[Rumour] Lebrun: Flames prepared to have Hanifin at training camp with low trade offers so Far

[HighLifeMan]

Here were some reports surrounding Mikko Rantanen for comparison sake.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nes-draft-pick

"And while Rantanen may appear on paper to be a happy mixture of the positives of both Marner and Crouse, he lacks a defining attribute upon which to base his NHL-level game, where being purely good at hockey is no longer a sufficient ingredient for success."

"The Finn most likely faces a lower ceiling of potential than some of the 'Canes' flashier and more controversial options, as well. He's not going to be the next face of the franchise, and probably not even a regular All-Star; he's a relatively safe bet to be an offensively productive and defensively responsible top-six regular, but the next NHL superstar he is not."

https://futureconsiderations.ca/player/mikko-rantanen/

has an awkward upright skating stride, but gets from Point A to Point B just fine…not a big ”wow” factor to his game, but is a smooth, fluid, big-bodied forward who can be hard to handle…uses his strength and reach, along with his vision and hands, to protect the puck…

Sound's pretty similar doesn't it? Now I am not saying he will follow the same developmental path, but he certainly has the necessary tools to do so if he put's in the work. You just never know, and these big kids with ++ level skills can absolutely become home run selections.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There was never a bloom for me as I'm pretty cautious when it comes to overrating draft picks that aren't top 5 talent. I think Morin is the higher upside guy from the latest draft. I read too many daft reports on Honzig that say he has a lot of NHL measurables but lacks an elite toolset. Now that doesn't mean he won't develop into that but until that happens he projects as very good 2nd/3rd line center which goes back to my argument of the Flames having an abundance of middle six talents.

Right but you have Coronato at 13th in an average draft with a higher upside than the guy taken 16th in the deepest draft since '03.

I don't think either are locks to be elite or stars, but Coronato has his own warts as well (size, maybe skating)

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

You seem very selective in what you are quoting here..



You seemed to miss;
"Doing so could make him a top-six guy or even a top-line player."




You omitted;
"With his size, skating and potential raw skills finding their stride, he has the makings of a future top-six winger"

So really - you listed one report that limited his upside to that of a middle six player. A top six projection includes the possibility of him becoming a top line forward.

Nope. Listed exactly what the projection was. You listed what their absolute upside would be. Massive difference. Players rarely achieve upside which is why projections for bands are provided. But continue on believing what you like. Doesn’t change what the player is.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Nope. Listed exactly what the projection was. You listed what their absolute upside would be. Massive difference. Players rarely achieve upside which is why projections for bands are provided. But continue on believing what you like. Doesn’t change what the player is.

Well the original comment that started this discussion was talking specifically about upside.

So the quotes you omitted are indeed key to the discussion.

My problem with that is that the Flames have an abundance of middle six type of forwards on the roster as well as in the prospect base with Zary, Pelletier, etc and are in dire need of young talent that has 1st line potential. Coronato right now looks like the only forward in the system that has a high ceiling.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Top six = potential first line.

So does top 9. So does top 12. Kadri is a top 6 forward. He's not a top line player. Other prospects, like Perrault, are much more projectable as top line players than is Honzek. I recommend looking at Bader's projection cards. The difference is gigantic. So are the probabilities.

I still voted for Honzek 3rd in the prospects poll.
He's a solid prospect.

But if someone is most likely to become a second line player, that's not worth a 16th OA pick in a strong draft. Especially when several much higher ceiling options are available.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

So does top 9. So does top 12. Kadri is a top 6 forward. He's not a top line player. Other prospects, like Perrault, are much more projectable as top line players than is Honzek. I recommend looking at Bader's projection cards. The difference is gigantic. So are the probabilities.

I still voted for Honzek 3rd in the prospects poll.
He's a solid prospect.

But if someone is most likely to become a second line player, that's not worth a 16th OA pick in a strong draft. Especially when several much higher ceiling options are available.

Really? Bader's projection cards - that solely use NHLe as it's basis and don't take into account a players size, role, usage, defensive capabilities, playstyles, teammates, injuries, etc..

If only scouting were that easy.

[shutout]

Love how the one sarcastic comment from Bingo turned the Hanifin thread into the Honzek thread.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

So does top 9. So does top 12. Kadri is a top 6 forward. He's not a top line player. Other prospects, like Perrault, are much more projectable as top line players than is Honzek. I recommend looking at Bader's projection cards. The difference is gigantic. So are the probabilities.

I still voted for Honzek 3rd in the prospects poll.
He's a solid prospect.

But if someone is most likely to become a second line player, that's not worth a 16th OA pick in a strong draft. Especially when several much higher ceiling options are available.

During the draft broadcast, once of the analysts was an agent (I can't recall who it was), and he said that more and more these days, young players getting drafted, particularly ones going the university route, have specific teams they want to play for and it does affect who drafts them and when. When I see someone like Perreault (NYR) falling to 23 and Moore (CHI) falling to 19, I kind of assume that is why they may have fallen despite the pre-draft ranking of where most people have them being drafted.

