Rube's 2020 Degenerate Piece of Garbage Thread (NFL Gambling) - Page 21 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

calgarygeologist · 10-08-2023, 03:43 PM

I almost had a perfect moneyline parlay with the morning games but stupid Houston ruined it for me.

Sylvanfan · 10-08-2023, 04:10 PM

NM wrong thread...bet on the Vikings

transplant99 · 10-09-2023, 11:23 AM

As seen on twitter

Iggy_12 · 10-09-2023, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

As seen on twitter

This was your ticket??

The super boost today is Davanta Adams any time TD +175

These are usually sucker bets but gotta imagine Adams has some extra motivation?

transplant99 · 10-09-2023, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iggy_12

This was your ticket??

The super boost today is Davanta Adams any time TD +175

These are usually sucker bets but gotta imagine Adams has some extra motivation?

Not mine.....i wish.

Iggy_12 · 10-09-2023, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

Not mine.....i wish.

Oh haha, i saw that earlier on twitter and thought you were famous

Sylvanfan · 10-09-2023, 11:46 AM

No, that wouldn't be his ticket.
Those odds are pretty high though to hit what are not unreasonable totals. I might need to start looking more at player props. Although I'd likely suck as those too.

I did get my Trixie on Miami, San Francisco, Cincinnati and my teaser of Indy +8.5, Jets +8.5, and Packers +8.5 is still alive. I could middle this to ensure I make a profit.

Sylvanfan · 10-12-2023, 05:19 PM

I tend to be hard on Kansas City, but 10.5 points for Denver seems like too many to me. Chiefs can win 24-14 and Denver still covers. I think they can get to at least 17 and Chiefs offence won't top 27.

calgarygeologist · 10-12-2023, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I tend to be hard on Kansas City, but 10.5 points for Denver seems like too many to me. Chiefs can win 24-14 and Denver still covers. I think they can get to at least 17 and Chiefs offence won't top 27.

Denver is allowing an average over 30 points against when playing rather weak offenses in Washington, NYJ and Chicago. KC should being a better offense than all three of those teams should easily put up 30 and likely over 40.

Senator Clay Davis · 10-12-2023, 06:17 PM

Broncos are bad, but it's still a division rivalry game on a Thursday night, and even a comfortable Chiefs win can see the Broncos pull out the backdoor cover.

rubecube · 10-19-2023, 01:02 PM

Doing a same game teaser tonight. Jags +7/U46.5

GirlySports · 10-19-2023, 01:51 PM

Raiders -3. Bears are starting Tyson Bagent

rubecube · 10-19-2023, 10:25 PM

I hate gambling.

Senator Clay Davis · 10-26-2023, 06:29 PM

On the one hand Buffalo is clearly better than Tampa and they are at home. On the other, they have looked pretty poor the last few weeks, so -10 on a Thursday seems like too much.

transplant99 · 10-29-2023, 09:25 AM

Playin a couple parlays

Jets/Giants under 35
Chiefs/Broncos under 46
Titans/Falcons under 35
Texans/Panthers under 43

pays 13.44/1

Also

Cowboys/Vikings/Texans/Dolphins/Eagles/Seahawks/Ravens/Lions

ML is 11.18/1

Sylvanfan · 10-29-2023, 11:49 AM

I have a 6 point teaser of
Pittsburgh +8.5
Baltimore -2
Detroit -2

Also have a small play on a 3 team moneyline parlay of
Cincinnati, Baltimore, and New Orleans that pays a touch better than 6:1.

I have not played all of these but my picks for this week when I made them on are
Cowboys -6 vs Rams current line is -7 still like Dallas at this number
Panthers -3.5 vs Texans
Vikings -1 vs Packers...although Vikings are backed by Joe's...
Saints +1.0 at Colts, line has moved to be Saints -2, I'd rake Saints to -2.5
Patriots +9.5 at Dolphins is sitting at +8 now, at 7.5 I'd switch to Miami
Giants +3 vs Jets
Jaguars -2.5 at Steelers
Falcons -2.5 at Titans...I'm onside with the public again...so don't like this
Commanders +7 vs Eagles, think it's a bit of a flat spot for Philly
Browns +4 at Seahawks, looks like a 13-10 game to Mr
Cardinals +9.5 vs Ravens I think it's something bit of a flat spot for Baltimore
Broncos +7 vs Chiefs
Chargers -8.5 vs Bears, line is at -9 right now, would not go to -10
Lions -7.5 vs Raiders, again I'm on the public side...probably the wrong one.

I have 11 unders and 5 overs for totals...so I'm not seeing the overs come back yet. I have Hou/Car over 43, NO/Ind over 44, NE/Mia over 46.5, Phi/Was over 43.5, and Chi/LAC over 46.

On the season I have dogs as being 54-50-2 against the number, and Unders at 64-39-3. If you played every dog and every under this year, you'd be profitable.

YTD I have been 61-43-2 picking sides, and 56-47-3 on totals...but only up like 5% with my bankroll. Needless to say I better keep my crappy dsy job and find a better side hustle.

Good luck.

Senator Clay Davis · 11-09-2023, 11:29 AM

I honestly would be terrified of betting a game where the O/U is this comically low. But apparently everyone thinks the under is the play...

Quote:

The over/under total on the Hawkeyes' home game Saturday against Rutgers dipped to a historic low this week at sportsbooks.

As of late Thursday morning, the total sat at a consensus 28, the lowest of any college football game since at least 2000, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Barring late line movement, Rutgers-Iowa will be the first game with an over/under total of less than 30 in ESPN's odds database.

"I looked through my database and couldn't find a number in the 20s," Craig Mucklow, a long-time Las Vegas oddsmaker with Caesars Sportsbook, said on a company podcast. "I did find 1,500 games over the last five years with higher first-half totals [than 28]."

The Rutgers-Iowa total opened as high as 30, but has been dropping, but bettors have flocked to the take the under despite the historically low number. Sportsbooks BetRivers, DraftKings and PointsBet (Fanatics) were reporting upwards of 80% of the money that had been wagered on the total this week was on the under

https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/st...istoric-low-28

Sylvanfan · 11-11-2023, 04:55 PM

Looks like it closed at 27.5. Game is 6-0 Iowa almost through the third quarter.

Game ends 22-0.

DropIt · 11-12-2023, 11:35 AM

Feeling good about PIT and the under this week along with cincy and the over

Sylvanfan · 11-12-2023, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropIt

Feeling good about PIT and the under this week along with cincy and the over

The Sharps bet that total up earlier in the week on GB and Pittsburgh. Both teams have been under teams all year. I don't see Green Bay surpassing 14 points...but scares me as a game where something strange like 3 defensive special teams TD's could skew the total.

With the number of injuries for both teams I disagree on your Houston and Cinci over. I think Cinci will be able to keep Stroud in check as Lou Amarillo is a really savvy D.C.

I have SF -3 to cover vs Jax
LV and NYJ under 36.5

Have the Pats +7.5 with the Vikings +8.5 and Bills -8.5 on a Teaser.

At this point I think I should just blindly play every under. With how terrible QB play is right now, these might keep hitting at 60% or better until they start setting totals at 27 points