[Game Takes] Wings 6 Flames 2

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What stats are those?

The Flames are 12th in expected goal splits, 5th in high danger splits, 19th in scoring chance splits and dead last in PDO.

If anything the stats say they are better than what the eye test is telling us ...

Calgary has played some strong hockey, but lacked the finish when they do. Debacle in Detroit to finish the trip though.

I don’t keep spreadsheets of these things to easily cherry pick from like you do. So I’m not interested in playing a back and forth game of pulling out rankings on specific metrics. Take a victory lap on that one if you want.

What I see is a team that can control the puck for long periods with nothing to show, and then the first play going back the other way ends up in the net. And God forbid if they’re down by 2, you might as well turn off the game. It’s a tale that we’ve seen play out many, many times over the last however many years. And I’m not about to be fooled by another narrative of the fancy stats darlings that are just one good stretch away from having things normalize. If you want to believe that this time it’ll happen for sure, don’t let me stop you. But being dead last in PDO and way up the list in CF tells me enough.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

That's all good, but that was the narrative last season to a degree, and with the same group not able to finish chances again already, I'm very doubtful that even improved goaltending (which Markstrom appears to be providing) all season will be enough.

We can follow the "it's too early" narrative - I buy it to a minor extent. But when the group is nearly identical to last season and the staff isn't completely re-inventing the wheel, I'm watching these next 4-5 games very closely to start formulating my judgement on what this team is capable of this year.

The fact some of the teams maligned players from last season aren't playing much better than they have been is quite concerning given how much onus was put on last year being a coaching issue. It's getting downright scary how bad this could get with the contract situations and possible additional extensions brewing.

Scarier part is outside of Sutter. Huberdeau, Markstrom and Mangiapane were probably the next buggest goats.

Markstrom has been playing great and Mangiapane is as well to a lesser degree. We might be getting worse results.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I don’t keep spreadsheets of these things to easily cherry pick from like you do. So I’m not interested in playing a back and forth game of pulling out rankings on specific metrics.

What I see is a team that can control the puck for long periods with nothing to show, and then the first play going back the other way ends up in the net. And God forbid if they’re down by 2, you might as well turn off the game. It’s a tale that we’ve seen play out many, many times over the last however many years. And I’m not about to be fooled by another narrative of the fancy stats darlings that are just one good stretch away from having things normalize. If you want to believe that this time it’ll happen for sure, don’t let me stop you. But being dead last in PDO and way up the list in CF tells me enough.

I mean, they are readily available on public sites....

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Scarier part is outside of Sutter. Huberdeau, Markstrom and Mangiapane were probably the next buggest goats.

Markstrom has been playing great and Mangiapane is as well to a lesser degree. We might be getting worse results.

Yes it's almost like the coaching last year might have been part of the solution instead of part of the problem. Maybe Sutter clashed with Tre, Huby and Kadri cuz he realized they didn't want to do their jobs properly. Maybe Sutter got the most out of many other players who actually didn't tune him out.

Maybe without Sutter, we'll find out just how bad this roster is.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

That's all good, but that was the narrative last season to a degree, and with the same group not able to finish chances again already, I'm very doubtful that even improved goaltending (which Markstrom appears to be providing) all season will be enough.

We can follow the "it's too early" narrative - I buy it to a minor extent. But when the group is nearly identical to last season and the staff isn't completely re-inventing the wheel, I'm watching these next 4-5 games very closely to start formulating my judgement on what this team is capable of this year.

The fact some of the teams maligned players from last season aren't playing much better than they have been is quite concerning given how much onus was put on last year being a coaching issue. It's getting downright scary how bad this could get with the contract situations and possible additional extensions brewing.

Trust me I'm not high on them either.

But the PDO rank of last is one that usually normalizes to some degree ... but it certainly didn't last year.

The Flames were 31st in 5 on 5 save percentage, and 23rd in shooting percentage.

The goaltending has a chance to be improved, at least from what we are seeing from Markstrom so far.

The shooting percentage though? If you don't have finishers it's likely not luck.

But to suggest all the numbers match the eye test wasn't correct. There are some indicators that the Flames are playing better than their record. But do they have the talent to finish what they create?

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Trust me I'm not high on them either.

But the PDO rank of last is one that usually normalizes to some degree ... but it certainly didn't last year.

The Flames were 31st in 5 on 5 save percentage, and 23rd in shooting percentage.

The goaltending has a chance to be improved, at least from what we are seeing from Markstrom so far.

The shooting percentage though? If you don't have finishers it's likely not luck.

But to suggest all the numbers match the eye test wasn't correct. There are some indicators that the Flames are playing better than their record. But do they have the talent to finish what they create?