I am just totally speculating, but I would bet that is why the Flames (and others) stayed away from those two. It also makes me thing that Honzek interviewed well and gave the impression that he would be happy to play in Calgary. Conroy stressed that they wanted to target players that wanted to play in Calgary, and I think that thought process likely extended into the draft. Everyone drafted after Honzek have some kind of concerns or unknowns. We are focusing on him because that is who the Flames picked, but if you dig up scouting reports for most players drafted after him, you'll find they had similar projections or potential concerns. The only 2 players drafted after Honzek that I am keeping a close eye on are Barlow and Pelikka.

Even considering all that, I think Honzek was a solid pick at #16 regardless. He was ranked by various sources to go anywhere from 10 to 24, and his aggregate was around 21 I believe, so not an off-the-board pick by any means, especially when you consider that teams have to think about other factors that scouts who only watch games, have no knowledge about.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

But many players taken after him had much better NHLes, including some WHLers. Cristall comes to mind. Barlow, Musty, Perreault, etc. better as well. Perrault in particular was miles ahead in that category.

Even with your projections for Honzek, he'd still have worse production than Perrault and Cristall did this past year.

At the end of the day, I didn't like the Honzek pick because other players had first line potential. Some of them, based on stats, were even probably first line players.
If Hozek is a top 6 or middle 6 player, then that's barely worth a 16th OA pick in a strong draft.

I like Cristall too, but in the dub it is Bedard, Benson, Cristall. Those are the draft eligible players that were better PPG players and even strength PPG players in the entire league. Hard to compare across different leagues.

I like Barlow but he is already a man. Having seen him live twice in the OHL, he looks like a 20 year old. He is listed at 190 lbs, but I suspect he is already over 200 lbs. How he develops when other guys gain the same amount of strength as him is a big question.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Right but you have Coronato at 13th in an average draft with a higher upside than the guy taken 16th in the deepest draft since '03.

I don't think either are locks to be elite or stars, but Coronato has his own warts as well (size, maybe skating)

Coronato put up ridiculous numbers in the USHL though so there was some evidence that this guy is a natural scorer. I just don't see a point in putting these guys on a pedestal immediately after a draft. It's just setting yourself up for disappointment as most of them don't fulfil or exceed their potential and that leads to disappointed posters calling them busts because they anointed them immediately as a blue chipper because Cosentino (the guy rarely has a bad thing to say about any prospect) or someone said he could be a star or something. I think Honzek has potential to be an NHL player based on his size alone but most of these players don't work out and you just have to hope the Flames scouts hit the jackpot and he turns out to be even better than his draft projections. To be fair if they would have picked Barlow for example I would have felt the same way as he is also didn't have a high floor projection and more of a middle 6 guy.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

During the draft broadcast, once of the analysts was an agent (I can't recall who it was), and he said that more and more these days, young players getting drafted, particularly ones going the university route, have specific teams they want to play for and it does affect who drafts them and when. When I see someone like Perreault (NYR) falling to 23 and Moore (CHI) falling to 19, I kind of assume that is why they may have fallen despite the pre-draft ranking of where most people have them being drafted.

I am just totally speculating, but I would bet that is why the Flames (and others) stayed away from those two. It also makes me thing that Honzek interviewed well and gave the impression that he would be happy to play in Calgary. Conroy stressed that they wanted to target players that wanted to play in Calgary, and I think that thought process likely extended into the draft. Everyone drafted after Honzek have some kind of concerns or unknowns. We are focusing on him because that is who the Flames picked, but if you dig up scouting reports for most players drafted after him, you'll find they had similar projections or potential concerns. The only 2 players drafted after Honzek that I am keeping a close eye on are Barlow and Pelikka.

Even considering all that, I think Honzek was a solid pick at #16 regardless. He was ranked by various sources to go anywhere from 10 to 24, and his aggregate was around 21 I believe, so not an off-the-board pick by any means, especially when you consider that teams have to think about other factors that scouts who only watch games, have no knowledge about.

I do think that during the interview process if a player doesn't appear to be thrilled about the prospect of joining your organization or doesn't grade out well during the session that you have to be a little cautious especially if they are going the US college route and/or are American born. Those are things that fans aren't privy to.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

During the draft broadcast, once of the analysts was an agent (I can't recall who it was), and he said that more and more these days, young players getting drafted, particularly ones going the university route, have specific teams they want to play for and it does affect who drafts them and when. When I see someone like Perreault (NYR) falling to 23 and Moore (CHI) falling to 19, I kind of assume that is why they may have fallen despite the pre-draft ranking of where most people have them being drafted.

