Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Firebot]

Latest numbers from Abacus Data were published before the long weekend which gives us insight on how Canadians view top issues that matter and the shifting dynamics.

https://abacusdata.ca/genz-top-issues-facing-canada/

Spoiler!

What is surprising is the generational divide on climate change and the environment. Compared to Gen Z, Boomers are 7-pts more likely to place environment and climate change in their top 3 issues.

For any party to tap into the support of Canada’s youngest generation they need to come ready with a message and solutions that address their top-of-mind issues. Right now, the two parties doing it best are the Conservatives and NDP.

What it tells us, is that housing is increasingly a top issue, on which the Liberal track record is seen as poor or for which their policies are seen as direct cause of the issue. It should also be noted that climate change suddenly becomes a less important issue when you have immediate trouble feeding and sheltering yourself. This could explain why climate change scores much higher with the boomers, who don't have worry about housing affordability.

The Liberals are effectively scoring highest with the boomers, largely out of touch with Canadian reality living in their own bubble. Liberals are even losing out to the NDP when it comes to Gen Z and falling in 3rd, which doesn't bode well.

[timun]

Interesting that the Liberal-NDP-Green vs. Conservative-PPC split is pretty much the same from age group to age group; 51-57% vs. 40-44%. Gen X gets skewed by 10% polling for the Bloc.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I spent years working against that "conventional wisdom" and even though that may have been a logical thing to do, I didn't do it. I wanted to pay off my mortgage instead, even if that meant driving an old vehicle around that doesn't have Apple Carplay and vented seats. Well I did, and these high interest rates mean good returns on savings and not having them negatively affect me. So maybe "conventional wisdom" doesn't always trump gut instinct. And maybe people should take responsibilities for their own decisions.

This isn't too be smug against those who have real affordability issues through no fault of their own. Just that your decisions are yours, and many many people made a lot of poor financial decisions over the past decade. To say "they were told to" by people who's careers depend on them saying these things for business, welll...

That’s great for old people, I don’t know if not having Apple car play is going to save young people of today from insane rents or housing that has sky rocketed.

The cost of living for essential items has ballooned that’s not a choice.

[OldDutch]

Liberals are cooked if that poll is correct. They played the social and environmental justice hand hard, hoping people would forgive higher cost of living (and taxes sweet juicy taxes).

Key here is top 3 issues are not mutually exclusive. Saying Environment is your top issue and cost of living your second, could switch instantly if you actually see your bills go up. Especially with 73% reporting it.

[TorqueDog]

I do care about the environment, but it wouldn't even be in my top 5 in the context of problems facing Canada.

Although I'm willing to bump it up slightly with all these feckin' fires out west ruining summer.

[Ozy_Flame]

Meh. It depends what your priorities are at the moment. These are always point-in-time polls; they'll adjust slightly again in six months and 10 years from now those priorities will be different, just like they were back in 2015 when Trudeau was elected. Nothing surprising here.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Meh. It depends what your priorities are at the moment. These are always point-in-time polls; they'll adjust slightly again in six months and 10 years from now those priorities will be different, just like they were back in 2015 when Trudeau was elected. Nothing surprising here.

Fair point. The fires could get worse, or another big event. I am however not counting on housing thus affordability to get better in 2 years.

Their putting in an infill on my street and each side is 1.5M. I paid over 500K less for my 2019 house in 2021.

Its insane what housing is doing. Feel so bad for folks without any property including my family members. I doubt we’ll see affordability in our lifetime

Right or wrong people will blame the government. Actually rightly cause Justin said he’d work on that in 2015. Oh well.

[Azure]

First he says he'll work on it, then he says he won't cause its not his fault.

Housing is a local issue first in terms of homes being built, but hard battle to fight when immigration is completely out of control.

That being said, locally housing is a mess. Planning boards need to get cleaned out and replaced with people who care about this issue, and not are just power hungry sociopaths who let power get to their heads.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Right or wrong people will blame the government. Actually rightly cause Justin said he’d work on that in 2015. Oh well.