They have a 40 goal scorer and multiple 30 goal scorers on the team.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

They have a 40 goal scorer and multiple 30 goal scorers on the team.

I can't tell if this post is meant to be taken seriously or not. But if that's really what you expect to come together, boy are you in for a surprise.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I can't tell if this post is meant to be taken seriously or not. But if that's really what you expect to come together, boy are you in for a surprise.

I guess I don't carry your unrivaled negativity. I like cheering for a team and their potential. Not hoping and cheering for failure and hoping I am right.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I don’t keep spreadsheets of these things to easily cherry pick from like you do. So I’m not interested in playing a back and forth game of pulling out rankings on specific metrics. Take a victory lap on that one if you want.

What I see is a team that can control the puck for long periods with nothing to show, and then the first play going back the other way ends up in the net. And God forbid if they’re down by 2, you might as well turn off the game. It’s a tale that we’ve seen play out many, many times over the last however many years. And I’m not about to be fooled by another narrative of the fancy stats darlings that are just one good stretch away from having things normalize. If you want to believe that this time it’ll happen for sure, don’t let me stop you. But being dead last in PDO and way up the list in CF tells me enough.

That's a lame response.

What is cherry picked? I gave the team summaries through six games in the most important team stats verbatim.

Even agreed with you on the eye test.

And I never suggested the numbers meant they would turn it around. If you're going to say all the stats back up the eye test when they don't ... that's on you.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

They have a 40 goal scorer and multiple 30 goal scorers on the team.

Last year they didn't.

This year they don't seem to.

I'm not the wallow in negativity guy but the sample size of a team that isn't built to create offence together is certainly starting to pile up.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Last year they didn't.

This year they don't seem to.

I'm not the wallow in negativity guy but the sample size of a team that isn't built to create offence together is certainly starting to pile up.

Over 6 games they are outscoring:

New Jersey
Edmonton
Florida
Dallas
New York
Pittsburgh

The sample size is far too small to draw a conclusion. Their underlying metrics seem good to great. I expect a bounce back season for several players (although Kadri is worrisome). They missed the playoffs by 1 win last year in a year where literally nothing went right.

There is plenty of reason for optimism. In my opinion.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Very balanced team

4th line was just as good as 1st or 2nd line

4th line was just as crappy as 1st or 2nd line.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Over 6 games they are outscoring:

New Jersey
Edmonton
Florida
Dallas
New York
Pittsburgh

The sample size is far too small to draw a conclusion. Their underlying metrics seem good to great. I expect a bounce back season for several players (although Kadri is worrisome). They missed the playoffs by 1 win last year in a year where literally nothing went right.

There is plenty of reason for optimism. In my opinion.

Yeah there are things to look at for sure.

If you remove the Winnipeg game (tire fire in metrics) they are creating more high danger as a % of shot attempt and in 60 minutes of five on five than they were last season.

Though what year over year wouldn't look good if you removed the worst 17% of the data?

But last year they had solid expected goal totals and couldn't finish.

This year we are seeing the same thing.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah there are things to look at for sure.

If you remove the Winnipeg game (tire fire in metrics) they are creating more high danger as a % of shot attempt and in 60 minutes of five on five than they were last season.

Though what year over year wouldn't look good if you removed the worst 17% of the data?

But last year they had solid expected goal totals and couldn't finish.

This year we are seeing the same thing.

Positive regression is often inevitable (which is why over a long enough period PDO becomes a valuable indicator of luck), my guess is by mid-November the complaints and handwringing will be a forgotten memory of the often tumultuous first couple small sample weeks every year.

Last year, with historically bad goaltending, the Flames still ended the season with a positive goal differential. That's mind boggling.

With even league average goaltending, essentially the same team (minus Toffoli) should easily be able to repeat that feat, if not much much better.

Maybe I have rose colored glasses, but I find the team far more fun to watch, hockeywise, this year over last years slog every game under a Sutter system. Which frankly had terrible pacing and roster use.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Nm

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Positive regression is often inevitable (which is why over a long enough period PDO becomes a valuable indicator of luck), my guess is by mid-November the complaints and handwringing will be a forgotten memory of the often tumultuous first couple small sample weeks every year.

Last year, with historically bad goaltending, the Flames still ended the season with a positive goal differential. That's mind boggling.

With even league average goaltending, essentially the same team (minus Toffoli) should easily be able to repeat that feat, if not much much better.

Maybe I have rose colored glasses, but I find the team far more fun to watch, hockeywise, this year over last years slog every game under a Sutter system. Which frankly had terrible pacing and roster use.

Here's hoping!

But last year the Flames also had the 23rd ranked five on five shooting percentage. This year? 23rd.

And that's a 88 game sample size.