I am just totally speculating, but I would bet that is why the Flames (and others) stayed away from those two. It also makes me thing that Honzek interviewed well and gave the impression that he would be happy to play in Calgary. Conroy stressed that they wanted to target players that wanted to play in Calgary, and I think that thought process likely extended into the draft. Everyone drafted after Honzek have some kind of concerns or unknowns. We are focusing on him because that is who the Flames picked, but if you dig up scouting reports for most players drafted after him, you'll find they had similar projections or potential concerns. The only 2 players drafted after Honzek that I am keeping a close eye on are Barlow and Pelikka.

Even considering all that, I think Honzek was a solid pick at #16 regardless. He was ranked by various sources to go anywhere from 10 to 24, and his aggregate was around 21 I believe, so not an off-the-board pick by any means, especially when you consider that teams have to think about other factors that scouts who only watch games, have no knowledge about.

I think these are great points. Not going to disagree.

Also, the Rangers have been poor at developing their prospects. I think Perrault was a good value pick, but there's a chance the Rangers mess him up.

And I don't think Honzek was much of a reach really, like you said, he went around where projected. And I think that if he does turn into 2nd line player, he'd have more value as a 60 point player than someone like Phillips would as a 60 point player, if that makes sense.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Coronato put up ridiculous numbers in the USHL though so there was some evidence that this guy is a natural scorer. I just don't see a point in putting these guys on a pedestal immediately after a draft. It's just setting yourself up for disappointment as most of them don't fulfil or exceed their potential and that leads to disappointed posters calling them busts because they anointed them immediately as a blue chipper because Cosentino (the guy rarely has a bad thing to say about any prospect) or someone said he could be a star or something. I think Honzek has potential to be an NHL player based on his size alone but most of these players don't work out and you just have to hope the Flames scouts hit the jackpot and he turns out to be even better than his draft projections. To be fair if they would have picked Barlow for example I would have felt the same way as he is also didn't have a high floor projection and more of a middle 6 guy.

It's hardly putting a player on a pedestal (I never do that) by suggesting his upside is a top line player.

Nobody has drawn a line in the sand here between lines 1, 2 or 3.

[traptor]

Definitely think there were contextual factors at play here beyond best player available.
It's more along the lines of best player available for us.

Younger players are having more control in where they play. I'm sure that applies to top prospects as well.
Calgary is probably extremely cautious of who they draft right now, especially when it comes to American/College players.

I also think that management had it in mind that we needed to add some skilled forwards with size.

I think if Yager or Danielson got to us we may have gone that direction.

At the end of the day it's still a bit of a crapshoot. Better prospects end up busting all the time and guys selected in the 20's pop off and become top line players.
They just make the best educated guess they can based on what they know.

It's not like Honzek was a reach so at this point I'm pretty optimistic about it. Thought it was a good draft overall

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

So does top 9. So does top 12. Kadri is a top 6 forward. He's not a top line player. Other prospects, like Perrault, are much more projectable as top line players than is Honzek. I recommend looking at Bader's projection cards. The difference is gigantic. So are the probabilities.

I still voted for Honzek 3rd in the prospects poll.
He's a solid prospect.

But if someone is most likely to become a second line player, that's not worth a 16th OA pick in a strong draft. Especially when several much higher ceiling options are available.

So prospects should be evaluated solely on a single stat metric? Cool. Why is the organization bothering to pay for scouts? All we need is Bader cards!

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Nope. Listed exactly what the projection was. You listed what their absolute upside would be. Massive difference. Players rarely achieve upside which is why projections for bands are provided. But continue on believing what you like. Doesn’t change what the player is.

Remember when that Spurs troll called you an over the top homer?

[dino7c]

We don't know what the player is at the NHL level, that is the fun of it


Gaudreau was too small to play in the NHL remember?

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The draft season can't be accurately gauged because of his injury. Prior to it, he was tearing it up. Still ends up with top ranked 5 on 5 production and a monster share of his team's offense. He was a catalyst.

But if you look at the tools there, the skill, the size, the release..

He's as safe a bet as any to be an every day NHLer.

They might not end up with a top liner, but they're less likely with Honzek than a number of other options at 16 to end up with a guy that busts altogether.

They should have a player at least, with plenty of room for him to grow beyond that.

It's not the sexiest pick from afar, but you realize it's quietly a solid one when you look further.

They're banking a little more on potential than some other picks with glowing stats following healthy seasons, but there's plenty of reason for optimism that he will realize that potential .

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Groot

Remember when that Spurs troll called you an over the top homer?

Good times.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

So does top 9. So does top 12. Kadri is a top 6 forward. He's not a top line player. Other prospects, like Perrault, are much more projectable as top line players than is Honzek. I recommend looking at Bader's projection cards. The difference is gigantic. So are the probabilities.

I still voted for Honzek 3rd in the prospects poll.
He's a solid prospect.

But if someone is most likely to become a second line player, that's not worth a 16th OA pick in a strong draft. Especially when several much higher ceiling options are available.

If you say someone is top 6 you are saying they can play on the top line, since the top line is part of the top 6. Otherwise just say he’s a second line player at best.

Bader has sone small player bias IMO.