They also implemented a 2 year ban on foreign buyers starting this year, which was a part of the last election campaign.
Housing is their responsibility when votes are at play, but then it's not when people are struggling.

[activeStick]

This poll suggests that PP is not popular with the exception of in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1699916111431487674

[Fuzz]

That doesn't translate well for seat count. And this is before most of the country starts paying attention to him.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That doesn't translate well for seat count. And this is before most of the country starts paying attention to him.

This is only true if you disregard the same polls for Trudeau

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That doesn't translate well for seat count. And this is before most of the country starts paying attention to him.

I found this one more telling.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1699806978350907548

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by activeStick

This poll suggests that PP is not popular with the exception of in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1699916111431487674

The latest Abacus poll has Poilievre at +2 net approval, compared with Trudeau’s -24 per cent (I couldn’t find figures for Singh). For context, Trudeau won the last federal election with a -6 rating.

And overall, here’s how the three stack up:

Spoiler!

[activeStick]

Polling Canada is just an account that posts various polls related to Canadian politics. The one I posted was from Angus Reid.

[Firebot]

Hmmm

https://twitter.com/user/status/1699833345369420050

I don't know, seems like housing crisis is the current key priority based on what I see from the CPC and Poilievre camp of late, and i guess cutting a tax impacting groceries and gas and cost of living as a priority could be twisted as making pollution free...so I will concede that one to the Liberals.

Clearly Liberals having chosen on tripling down on the negative rhetoric versus working to find solutions for Canadians on issues that matter to Canadians while governing.

Cue dark ominous music...FAR-RIGHT AMERICAN STYLE POLITICS

[Fuzz]

Without seeing the regional distribution of those numbers, it doesn't mean much. Seats win elections, not popular vote. The poll showing regional numbers shows that most of it is from Alberta and the like. So strong Conservative ridings find Pierre exciting, news at 11.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Hmmm

https://twitter.com/user/status/1699833345369420050

I don't know, seems like housing crisis is the current key priority based on what I see from the CPC and Poilievre camp of late, and i guess cutting a tax impacting groceries and gas and cost of living as a priority could be twisted as making pollution free...so I will concede that one to the Liberals.

Clearly Liberals having chosen on tripling down on the negative rhetoric versus working to find solutions for Canadians on issues that matter to Canadians while governing.

Cue dark ominous music...FAR-RIGHT AMERICAN STYLE POLITICS

Yeah I'm not sure if the boogyman campaign is going to work this time. This appears to be time where Canadians are looking for change and simply spinning the far right rhetoric isn't likely going to be enough.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That doesn't translate well for seat count. And this is before most of the country starts paying attention to him.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Without seeing the regional distribution of those numbers, it doesn't mean much. Seats win elections, not popular vote. The poll showing regional numbers shows that most of it is from Alberta and the like. So strong Conservative ridings find Pierre exciting, news at 11.

Gotta love the spin attempts within minutes to affirm one statement that while trying to refuting the next one...from the same fricking poll.

Approval ratings and best PM are totally different statements.

Poilievre is not a charismatic man, far from it. He grates on people's nerves and generally unlikeable.

But does approval rating mean much? Approval ratings had Trudeau as low as 31% in 2019, yet Liberals still won the 2019 elections.

https://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker/

Meanwhile party leaders like Elizabeth May have had approval ratings ranked as high as 56% and that never amounted to May suddenly leading the Green Party to a majority.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/dion-s-approv...-poll-1.271061

Now it does mean that CPC is ahead not because of Poilievre, but because they aren't the Liberal. But this doesn't help the Liberals right now.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That doesn't translate well for seat count. And this is before most of the country starts paying attention to him.

I don’t know, I think the Ontario number isn’t granular enough to be too hasty about that. Poilievre doesn’t have to win everywhere in Ontario, he just needs to hold the rural seats and win in the suburbs of Toronto, and that will be enough for a “Harper-like” coalition of seats.

Trudeau is in trouble. I know it’s a ways out from an election, but that is also a reason the knives should be out for him now while the Liberals could still go into the next race with a new leader.