X$7.25, he should be fired immediately. that is just mind boggling.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Actually if Conroy did offer this 8X$7.25, he should be fired immediately. that is just mind boggling.

it was probably actually Nonis

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Actually if Conroy did offer this 8X$7.25, he should be fired immediately. that is just mind boggling.

Yeah the numbers might not be exact; but just the fact that offers were out to Lindholm & Hanifin and the players had to backaway is very concerning.
The management of this team never seems to learn.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

He will definitely be attractive on the open market. I have a hard time predicting what players will get, it won't be $60MM obviously, just because of the term.

This leaked number definitely represents a premium, and as you say, the Flames don't need to be paying premiums right now.

But man Conroy is going to have some work to do just to ice an NHL calibre back end next year. We think the team is bad right now, Subtract Hanifin, Tanev and Zadorov and yikes. IMO no real NHL ready players in the system, but a couple of intriguing prospects. He will have to overpay a couple of vets on short term deals IMO just to ice a team that doesn't get run over every night.

Exactly, and this is why any deals that Conroy makes will have to include players coming back, because they still have to ice a team. That doesn't mean they have to be one-for-one 'hockey trades', but they have to include guys who can step into the lineup (as opposed to purely pics).

At the deadline, that is less the case, because there are only 20 more games to go, and they would (presumably) not be too worried about being competitive at that point (for the remainder of this season)

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Ashes

If those rumors are correct and Hanifin was offered $7.5M x 8.. I'm even more worried about our management teams ability to identify what the team needs. And I'm not a Hanifin hater, I think he's shown flashes over the years and he's a (mostly) stable presence on the back-end.

But $7.5M puts him in a tier of defensemen with players like Victor Hedman and Devon Toews, and it's $1M more than Hampus Lindholm.. I mean, in what world is this not an overpay? Thank goodness the agent had a big brain moment and walked his client away from that contract, or however it worked out.

On the flipside, if the market believes his value is close to a $7.5M D-Man then we should be looking at a hefty return (on par with Hampus Lindholm - 1st and two 2nds?).

Also if it turns out that Edwards came in and put a stop to these extensions then I don't even know who the real villain is anymore lol what a time to be a Flames fan

I'm by no means a contract value expert. But I think what gets lost when we look at extension offers yet to be signed, if that comparing them to contracts already signed isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison. Slotting Hanifin for example, into a tier of player vs. his peers is easy. Understanding what his AAV should be on a new 8 year deal, vs. the AAV of a deal signed say 2 years ago, is tough. Cap is likely to go up, so for lack of a better word, inflation is kicking in on the new deals. And it's not just an exercise of what should the AAV be in year 1, but what should it be in year 4 of deal, especially with a younger player like Hanifin. For both team and player it's a massive prediction exercise on: What should the value of Hanifin the player is right now be in say 4 years and will Hanifin be the same Tier of player in 4 years, or less of a player, more of a player, the same.

Point being, newer deals are likely to be higher than older deals, so saying that's more than what player XXX is getting paid on this deal, isn't exactly a fair comparison.

On the last comment about Edwards being a villain. I've never understood this need to vilify him at all, but more importantly, why do we need a villian? Just because we aren't happy with results, why does someone need to be the bad person? Just some people doing their best but not getting the results we hoped for, there is no villain.

[Winsor_Pilates]

7. An exec from another team said he heard that the Flames might rattle their room by putting a veteran player on waivers. That obviously hasn’t happened.

Brad Treliving stirring the pot

[Igottago]

Why they would be throwing these contracts out there at this stage without even seeing what the team is, is just insane. They really were trying to double down on this core and not considering any other path. Its a miracle they aren't in an even worse predicament. This organization is inept.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Yeah the numbers might not be exact; but just the fact that offers were out to Lindholm & Hanifin and the players had to backaway is very concerning.
The management of this team never seems to learn.

This is the one point I would dispute. The agent will put out the narrative that it was their client that walked away.
It could easily be more mutual with everyone pushing pause. I suspect this is more the reality.
Remember everyone that leaks info has their own personal reasons and agenda for doing so.